Friday, November 26, 2010

Western US Buried in Snow


Brrrr.

Austin Forecast: Cold, windy, depressing, no-mo-fooball!

As if the observations at Austin International aren't cold and blustery enough, the forecast is for the University of Austin to drop football down to the 1-AA level, and maybe get invited to their playoffs, since they weren't good enough for the Texas State high school playoffs!




24 Hour Summary
Time
EST (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 11 AM (16) Nov 26 46.0 (7.8) 14.0 (-10.0) 30.31 (1026) N 18
10 AM (15) Nov 26 43.0 (6.1) 14.0 (-10.0) 30.29 (1025) N 18
9 AM (14) Nov 26 42.1 (5.6) 14.0 (-10.0) 30.25 (1024) N 21
8 AM (13) Nov 26 42.1 (5.6) 12.9 (-10.6) 30.2 (1022) N 21
7 AM (12) Nov 26 43.0 (6.1) 14.0 (-10.0) 30.19 (1022) N 21
6 AM (11) Nov 26 42.1 (5.6) 17.1 (-8.3) 30.17 (1021) N 21
5 AM (10) Nov 26 43.0 (6.1) 12.9 (-10.6) 30.14 (1020) N 21
4 AM (9) Nov 26 44.1 (6.7) 10.9 (-11.7) 30.15 (1020) N 21
3 AM (8) Nov 26 44.1 (6.7) 12.0 (-11.1) 30.15 (1020) N 20
2 AM (7) Nov 26 44.1 (6.7) 12.0 (-11.1) 30.13 (1020) N 28
1 AM (6) Nov 26 46.0 (7.8) 15.1 (-9.4) 30.11 (1019) N 26
Midnight (5) Nov 26 46.0 (7.8) 18.0 (-7.8) 30.1 (1019) N 21

Thursday, November 25, 2010

GLORY Mission to Get Answers on "Solar Constant"

The Glory Mission's Judith Lean Discusses Solar Variability - NASA
Though the sun's brightness was once thought to be constant, NASA has launched a series of satellite instruments that have helped show it actually fluctuates in conjunction with cycles of solar activity.

With a new sun-watching instrument called the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) scheduled to launch on NASA's Glory satellite in November, we spoke with Judith Lean, a member of the Glory science team and solar physicist at the United States Naval Research Laboratory, about solar cycles and what scientists have learned about solar variability in the last three decades.

What is a solar cycle and how long does it last?
For more than a century, people have noticed that sunspots become more and less frequent on an 11-year-cycle. That’s the main solar cycle we look at. The 11-year-cycle is really part of a 22-year-cycle of the sun’s magnetic field polarity. The changes are driven by something called the solar dynamo, a process that generates and alters the strength of the magnetic field erupting onto the sun's surface. It's the sun’s magnetic field that produces sunspots as it moves up through the sun's surface.

How much does the brightness of the sun change throughout the cycle?
It's a small amount. Total solar irradiance typically increases by about 0.1 percent during periods of high activity. However, certain wavelengths of sunlight—such as ultraviolet—vary more.

What causes irradiance to change?
It's really the balance of sunspots, which are cooler dark areas of the sun, and faculae, bright areas that appear near sunspots. The faculae overwhelm the sunspots, so the sun is actually brighter when there are more sunspots.

Can changes in the sun affect our climate?
If it wasn’t for the sun, we wouldn’t have a climate. The sun provides the energy to drive our climate, and even small changes in the sun's output can have a direct impact on Earth. There are two ways irradiance changes can alter climate: One is the direct effect from altering the amount of radiation reaching Earth. The second is that solar variability can affect ozone production, which can in turn affect the climate.

Does the 0.1 percent change in irradiance affect Earth's climate much?
Solar irradiance changes are likely connected to dynamic aspects of climate—things like the coupling of the atmosphere and ocean—El NiƱo being one example—or aspects of atmospheric circulation, such as the Hadley cells that dominate in the tropics.
But we've done a great deal of modeling, and the sun doesn't explain the global warming that's occurred over the last century. We think changes in irradiance account for about 10 percent global warming at most. Of course, there are also longer cycles that may have an impact on climate, but our understanding of them is limited.

There is disagreement about whether the last three cycles have gotten successively brighter. Has that been resolved?
No, it hasn't. The best understanding is that irradiance cycles have been about the same in the last three cycles, but one group reports an increasing trend whereas another group says that current levels are now the lowest of the entire 30-year record. I believe these differences are due to instrumental effects, but we really need continual, highly accurate, and stable long-term measurements to resolve this. The radiometer aboard Glory—the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM)--will be a big step, quite an exciting advance.

What part of the 11-year cycle will Glory observe?
Glory is going is to observe during the ascending phase of the cycle. The ascending phase is relatively rapid, so we should get to the peak in about three years. Then there will be about two years or more when solar activity is high and stays high. About five years from now, activity will start to come down again so that by, say, 2019 we will be at low levels again.

What do you hope Glory will find?
The Glory TIM has been calibrated more rigorously than previous instruments, so it should help a lot in getting the absolute brightness of the sun. In addition to recording the ever-changing irradiance levels, it should measure irradiance precisely enough that will make it feasible to determine whether solar irradiance is stable or changing, if the measurements continue long enough into the future.

Are there aspects of the solar variability that TIM won't measure?
Yes. The Glory TIM looks at overall irradiance, but it doesn't measure how specific parts of the spectrum—the ultraviolet, visible, or infrared—are changing. Some of the largest changes actually happen at the shortest wavelengths, so it's extremely important that we look at the spectrum. There's an instrument related to TIM called the Solar Irradiance Monitor (SIM) aboard the SORCE satellite that lets us see how individual parts of the spectrum vary, and it's also critical.

The sun has been exceptionally quiet in recent years. Are we entering a prolonged solar minimum?
There was a period from mid-2008 to mid-2009 when the sun was without sunspots for many days. It was probably the quietest period we've seen since the first total solar irradiance measurements. But we didn't go into a prolonged minimum because the sun still had a few active regions – not sunspots, but small bright faculae regions -- and we could see the irradiance continue to fluctuate throughout this very quiet period. Now there are more dark sunspots and more bright faculae on the sun’s surface, so activity is ramping up and a new cycle--solar cycle 24--has started

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Droughtbuster in the Ohio Valley


Up to 5 inches of rain, in a widespread event over the Ohio Valley. This area has been in drought since the late spring. Should come to an abrupt, and possibly flooding conclusion.

A "Blue Norther" Heading to South Texas


Just in time for the Aggie BEAT-DOWN of the Shorthorns on Thursday night. The graphic on the Lubbck NWS site was rather ominous. Hopefully they don't mean the last warm day EVER! Send in the wooly mammoths and the giant sloths. The ice is returning! - HLG

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Great Thanksgiving Blizzard of 2010?

Global warming is doing really strange things lately! Help Uncl Al, Help!!!

http://www.accuweather.com/video/432724657001/blizzard-and-extreme-cold.asp

Monday, November 22, 2010

Giant Plankton Bloom Off Namibia: 11-22-2010

Fun in the Skies Continued

If getting groped by strangers isn't fun enough, and who says it isn't, Delta had much more fun this weekend with three, count em three, engine mishaps, and oh yea, the tail scraped on emergency landing. Happy Thanksgiving! - HLG

Three Delta passenger planes forced to make emergency landings within an hour of each other after engine problemsBy Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 8:08 AM on 22nd November 2010
Comments (39) Add to My Stories
Two Delta Airlines passenger planes carrying 400 people were forced to make emergency landings within an hour of each other yesterday due to engine troubles.
Delta Flight 30 from New York to Moscow returned safely to JFK International Airport after an engine problem was detected shortly after take-off.
The jet carrying 200 people landed at around 5.45pm local time.
Less than one hour later, Delta Flight 125 bound for Los Angeles had to return to Hartsfield-Jackson Airport in Atlanta, Georgia, after declaring an engine failure.
Separate incidents: Two Delta Airlines Boeing 767s were forced to make emergency landings yesterday due to engine problems (file picture)

The plane, also a Boeing 767 carrying 190 passengers and 11 crew, scraped its tail upon landing at 6.40pm, according to the Federal Aviation Administration, but taxied to the gate without assistance.

There were no reports of injuries in either incident.
FAA spokeswoman Holly Baker said earlier reports of a fire one of the wings of the Boeing 767 that landed at JFK were incorrect.
She said the plane had taken off from the airport and was en route to Moscow when it reported engine problems and turned back.

More than 100 firefighters rushed to that scene.
The air traffic control tower at JFK International Airport. Delta Flight 30 from New York to Moscow reported engine problems shortly after take-off and turned back

The New York Fire Department said it had dispatched 25 units and 106 firefighters to the airport after reports came in shortly after 5pm that the airborne jet was on fire and dumping fuel.

Long-haul aircraft that are forced to land shortly after take-off must dump almost their entire fuel load before landing, otherwise the undercarriage cannot support the extra weight.
Delta didn't immediately respond to a call requesting

Austin In for a Cold Snap

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. A less than 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Much colder. Lows in the mid 30s


And then a SMACK-DOWN from the Aggies, as they knock the T-Sippers out of bowl consideration for the first time in a generation. Ouch!

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Twelve Days Left in 2010 Hurricane Season


Will we get "Virginie" out of the disturbance in the NW Carib?

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

HEATHER TESCH - Smoking Hot Weather Channel Girl

Heather Tesch - Heather Tesch - Heather Tesch

Weather Tesch - Weather Tesch - Weather Tesch

BB

TROPICAL LOW IN OKLAHOMA

Ok, not really - but the NHC has been selecting a few dubious systems to assign the "tropical" status this year.

BB

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Global Warming Massive Snowstorm in Upper Midwest

Snowstorm causes 400 Minn. crashes; 2 die in Wis.
Published November 13, 2010
Associated Press
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Parts of the Upper Midwest dug out from a heavy snowfall Saturday that caused more than 400 traffic accidents in Minnesota, and wintry conditions also were being blamed for a collision in northern Wisconsin that killed two people.

Nearly a foot of snow had fallen in parts of the Twin Cities area by Saturday evening, downing trees and causing sporadic power outages.

The storm that began late Friday night was blamed for a collision Saturday morning that killed both drivers and left a passenger hospitalized. The sheriff's department in Wisconsin's Bayfield County said the storm produced "rapidly deteriorating road conditions" that likely contributed to the crash.

Kevin Kraujalis of the National Weather Service's Duluth office estimated that Bayfield County had a couple of inches of snow on the ground when the collision occurred. The meteorologist said the county had about 5 inches as of 6 p.m. Saturday.

The Minnesota State Patrol responded to 401 crashes as of 4 p.m, with 45 of them involving minor injuries, Patrol Capt. Matt Langer said. There were no other immediate reports of fatalities or major injuries.

"People will still see snowflakes across much of Minnesota (on Sunday) but it won't be adding up to anything," he said.

Jack Serier, a commander with the St. Paul Police Department, said officers dealt with 20 to 30 car accidents by about noon, with many of the collisions involving four or five vehicles. Drivers were being careful, he said, but they were skidding on a glaze of ice that developed under much of the snow pack.

"There was nothing reckless," he said. "But when they hit that ice, no matter what they tried to do they spun out of control."

The snow left the football field unusable at Minnesota State-Mankato, prompting the postponement of the school's game against Minnesota Duluth. School officials and conference administrators were considering their options for rescheduling the game.

The football game between Gustavus Adolphus College and Carleton College was pushed back to 1 p.m. Sunday.

Meteorologists said Ashland and Bayfield counties could get 4 to 6 inches of snow on Sunday, while parts of western and north-central Wisconsin could see about an inch.

The snow in both states wasn't expected to stick around for long. Recent warm weather meant the ground is still relatively warm, meteorologists said, and temperatures are expected to be in the mid- to high 30s for the next few days

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Massive Gobi Dust Plume in Sea of Japan


A very large dust/sand storm from the Gobi Desert made it's way in a thick plume over the Sea of Japan this weekend. - HLG

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Remnants of TC "Jal" and Massive Indian Fires


The remnants of former TC "Jal", interacting with large fires in northern India, pulling a thousands-of-miles long smoke plume into the Arabian Sea. - HLG

Arc-shaped clouds in Indian Ocean


MODIS "people" say this is an observation of "atmospheric gravity waves". I am NOT buying that. These clearly are oceanic internal waves, which have enough of a surface roughness/temp-change expression to have allowed the tropical clouds to billow up. What say the brain trust? - HLG

FWSAAB CONTINUES ELECTRIC CLIMB UP THE TOP SCIENCE BLOG LIST!

http://www.wikio.com/sources/weathergeeks.blogspot.com-ZXrc/stats

You have proven time and time again that only intelligent, sophisticated and interested readers visit our website.  To our loyal fans - who put us close to the top 200 of science web blogs - we thank you!

FWSAAB Business Line Office

Mt Merapi Ash Cloud

TC "Jal", Mt Marapi, what will happen in Japan?

The Presidential disaster tour continues. First TC "JAL" threatened India during the trip, then the stay in Indonesia had to be shortened by Mt Merapi ash (seen in MODIS image). Now the trip turns to Korea and Japan. What disaster's are left? Earthquakes? Tsunamis? - HLG

MOTHER NATURE HATES NATURE

http://scienceblogs.com/tetrapodzoology/2010/11/lightning_kills_giraffe_kills_geese.php?utm_source=networkbanner&utm_medium=link

Story from Science Blogs - Looks like Al Qaeda (aka Mother Nature) is going after animals with lightning strikes.

(Hard to find a story that tops HLGs).

BB

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Mystery Missle in the Sky?? Huh??

Missile Shot Off Los Angeles Still a Mystery for Pentagon Officials
Published November 09, 2010

A video that appears to show a missile launch off the coast of California is so far "unexplained" by anyone in the military, a Pentagon spokesman told reporters Tuesday morning

Col. Dave Lapan said he is not able to concur with an official from North American Aerospace Defense Command/U.S. Northern Command who told Fox News earlier that there was "no threat to the homeland."

Lapan said the military doesn't know exactly what the so-called mystery missile was so can't say it's harmless.

A local CBS affiliate in Los Angeles on Monday evening captured on video the image of the "spectacular" projectile flying about 35 miles out to sea, west of Los Angeles and north of Catalina Island.

The Missile Defense Agency told Fox News it did not launch any test missile Monday night that could explain the dramatic images. The Navy and the Air Force were also unable to offer an explanation.

Lapan said it does not appear that whatever was flying was part of a "regularly scheduled missile test." He noted that before a missile test, notifications are sent to mariners and airmen. This does not appear to be the case here.

At this point, the military is working only with video taken from the local news camera, and NORAD and Northcom apparently were not able to detect the contrail on their own.

It appears from the video, Lapan said, the object was launched from the water and not U.S. soil, though at this point there is no way to be certain.

If a test missile or an accidental missile was launched in the region it would have either come from Naval Air Station Point Mugu or Vandenberg Air Force Base. At sea it could have come from a U.S. submarine or a surface ship. But so far, it all remains a mystery.

Click here to see the video captured by KCBS in Los Angeles.

Fox News' Steve Centanni and Justin Fishel contributed to this report.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Only Two Tropical Names Left for 2010 in th ATL

Will we use them both before the season ends?

Will we make it into the Greek letters?

If so, how many Greek Storms will there be?

Saturday, November 6, 2010

What do Aggies do with Okies in an Aggie Bowl?

Make they go Snap, Crackle, AND POP!!!!

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Amazing Images of Comet Hartley 2


Congrats to NASA on the amazingly re-pgrammed Deep Impact mission, which became EPOXI, and just took some of the best images ever of an active comet nucles, Hartley-2. - HLG

More Signs of the Apocalypse


President Obama is on his way to India for the first time, as an out of season TC forms, and heads west towards the subcontinent. Surely another sign!

Another Chapter of Fun with Flying

Qantas A380 superjumbo in Singapore emergency landing
AFP – A troubled Qantas Airbus A380 plane is seen after an emergency landing at the Changi International airport … .by Philip Lim Philip Lim – Thu Nov 4, 3:57 am ET
SINGAPORE (AFP) – A Qantas A380 with more than 450 people on board made a dramatic forced landing in Singapore Thursday, trailing smoke from a blackened engine, in the Airbus superjumbo's first mid-air emergency.

Australia's Qantas Airways, which prides itself as the world's safest airline with no fatal jet crashes in its 90-year history, said it was grounding all six of its A380s following the incident.

The double-decker plane carrying 433 passengers and 26 crew developed engine trouble just six minutes into a flight from Singapore to Sydney, and dumped fuel over Indonesia before returning to Singapore's Changi Airport.

There were no injuries to passengers or crew, officials said.

Metal debris including a part bearing the airline's red-and-white "flying kangaroo" emblem slammed into industrial and residential areas of the Indonesian city of Batam, opposite Singapore.

Witness Noor Kanwa described a "loud explosion in the air" and saw "metal shards coming down from the sky".

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said flight QF32 had experienced "a significant engine failure" to one of its four Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines. The British engine maker pledged to work with Qantas to identify the problem.

"We will suspend those A380 services until we are completely confident that Qantas safety requirements have been met," Joyce told reporters in Sydney.

Airbus, which had bet its future on the commercial viability of the world's largest passenger plane, said the Qantas incident had been "significant" but stressed the A380 was safe to fly on three engines.

"We are not playing down the incident, but it is covered in the certification procedures," a spokesman for the French-based company said.

German passenger Ulf Waschbusch said there was a loud boom and flames on the plane's left wing soon after take-off.

"Something ruptured the left wing," Waschbusch, a technology company executive based in Singapore, told AFP after disembarking.

Six fire engines swarmed the A380 on landing, spraying liquid on it, according to an AFP reporter at the Singapore airport.

One of the engines on the plane's left wing was blackened and its rear cowling was missing.

The plane circled over Indonesian territory for nearly two hours, dumping fuel prior to the emergency landing, Waschbusch said.

"Everyone was surprisingly calm on the plane. We are not going crazy at all," he said. "The crew helped tremendously. I felt in good hands. Qantas did a great job in keeping us safe."

Another witness on the ground in Batam said he heard a "thunderous" sound, and said residents came out of their homes to observe the superjumbo circling as it used up its fuel to ensure a safer landing.

"Then three or four pieces of metal fell from the sky, each not longer than a metre (yard). They fell into a field," added the witness, 35-year-old driver Ricky.

Qantas shares had been up 10 cents at 2.97 Australian dollars before erroneous reports that one of its jets had crashed in Indonesia sent them plunging to 2.82 dollars. The stock ended the day up two cents at 2.89 dollars.

After 18 months of production delays notably caused by wiring problems, the A380's first commercial flight, operated by Singapore Airlines, was on the same Singapore-Sydney route in October 2007.

Since the launch, fuel and computer glitches have grounded several A380s and at least one Air France flight was forced to turn around and land in New York after problems with its navigation system in November 2009.

In April, a Qantas A380 damaged tyres on landing from Singapore in Sydney, showering sparks and scaring passengers.

A total of 37 A380s are now flying commercially. Apart from Qantas and Singapore Airlines, the other operators are Emirates, Air France-KLM and Lufthansa. Another 234 A380s are on order from airlines, according to Airbus.

Singapore Airlines and Air France said they had no plans to ground their own fleets.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Outer Bands of "TOMAS" on Jamaican Radar Mon


Too bad there isn't a Haiti radar, or even Dominican (that I can find). Does anyone know if the DR has a weather radar? - HLG

NHC Just Caught up to FWSAAB

.. but for some reason needed a plane to confirm it. Gotta justify those budgets!



000
WTNT31 KNHC 031753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS RE-FORMING FARTHER NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

Center of "TOMAS" Re-organizing to the East?

Appears that way in the visible, and the Hurricane Hunters are on the way. That would not be good news for Haiti, which looks like it will take a direct hit from whatever this thing is, at the least a big rain-maker, which is always a disaster in Haiti, even before millions moved into tents. - HLG

Monday, November 1, 2010

"Virginie" forming where "Tomas" did?


Not even a yellow-circle yet from the NHC, but they appear to have their hands full with the yo-yo behavior of "Tomas" and it's intensity. Don't be surprised if we get "Virginie" from this disturbance, and then we only have "Walter" to go before we go Greek! - HLG

INTENSITY MODELS SUK

Well last time I wrote here, "TOMAS" was just becoming a Cat 2, forecast to stay at that, then become a strong 3, somewhere between Haiti and Jamaica.

They the storm raced out from under the convection, and looked to be dying.

Speed ahead 24 hours and "TOMAS" looks like it is rapidly re-organizing, and could be a hurricane again sometime within 24 hours. The late turn in the forecast, straight over Haiti is still in the official forecast, and can't be good news for Haiti.

HLG