Early Winter Outbreak in NW Europe

As Dr BB points out. There has been unusually early snow and cold in NW Europe. What in the name of Al "Global Warming" Gore is going on here?

-HLG

Serious Snow Seen form Space in Tibet!

Worst snow storm in Tibet. Harbinger of impending advance of the next ice-age?

HLG

Global Warming Out of Control!

7 killed in Tibet's 'worst snowstorm'



BEIJING, China (CNN) -- At least seven people have been found dead after "the worst snowstorm on record in Tibet," China's state-run news agency reported Friday.

About 1,350 people were rescued in Lhunze County -- another 300 were trapped -- after nearly five feet (1.5 meters) of snow blanketed much of Tibet this week.


The storm caused buildings to collapse, blocked roads and killed about 144,000 head of cattle, the state-run China Daily newspaper reported.

The seven people who died either froze to death or were killed as a result of collapsing buildings, and one person is still missing, China Daily said.

- HLG

TEHUANTEPEC

I've been watching satellite loops around the Gulf of Tehauntepec. Conditions are conducive to an upwelling and high wave event - as can be seen in the following images from the Naval Oceanographic Office.

Brings back old memories...

BB

Meteorology Coordinator in Denver

Interesting Job Notice for Clipper Wind Power




Meteorology Coordinator

SUMMARY: The Meteorology Coordinator will work with Meteorology Team to provide coordination of and logistical support to the various technical and non-technical tasks related to the installation and maintenance of anemometry equipment and collection and management of wind data and metadata.

DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES:

Meteorological Tower Installations (60%)
* Work with Meteorology team to identify locations where meteorological towers are needed at each project and within what timeframe.
* Engage land and permitting teams as needed to ensure contracts are in place with landowners and appropriate permits are obtained for tower locations.
* Manage competitive bid process for installation services and direct the work of multiple contractors by phone and email remotely, including off-hours and travelling as needed.
* Identify equipment configuration that is appropriate for a given site and procure all necessary hardware in coordination with installation contractors.
* Complete meteorological equipment installations on time and ensure installation documentation is complete and accurate.
* Ensure that all meteorological equipment is properly operating after installation.
* Ensure metadata is promptly and properly represented on the internal database and for display on internal website.

Meteorological Tower Maintenance and Repair (25%)
* Improve the success rate of remote data collection by installing new equipment and promptly identifying towers that fail.
* Work with Anemometry Analyst and internal website to detect sensors and other equipment that may have been damaged.
* Rapidly respond to tower repairs and complete routine maintenance of aging towers to avoid significant loss of data or data quality degradation.
* Manage the work of multiple contractors to perform all necessary tower maintenance and repairs, including the procurement of repaired or replaced equipment.
* Travel to perform tower maintenance on-site, including data retrieval and the replacement of damaged equipment.

Meteorological Data Management (15%)
* Ensure all tower locations and metadata is confirmed as accurate and properly represented on meteorological database and internal website.
* Perform data QC on tower data as required for internal analyses, tower sensor evaluation.
* Provide raw and QC'd data in required formats for various business processes, proposals and 3rd party analysts as requested.

MINIMUM JOB REQUIREMENTS:
* Candidates preferably have a degree in Meteorology, a technical or logistically-related field with 2 years of relevant experience.? Specific experience in logistics, purchasing, coordination of field work / contractors is preferred.? This position may require traveling in the U.S., Canada and Mexico to meteorological tower sites to perform initial site evaluations and to oversee wind energy meteorological tower installations, including location approval, supervision of installation and maintenance/repair of towers
* Experience desired with mapping software/GIS, database use and interaction.

KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS, AND ABILITIES REQUIRED:
* Knowledge of mapping/GIS software (specifically, ArcView/ArcInfo and/or XMap).
* Computer expertise in MS Office suite and databases a plus; should be web-savvy.
* Able to effectively manage multiple activities with multiple components simultaneously
* Ability to comprehend and assimilate technical information about meteorological instrumentation, steel tubular and lattice towers, instrument booms, electronic logging and transmitting equipment
* Works well as a team member, regularly communicating with team members and able to adapt to changing priorities without difficulty
* Strong organizational and job-task prioritization skills are required
* High-level written and oral communication skills
* Ability to create, build and manage relationships with vendors, crews, contractors of varying types in a professional, courteous and efficient manner.

WORKING CONDITIONS:
* Moderate business office noise (cubicle environment, business office with phones, conference calls, printers, light traffic)
* Travel of approximately 30% to project sites
* Able to lift up to 50 lbs.

BIG HONKIN' HIGH

Almost the entire continental U.S. will be smothered by the Katrina of High Pressure Systems - a 1045 mb low centered over the bread basket of our nation. This means that cool temperatures, light winds and abundant sunshine will be in store for most of the nation.

So where are the warnings? Why can't we give this beast a name? What about the children? Should someone be concerned about the state of our nation's weather?

I for one will take this opportunity to watch the Weather Channel this morning to see what Capt. Nicole Mitchell is wearing. She will not disappoint. She will not let this nation down.

Yes, the weather is boring today... By the way, HLG, where did you get your death stats for Yemen? Last count was 61 dead, from news reports that I read this morning. (sorry non sequitur from the original post...)

BB

Final Words on Dealy TC 03 "B" in Yemen

Well no one has come forward with what the "B" stands for, but this storm is one for the records books anyway.

Reliable records from Yemen (one of the poorest countries in the world)are hard to come by, but if you piece the news reports together it is clear that TC 03 "B" caused at least:

100's of deaths,

100's more "missing", probably dead

10's of thousands newly homeless as their mud-brick hovels were washed away.

All of this from a cyclone that was barely ever a true TD level of storm.

Amazing.

HLG

Beautiful Color Image of TC03 B in Gulf of Aden

You just don't see many tropical systems surrounds on nearly all sides by the driest of deserts.

HLG

TC 03B Arabian Sea

Anyone know what this storm has a "B" in the Arabian Sea?

TC 03 "B"?

Anyway, this is a nice shot from "KALPANA" Indian Weather Satellite. Don't see many tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Aden.

Cancel that vacation trip (next meeting of WMO?) in Yemen! Why? Because it is raining and it NEVER RAINS there.

HLG

2008 - MORE ICE

Fortunately, the Arctic ice minimum (the spatial coverage of ice in the Arctic) was larger than in 2007 - when it looked like all the ice would melt away. I remember the good ol' days when Larster would analyze his one GIUK image and say "Too much ice, no fronts to analyze." Then he would go back to his desk and fall asleep.

Now look at him....
BB

Indian Ocean TC-3 Goes into Yemen

Don't see this everyday.

HLG

IN RESPONSE TO HLG's X-FILES

They are watching...

BB

More Weird Aviation News: Drunk Pilots and UFOs!

'Drunk' United Airlines Pilot Arrested Before Takeoff
Tuesday, October 21, 2008



LONDON — A Unied Airlines pilot was arrested in a jet’s cockpit minutes before take-off Sunday on suspicion of being drunk.

Hundreds of stunned passengers watched police march the 44-year-old American first officer off the Boeing 777.

The United Airlines flight to San Francisco was delayed at Heathrow for almost three hours while a replacement co-pilot was found.

Cops swooped after a tip-off from ground staff, who suspected the airman was boozing before the 5,300-mile flight.

One stunned passenger said: “We couldn’t believe what we were seeing. The pilot was frog-marched off the aircraft.

“A couple of police officers stormed on to the plane as we were all sitting down and went straight for the cockpit.

“We didn’t have a clue what was happening and we were kept waiting on the plane for hours.

“It is horrifying to think we were apparently so close to being flown thousands of miles by somebody who could have been drinking.

“It was a horrible start to our trip but if it wasn’t for the person who called the cops, our dream holiday could have become a nightmare.”

The pilot was arrested at 9am on board flight 955 after failing a breathalyser.

He was bailed and ordered to return to Heathrow airport police station in January.

The legal limit for pilots is nine micrograms of alcohol in 100 millilitres of breath. The drink-drive limit is 35 micrograms. If convicted, the officer would face up to two years in jail.

U.S. Pilot Ordered to Shoot Down UFO Over England
Monday, October 20, 2008



The Sun


Apr. 2008: A visitor from outer space? A 'UFO' is photographed over Dudley, England.
A former Top Gun said Sunday he was ordered to shoot down a massive UFO over Norwich, England, 50 years ago.

RAF controllers told U.S. pilot Milton Torres to "lock on" and launch all 24 of his rockets over the city.

But as he came within seconds of firing at the alien intruder — "the size of an aircraft carrier" on his radar — it vanished at 10,000 mph.

The amazing close encounter is revealed in secret Ministry of Defense X-Files which are being declassified Monday.

Milton said, "It was some kind of alien snooping over England. I guess we'll never know what it was."

The incident happened in 1957 when Milton was a 26-year-old U.S. Air Force lieutenant based at RAF Manston in Kent, England.


UK: Jet captain reported UFO sightingStory Highlights



LONDON, England (CNN) -- Thousands of documents about reported UFO sightings -- ranging from calm accounts by professional pilots to unhinged rants about the extraterrestrial menace -- have been released by the British Ministry of Defence.


Taiwan resident Lee Chun-hung took these pictures showing a ball of fire trailing across the sky.

The 4,500 pages cover sightings that were reported from 1986 through 1992. The British military released them to a curious public as part of a four-year project to transfer all such documents to the National Archives.

One highlight from the batch released Monday involves the captain of an Italian airliner. He shouted "Look out!" to his co-pilot in April 1991 after claiming to see a beige "missile-shaped object" shoot past the cockpit.

In that instance, the defence ministry ruled out a missile and "all the usual explanations," wrote David Clarke, a UFO expert and journalism instructor at Sheffield Hallam University, who worked with the National Archives to prepare the new materials for release.

"The end result was this was a genuine UFO and the file was simply closed," he wrote. "There was nothing more they could do."

The newly released documents also carry an account by a U.S. Air Force pilot who says he was told to shoot down an unidentified flying craft over eastern England. But before he could fire, the object disappeared.

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The next day, a man arrived to debrief the pilot and "he was told in no uncertain terms that what he had seen on his radar was top secret and he wasn't to speak about it to anyone," Clarke wrote.

The first set of files was made available to members of the public in May. It covered reported UFO sightings from 1978 to 1987, and included hundreds of police reports taken from witnesses who described seeing lights or strange objects in the sky.

People who reported having seen UFOs typically describe various shapes and colors of lights, moving in formation or hovering in the sky. Witnesses reported orange, red, white and green lights that were diamond-shaped, square, or cigar-shaped.

They reported them to police, who have a standard 16-question form specifically for UFO sightings.

"The vast majority of them are just ordinary people who've seen something unusual and thought that they ought to tell someone about it," Clarke has said.

The Ministry of Defence said it examined the reports solely to determine whether enemy aircraft had infiltrated British airspace. Once it was determined that no enemy aircraft were in the sky, it did not investigate further.

"The Ministry of Defence has no other interest or role regarding UFO matters and does not consider questions regarding the existence or otherwise of extraterrestrial life-forms," it said in May.

That left many incidents unexplained.

Subtropical Swirly Thingy Alert!

And yet nothing from the NHC!

What happened to all the "Special Subtropical Disturbance Statements" of previous seasons?

HLG

"IKE" Mysery Continues

Search is on for caskets unearthed by IkeStory Highlights
Hurricane Ike washed dozens of caskets from graves in Louisiana, Texas





IN THE MARSH OF CAMERON PARISH, Louisiana (AP) -- Joe Johnson craned his neck from the airboat as it circled a patch of brown marsh grass. The runaway coffin was not where it was supposed to be.


A coffin disgorged by Hurricane Ike is found in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, on October 8.

Johnson pulled up to a pile of rocks, killed the motor and hopped out. After a few minutes of scouring along the tall, reedlike grass, he flagged down two fishermen.

"Can you possibly take me along the shoreline?" Johnson asked. "I'm looking for a casket."

Beyond the usual, dismal rebuilding, Hurricane Ike left another grim task when it struck last month: Its 13-foot storm surge washed an estimated 200 caskets out of their graves, ripping through most of Cameron Parish's 47 cemeteries and others in southwest Louisiana and coastal Texas. Some coffins floated miles into the marsh.

At Hollywood Cemetery in Orange, Texas, Ike unearthed about 100 caskets. Dozens more were disgorged in hard-hit Galveston.

Officials in coastal areas have long struggled with interring the dead, as caskets buried in low-lying areas are susceptible to being belched up by floodwaters. Some areas -- most notably New Orleans -- house the dead in above-ground crypts to keep them from drifting away in storms.

For many of the dead forced up by Ike, it wasn't their first disturbance. About 80 percent of the caskets in southwest Louisiana displaced by Ike were rousted by Hurricane Rita just three years earlier, said Zeb Johnson, the Calcasieu Parish deputy coroner who has headed casket recovery efforts for Rita and Ike.

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Of the caskets ejected by Rita in September 2005, 335 were found and reburied, he said. Eighteen were never found.

"Our mother came out for Rita, and now she came out for Ike," said Debra Dyson, a commercial fisher whose house in Cameron was destroyed by Ike.

Dyson said coffins holding her brother-in-law and cousin also were heaved out by Rita. Ike was worse -- the storm thrust out caskets containing her mother, brother-in-law, cousin, niece, three uncles and two aunts.

The one containing Dyson's mother floated to the same spot it came to rest after Rita, 22 miles from the cemetery. Only this time, it didn't take nine months to find it.

"It's hard to lose your home, but the first stop you make is that cemetery just to make sure they're still there, and it's heartbreaking when they're not," said Marilyn Dyson Elizondo, Dyson's sister who lives in Dayton, Texas.

Zeb Johnson helms a team of two employees, volunteer boat pilots and state prisoners to search hundreds of miles of marsh with loaned equipment and haul coffins back to shore. The work is backbreaking, with caskets weighed down by mud in swampy areas teeming with alligators and snakes and the stench of rotting marsh grass.

"It's a job that has to be done," said Joe Johnson, a funeral director and embalmer from Lake Charles who is not related to the deputy coroner.

Joe Johnson's half-hour ride with the fishermen didn't turn up the pink casket reported to the coroner's office, like so many other tips that don't pan out. An hour later, however, he returned with another coffin found in thick grass near a canal bank.

A hole was drilled into the silver metal container to drain out marsh muck and lighten the load for the airboat. Prisoners pulling the casket from the boat tipped it again to empty out more of the fetid water.

The coffin was trucked to the city coliseum in Lake Charles, where the Federal Emergency Management Agency was providing refrigerated trucks to hold caskets until reburial arrangements could be made.

"It's a slow process," Zeb Johnson said.

The Calcasieu Parish Coroner's Office is footing most of the search and recovery bill, which hasn't been tallied. But reburying the dead is estimated to cost as much as $100,000 on top of the recovery costs, with much of the money needed for new caskets and vaults. Zeb Johnson wasn't sure who'll cover that price tag, so he wasn't sure when reburial could begin.

More than 140 coffins had been found by Wednesday, and about 20 others that didn't stray far from their burial sites were quickly reburied. Zeb Johnson doesn't expect to find all of the two dozen or more that remain missing.

"The first day we found caskets that had floated 30 miles from their cemeteries," he said. "You just have caskets floating out in the marsh. At least seven of these caskets ended up in Texas, kind of like boats, they just got out in the currents from the high waters and carried them to Texas."

The identification work in many instances is easier this time around. Bodies found after Rita were tagged with special markers, as were the silver metal coffins in which they were reburied. The coffins include a scroll with the deceased's name, where they were buried and other information.

A few families are considering reburials on higher ground. Cameron Parish's government has proposed requiring deeper burials.

Elizondo, whose family awaits word on the missing Dyson caskets, said her brother was buried in January in a deeper vault than those that housed her missing relatives. Ike didn't disturb her brother, so Elizondo wants to rebury her mother the same way, though it is more expensive.

"It's worth it. That way we have the peace of mind that mom won't be gone again," Elizondo said. "We've even offered to do the backhoe ourselves. We just don't want her coming back up again."

Laptops Nearly Caused QANTAS to Crash?

First it was "clear-air turbulence", which was not true,

Then mechanical error?

Now they are concerned laptops on board that interfered with the A-330 fly-by-wire system!

http://www.foxnews.com/video/index.html?playerId=videolandingpage&streamingFormat=FLASH&referralObject=3150601&referralPlaylistId=playlist


Also, the passenger cell-phone video shown here raises the question. Did that cell-phone cause the glitch? Since you can't turn them on-off during take-off/landing, can you turn them on during a crash-landing? I have left mine on in my pocket before and forgotten it. How many do you think are on during any given jumbo flight with hundreds of people on board?


Have a safe flight. - HLG

MAJOR FREAKIN' DIPOLE

Water Vapor loop is really impressive. David Shere would be impressed.

BB

MAJOR HURRICANE "OMAR" KEEPS GROWING

...OMAR RACING NORTHEASTWARD...WINDS INCREASED TO 125 MPH.... - NHC

Will it ever stop? - HLG

MAJOR FREAKING HURRICANE "OMAR"

The radar signature was clear yesterday that a MAJOR FREAKING HURRICANE was about to develop. Amazingly Dr. Gray forecast this weeks in advance, but Dr NOAA BB missed it as it was nearly complete with major-freaking-hurriance-cyclogensis (MFHC).

Must be something in the weather down under?

HLG

MAJOR HURRICANE "OMAR"

Narrowly threads through the Lesser Antiles. Looks like all the islands missed a direct hit, which is amazing considering how many there are there, and how close they are.

HLG

Go GRAY!

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN ANDNORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

It must be that Dr BB was standing on his head on the other side of the world when he failed to see a MAJOR HURRICANE developing in just a few hours after his post!

GO GRAY!

HLG

Dr Gray's Forecast Looks Like GOLD!

As the tropics heat-up in October it appears our hero, Dr. Gray, made an astounding forecast. We may have not one, but two TS in the Caribbean at roughly the same time. When did that last happen? Speaking of anomolies, when did the last TS form in the eastern Caribbean, south of 15 N, and then immediatly begin to recurve? Very unusual.

For those of you (KF!) who don't like Dr. Gray's climatological based forecasting, how is it any different thatn "30 % Chance of Ioslated Showers, Somewhere Today" that we get from the NWS all the time?

HLG

The Eyes of Texas are Upon You!

"NORBERT" that is!

Will the remnants of "NORBERT" cause flooding rains in West Texas?

The eyes of Texas are upon you,
All the live long day.
The eyes of Texas are upon you,
You cannot get away.
Do not think you can escape them,
At night, or early in the morn'.
The eyes of Texas are upon you,
Till Gabriel blows his horn!

HLG

MODIS Beauty Shot of "NORBERT"

And some internal waves off of Brasil. Can't resist those internal wave shots, from a former life I had as an Oceanographer.

HLG

NORBERT THE NERD?

Another outstanding image from the CIMMS website. Norbert is not a nerd - but some sort of "m" storm on the NHC website. I'm still trying to understand the formation of the eye and eyewall - it just seems to magically appear in a few frames.

BB

New Symbols on NHC Maps

Have you noticed the new symbols NHC has been adding to their maps? There is a new "M" category, which I presume is for "Major" hurricane, but could stand for m@th#rf*ck@r, of a storm, I guess. - HLG

Clear Air Turbulence?

That is what the airline first said. Now the truth is looking more mechanical. BUCKLE THOSE SEATBELTS WHEN HURTLING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE! - Have a safe flight. - HLG

SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- Instruments aboard a Qantas airliner warned of a glitch in its stabilization system when it suddenly rose and plunged, tossing unbelted passengers to the ceiling and injuring more than 70 people, Australian investigators said Wednesday.

The Australian carrier has been plagued by a series of other safety issues recently.

The A330-300 was carrying 303 passengers and 10 crew from Singapore to the Western Australian city of Perth, and was nearing its destination Tuesday when it experienced the sudden altitude changes while flying at 37,000 feet.
The plane made an emergency landing in Learmonth, Western Australia.
Passenger Jim Ford, of Perth, said he thought he was about to die as he watched people being flung around the cabin.
"It was horrendous, absolutely gruesome, terrible, the worst experience of my life," he said after being transferred to Perth airport following the incident.
Air Transport Safety Bureau investigators quarantined the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder and planned to interview crew and passengers. =Julian Walsh, director of the bureau's aviation safety investigation, told reporters that the pilots received electronic messages "relating to some irregularity with the aircraft's elevator control system."
That system helps keep the plane stable and level in flight.
The aircraft then "departed level flight," and climbed approximately 300 feet, he said.
"The crew had initiated the non-normal checklist response actions. The aircraft is then reported to have abruptly pitched nose down," Walsh said.
It was unclear how far in altitude the aircraft dropped during the incident.
Passengers who were not wearing seatbelts flew into the air, some hitting the ceiling of the plane.
Walsh said 14 people had serious, but not life-threatening, injuries such as concussions and broken bones. Thirty other passengers were treated in hospitals for concussions, minor lacerations and fractures. Another 30 people with minor bruises and stiff necks did not require hospital treatment.
Walsh said it was too soon to draw any conclusions about the specific cause of the accident, but that a preliminary report would be released within 30 days.
The ATSB investigation will examine the flight data recorders, on-board computer systems, air traffic control and radar warnings and weather conditions, he said.
A Qantas spokesman said the airline had no immediate response and no update on the incident.
It was the latest in a string of issues to plague the Australian airline since one of its flights was forced to make an emergency landing in the Philippines in July after an oxygen tank exploded on board, ripping a gaping hole in the fuselage

Dr BB Should Look at Visible Sometimes

The TS was clear as can be in the visible yesterday. IR isn't good for everything.

DrBB did make an interesting point (although it may have been lost in his rant). TS "MARCO" is one of the smallest seen in a long, long time in the Atlantic. The measured TS windfield is TEN NAUTICAL MILES in radius. Unreal. This follows on the heals of "IKE", which like "K05" was one of the largest Atlantic storms every measured. This begs the question, much like TS cyclogensis itself: "WTF is going on?" We don't have a clue why some of these are so small and others are so large, more or less why storms form in horrible conditions, and refuse to form in ideal conditions.

HLG

TROPICAL STORM NANA

Tropical Storm Nana quickly formed off the Alabama/Mississippi Coast today, going from a brief shower to tropical storm status in less than 20 minutes. Three Hurricane Hunter planes have flown into the Tropical Storm and found that winds are at least 40 knots in some areas. Panic residents are not sure where to turn since another tropical storm system, this in the guise of a cold front, is headed toward the area from the northwest.
Play the Tropical Storm Marco game - which red blob is actually a tropical storm in this picture? Note, it is not the one that looks like a tropical storm in the Caribbean.

HLBB

Dr BB Protests When NHC NAILS "MARCO"?

It does seem like a double standard to complain when the NHC nails a forecast, even if it is one YOU COMPLETELY BLEW. I know they were slow on "GUSTAV", which killed 800 plus Haitians, completely destroyed their food crops for this year, and made hundreds of villages completely cut-off, but man-0-man did they nail this one! Who could have possibly missed this enormous system on the very day it was deepening like a bomb????

HLG

FOUL FOUL FOUL!!!!

The following is from HLG - on the appearance of "Open Wave" Gustav on 27 August:

"Commentators recently describe "GUSTAV"'s appearance as an "Open Wave".

I think they have been high on VIPER, or something. This looks like a nice, compact little storm, with an improving CDO near the COC.

Has anyone noticed the models do not handle the small circulations as well as the larger ones? Is this a known bias?"



This petty little storm is called "Tropical Storm Marco." Why did the NHC jump all over this little storm cell, and hesitate so badly when Hurricane Gustav was raging off of Hispaniola? My sources tell me that the NHC was very upset with Dr. BB's forecast last night - and that they were going to "stick it to him." Clearly a sad situation... and one that merits a full investigation by the FWSAAB. This is clear intimidation to stop FWSAAB experts from providing daily hurricane forecasts. Because of a shower that is off the coast of the Louisiana coast, New Orleans officials are reviewing their evacuation plans just in case the NHC calls for a Tropical Storm tomorrow.....

GIVE ME A BREAK!!!

BB

Dr. BB's Forecast Goes Bust Bust!

The day isn't even over and that 24 hour forecast for the tropics went KAPUT!

"It is going to be a quiet tropical day tomorrow.That's according to the forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. BB, longtime Atlantic hurricane tracker based at Four Weather Studs And A Babe (FWSAAB). "My October 6th-only forecast calls for no named storms, no hurricanes and no major hurricanes," he writes on a document posted on the FWSAAB Web site. That's about zero overall activity as a normal 6 October day."

HLG :)

DR. BB's TROPICAL PREDICTIONS

It is going to be a quiet tropical day tomorrow.
That's according to the forecast issued Sunday by Dr. BB, longtime Atlantic hurricane tracker based at Four Weather Studs And A Babe (FWSAAB). "My October 6th-only forecast calls for no named storms, no hurricanes and no major hurricanes," he writes on a document posted on the FWSAAB Web site. That's about zero overall activity as a normal 6 October day.
Dr. BB noticed an unusual lull in storm formation for nearly three weeks due to the color patterns exhibited by Capt Nicole Mitchell. "But things are picking up with her red sweater, red / black plaid skirt, and black knee-high leather boots noticed by KlingFree on 1 October," said Dr. BB at his exclusive resort at Hooters. "I've also heard that Geekygirl is going to fashion more outfits on the website to drum up some business. But that remains to be seen..."

BB

Something cooking in NW Caribbean?

Looks like Dr. Gray is on to something! Appears a low is forming with an improving upper environment. Hmmm.

HLG

Three Hundred Missing in Texas from "IKE"

If you study the Great Galveston Storm you will see wildly varying numbers of dead. It goes from 7,000 or so, to as high as 9-10,000. They didn't have as good population stats then, and Galveston was a booming port of immigration. No surprise there are over 300 still missing on the Texas Coast. Tragic that so many stayed when the terrible surge was so obvious, and was even LESS than forecast! I doubt they will find the majority of the missing. -HLG

300 people still missing since Ike hit Texas



(CNN) -- Alligators loom over submerged cars. Mountains of debris are embedded in the ground. The bodies of cows, trucks and the remnants of homes lie in and out of the water. And unverified sightings of missing loved ones make the rounds.

Traci Turner says she hasn't heard from her sister Danielle Chapman or her two nephews since the storm.




More than 300 people are missing since Hurricane Ike hit the Texas coast last month, and the obstacles to finding them are frustrating family and friends who desperately want to know if their loved ones are dead or alive.
These family and friends want answers: Why are so many still missing? Why has the first organized search for bodies, to be held Thursday on the battered Bolivar Peninsula, taken so long?
Local and state authorities are conducting Thursday's search and have been working with the Laura Recovery Center, a missing persons organization. The center helped compile a list of missing people and police are using the information to go door-to-door looking for answers.
"We are hopeful most of these people will be found, that a lot of them were evacuated to shelters or don't even know they've been listed as missing," said Bob Walcutt, executive director of the Laura Recovery Center in Friendswood, Texas. iReport.com: Are you looking for loved ones?
"We are hoping to get more answers as people call in or as school starts, but another week with this number could be a different story," he said.
As of Thursday morning, the number of missing hovered at 300, including 24 children. Laura Recovery Center volunteers, working with the Galveston Police Department and Galveston Emergency Management, have been fielding calls from family and friends of people missing since Ike hit September 12.
A majority of the missing come from the hardest-hit Texas towns of Crystal Beach, Port Bolivar, Gilchrist and Galveston.
Traci Turner of San Diego, California, doesn't know where her sister Danielle Chapman is. The last time she spoke to her was right after Hurricane Gustav hit the Gulf Coast, about a week before Ike came ashore.
At that time, Chapman said she and her family, who were on the west end of Galveston Island, were all OK.
Chapman, 32, and her sons Joel, 15, and Addison, 12, lived in a home at the far west end of the island, past Jamaica Beach.
Turner said that despite arduous online searching, she has seen no news or photos about that area and has heard nothing from her sister and nephews since Hurricane Ike.
"My heart is hurting. This is my little sister, and I love her to death," Turner said.
"These are her kids. I love them to death, and they are gone. I don't want to say it -- maybe they have been washed out, maybe they haven't -- maybe they are in a shelter. Either way, they are still missing."
Adding confusion to her search,Turner said, the recovery center took her sister and nephews off the list because someone called to say he or she knew their whereabouts.
Turner hasn't been able to talk to the person who called in the tip. So without any proof that her family is still alive, she cannot rest easy.
"Not until I hear a voice or see pictures of them," she said.
Turner, like many others, wishes a streamlined procedure were in place to find residents in an evacuation zone.
Chapman and other evacuees may not have a phone number for their relatives, Turner said. There should be a main number everyone knew to call, she said, so families across the Gulf Coast wouldn't be left in the dark as to whether their loved ones are dead or just scattered across the state.
The frustration about the post-Ike recovery runs deep for Robin Huber, pastor of a church that was destroyed along with her home in Gilchrist. Huber estimates only seven homes are still standing in Gilchrist, which is surrounded by huge piles of debris. Watch Galveston residents return home »
Cars and dead animals float in the bay, she said.
The amount of debris is unfathomable, Huber said, and it was hurled with such force that residents can barely dig through it.
"Imagine that all of these homes were picked up and dropped from a high airplane," she said. "It looks like a bomb exploded here and the pieces are so stuck in the earth, it's impossible to pull out. Who knows what is in there."
Cars and trucks litter the road leading to the highway as if they were trying to escape at the last moment, Huber said.
When she was allowed back to Gilchrist after the storm, Huber swore she saw a body leaning out of a submerged car.
"Nobody could get to them, because they were still under water and because of all of the alligators in the area," she said.
Huber, like others, wants to know why officials haven't been searching for bodies.
"When there's a disaster, everyone focuses on it for a week, then everyone forgets," Huber said. "That's the problem right now. Why are there not more people out there looking for bodies?"
"I have people saying to me 'Do you know where my daddy is?' " she said. "All I can say is 'don't give up,' but now we are going on three weeks."
On Thursday, search teams will begin the first organized search in five "hot spots": debris piles across the Bolivar Peninsular, according to The Associated Press.
Chambers County Judge Jimmy Sylvia has been asking for help from the governor's office since the hurricane hit, according to CNN affiliate KTRK-TV.
"I don't have a clue why it is taking so long. You know, it really should be Galveston County pushing, because those are Galveston County folks that would be up here in my county," Sylvia told KTRK-TV.
State Rep. Craig Eiland told KTRK-TV that the delay will be investigated.
Now, two weeks after the storm hit, the phones at the call center are steadily ringing.
Walcutt said the center and the Red Cross are continuing to crosscheck their lists.
Between calls from the public and checking with shelters, Walcutt said, 317 people have been found and taken off the list, including 51 on Wednesday alone.
The Laura Recovery Center Web site lists the names of the missing along with their towns and photos. On the site, family and friends can create their own missing person fliers and upload those photos.
The center is working with local authorities, who are in some cases going to knock on the doors of the missing, Walcutt said.
For Huber, the struggle won't end until all the answers are in.
"They say Lord won't give you more than you can handle, but right now it's getting pretty close," she said.

Take the 'Klingfree" Challenge

It appears our friend KF is not a fan of Dr. Gray. So, let's all play the Klingfree Challenge. If Doctor Gray's work is not a forecast, as proposed, how hard can it be? So, how many hurricanes, do you think there will be, in the Atlantic Basin, in October, 2008? We will make this a little harder, because you must forecast tropical storm numbers, and hurricanes.

HLG Says:

3 TS & 1 Hurricane for October, 2008.

What do you say?

Dr Gray Calls for Very Busy October

Hurricane Experts Predict Three Big Storms for October

Wednesday, October 01, 2008



It's going to be a stormy month.
That's according to the forecast issued Wednesday by Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, longtime Atlantic hurricane trackers based at Colorado State University.
"Our October-only forecast calls for 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes [and] 1 major hurricane," they write on a document posted on the CSU Web site.
That's about twice as much overall activity as a normal October.
September was also very active, with hurricanes Gustav, Hanna and Ike blazing through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, though Klotzbach and Gray noticed an unusual lull in storm formation for nearly three weeks due to abnormally cold water in the eastern Atlantic.
The pair will issue a look back at the 2008 hurricane season on Nov. 24, followed by an early prediction of the 2009 season on Dec. 9.


Stay tuned! - HLG

Is There a Hurricane Making Landfall Today???

From watching the WX Channel this morning, you would think there is a Cat 5 bearing down on the continental U.S. The lovely and talented Capt. Nicole Mitchell was wearing a red sweater, red / black plaid skirt, and black knee-high leather boots. OMG!!!!!!!!

I watched the Tropical Update with earnest thinking that she was going to tell me a monster storm had sprung up in the Gulf overnight and was headed for New Orleans. I thought she only wore an outfit like that on D-Day.

KF