Global Fires from MODIS

I am getting to play with a lot of MODIS data at the new job here. LAC and GAC, oh my! What a blast from the past.

I just saw this MODIS image product which is produced every 10 days. It is map of the location of fires which meet the minimum mapping unit of MODIS, approx 250 square meters or so. Pretty interesting.

-HLG

Mt Redoubt about to Blow?

Only 100 miles from Anchorage, so if it blows "any hour" as forecast, the wind direction is very important to Anchorage, AK. Anchorage is less than 100 miles from this explosive volcano, so Sara Palin and Todd need to get ready! If the winds are from the west/sw, could be very bad for Anchorage.

Have a nice day!

-HLG

Big Nor'Easter by Mid Week?

One of the local weather-jocks in the DC market suggested the models are implying a strong Nor'Easter moving up the Mid-Atlantic states by mid-week, next week. What does the collective think?

-HLG

Horwood's Short Laws

I had never seen these, but they seem to relate directly to environmental modelling problems, such as climate, oceanography, met, etc. -HLG

1. Good data is the data you already have.

2. Bad data drives out good.

3. The data you have for the present crisis was collected to related to the prvious one.

4. The respectability of existing data grows with elapsed time and distance from the data source to the investigator.

5. Data can be moved from one office to another, but it cannot be created or destroyed!

6. If you have the right data you have the wrong problem to solve and vice versa.

7. The important thing is not what you do but how you measure it!

8. In complex systems there is no relationship between information gathered and the decision made.

9. Acquisition form knowledge is an exception.

10. Knowledge flows at half the rate at which academic courses proliferate!

Don't know who Horwood was exactly, but these are pretty cool laws to be remebered by!- HLG

Awful Forecast in Nothern KY

The power outages will get very seriuos, and then major cold air behind the snow! Some very strange wording in this NWS forecast as well... -HLG

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS
FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE...HEAVY AT TIMES...TONIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...AS WELL AS VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN FACT...POTENTIALLY
DESTRUCTIVE ICING MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT.TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA WILL CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TREE
DAMAGE. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE THE FREEZING
RAIN TO SNOW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA...2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH THIS SNOW...BEFORE IT
ENDS OR DIMINISHES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY

Cantore in Kentucky! Oh MY!

"Snap, Crackle, Pop, BOOM!"

quoted from Jim Cantore, live in Paducah, Kentucky, as a branch on an oak tree snappped, and fell LIVE. It was very dramtic television!

-HLG

"Warming" Clear in Antarctica?

There has been a flurry of reports of a "clear" warming trend in Antarctica. From what I have found the report refer to a recent article that was based on modeled temps for the past 50 years and a few variable quality recording stations. The grand result was a ~0.5 C "warming". I haven't seen anything in the popular press that included the + or - needed with this, especially since it is a modeled result. I assume with the error bars this "warming" could be zero, or even cooling!! The results for the South Pole itself, which still averages around -50 C annually show a cooling, but that story is buried, of course.

Enjoying the global warming event we are currently having in DC. It is about 1-3 inches and counting!

-HLG

Snow Pool Results

I know all of the dedicated readers (that's you Dr BB!) are tense with anticipation, but yes, the MDA Federal Internal Snow Pool has a winner. We officially recorded 1 inch of snow at Washington National Airport today, and the closest guess to that date/time is the CEO of the company! Not even one of our meteorologists! Could it be a fix???

-HLG

Navy "Pirates" Steal JTWC!!!

NOTICE TO OUR USERS
Under direction from the Chief of Naval Operations, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's (JTWC) web site is changing from its traditional appearance to a web "portal" which will combine all of the Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Community's (METOC) products and services.
In the near future, non-Department of Defense (DoD) users of JTWC's publicly-accessible products and services will be redirected to the new public portal on the US Naval Obervatory (USNO) website: http://www.usno.navy.mil. DoD customers will be directed to the NIPRNet Navy METOC portal site at https://nop.oceanography.navy.mil (CAC required).

For questions or issues, please contact the METOC Systems Knowledge Center (MSKC).

Chilean Volcano

Clear image of the volcano erupting in Chile.

-HLG

Dueling Cyclones Near Madagascar

I always find it interesting when two or more tropical cyclones are so close. Here you see "ERIC" and "FANELE" as bookends near Madagascar.

-HLG

TC Off Madagascar

Even while we freeze in much of the nation, the tropics are active, at least in the Indian Ocean.

-HLG

Coldest Weather in Nearly a Decade in Midwest!

Put that in your global-warming pipe and smoke it!

What in the name of Uncle Al is going on!!! Is this something the Russians are up to to drive up natural gas prices?? I will PAY ANYTHING!!!

Have a nice day, and hopefully you don't lose any extremeties in the Global Warming Catastrophe!!

-HLG

FWSAAB PROVIDES ANOTHER EXPERT PREDICTION

Weather Studs Inc. showed their incredible prowess and skill by providing accurate tropical cyclone predictions in 2008. In fact, their predictions were more accurate and timely than any of their competitors (Three Weather Weaklings and a Nun, Two Weather Wannabees and their Dog).

Please refer to May 14, 2008 - Where Weather Stud BB provided the following expert prediction for the North Atlantic:

a. Number of Hurricanes
b. Number of psuedo-hurricanes that NHC is afraid to call.
c. Number of Cat-5 storms.
d. Number of hurricane hits to Coastal US (does not include Puerto Rico).

My prediction

a. 10
b. 2
c. 1
d. 2

Then refer to Jeff Master's Wunderground Blog on 8 January which shows the actual 2008 Tropical Cyclone Activity and verify for yourself that BB's predictions were incredibly accurate - and precise.

We continue to urge all those interested in the weather and fearful of the 2009 Tropical Season to visit this site. Ladies, your Weather Studs are always available for one-on-one consultation.

BB

Global Warming Dumps Massive Snow on Euro-Weenies

Which coincidentally is when the Russians cut off gas supplies to the west. Someone please contact Uncle Al, unless he is off flying in his private jet! - HLG

Should we care about "space" weather?

You might want to double think that, if you sad no, or what is space weather? -HLG

Report: Powerful Solar Storm Could Shut Down U.S. for Months
Thursday, January 08, 2009

By Robert Roy Britt



Mystery Roar Detected From Faraway Space Cosmic Surprise: Black Holes Older Than Galaxies Five Ways the World Can End Solar-Flare Surprise: Pure Hydrogen Shot at Earth Magnetic Field Hole Could Cripple Communications When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states.

Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.

"Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.

Stormy past

Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:

— In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada.

— A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

"Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting."

Rush to prepare

The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012.

While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather — how severe, nobody knows — will ramp up a year or two before the peak.

Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.

"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."

The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week.

BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Excerpt from Steve Quinn's article

"Extreme cold slams Alaska"

By STEVE QUINN

(Published January 07, 2009 - Fort Mill Times)

National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Brown said a "ridge" of sorts has developed over much of central Alaska east toward Canada. That keeps other weather patterns from moving through. New conditions get pushed north or south while the affected area faces daily extremes.

"When it first started almost two weeks ago, it wasn't anything abnormal," Brown said. "About once or twice every year, we get a good cold snap.

"But, in this case, you can call this an extreme event. This is rare. It doesn't happen every year."

*************************************************************************************

Flash then to CIMSS Satellite Blog on 31 Dec - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/page/6

Which begs the question - "Any 2009 Hurricane Predictions Yet?" I have not seen Colorado State's January 2009 predictions yet...

BB

Big Snow in Syrian Desert

Don't see so much snow in the Syrian Desert (no their mountiain)very often.

Very pretty from space, at least.

-HLG

TC "Billy" Two Days Later!

Yowza!

TC "Billy" Revisited

I am completely fascinated by TC strengthening, as our regular readers know. These two images, just two days apart of TC "Billy" still gives me nightmares. This feature was a fairly disorganized wave on one day, and two days later is is a rapidly deepning, and very scarey storm. It just underscores to me how very little we know about the physics of tropical cycolgenesis and rapid strengthening, etc. The good news is it makes me happy that it is winter!

- HLG

Did Cometary Impacts Cause the Younger-Dryas

Which is also known as the "Little Ice Age" to you meteorologists. - HLG

Study: Diamonds link comet to mammal extinction during the "Younger-Dryas" period.



(CNN) -- Tiny diamonds found in the soil are "strong evidence" a comet exploded on or above North America nearly 13,000 years ago, leading to the extinction of dozens of mammal species, according to a study.


Diamonds found in North American soil suggest a comet led to the extinction of dozens of mammal species.

The scientific report also suggests the cataclysm also reduced the population of the earliest people to inhabit the region and triggered a 1,300-year-long cold spell that stretched around the world.

The heat generated by the extraterrestrial impact likely melted much of a glacier that once covered the Great Lakes region, sending a massive flood down the Mississippi River, the study said.

According to the report, the cold waves of glacial runoff into the Gulf of Mexico shifted Atlantic Ocean currents, changing climate patterns throughout the world in a cooling period known as the Younger Dryas.

"A rare swarm" of comets rained over North America about 12,900 years ago, sparking fires that produced choking, leading "to the extinction of a large range of animals, including mammoths, across North America," the report said.

The study was conducted by a group of eight archaeologists and geologists from the universities of Oregon and California, Northern Arizona University, Oklahoma University and DePaul University. Their findings were published Friday in the journal Nature.

The prehistoric humans known to have inhabited the continent at the time of the event -- hunters and gatherers dubbed the Clovis culture -- suffered a major decline in population in the aftermath, the scientists said.

The scientists, studying layers of sediment dated to 12,900 years ago at six North American locations, including one directly on top of a Clovis site in Murray Springs, Arizona. Each layer was rich in nanodiamonds, which are produced under high-temperature, high-pressure conditions created by cosmic impacts, the report said.

"The nanodiamonds that we found at all six locations exist only in sediments associated with the Younger Dryas Boundary layers, not above it or below it," said University of Oregon archaeologist Douglas Kennett. "These discoveries provide strong evidence for a cosmic impact event at approximately 12,900 years ago that would have had enormous environmental consequences for plants, animals and humans across North America."

The other sites studied were in Bull Creek, Oklahoma; Gainey, Michigan and Topper, South Carolina, as well as Lake Hind, Manitoba; and Chobot, in the Canadian province of Alberta.