Sunday, May 30, 2010

TD "Agatha" to Reform in Caribbean?

The visible imagery this afternoon shows a distinct circulation from the remnants of Agatha, which crossed Guatemala over the weekend, in the NW Carib. Stay tuned! - HLG

Friday, May 28, 2010

Joe Bastardi Calling for "Possible Record" ATL Hurricane Season 2010

How Does Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Forecast Compare to NOAA?
By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

May 28, 2010; 10:37 AM ETShare
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued their annual hurricane forecast, which is very similar to the forecast already released by AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi in February and again earlier this month.

NOAA forecasts an "active to extremely active" year, while Bastardi said 2010 could be a "top 10 year" in terms of storm frequency and strength, adding that the Atlantic basin looks "textbook" for a major season.

"2010 will be above average," Bastardi said, "and worst-case scenario, it may be in the top 5 to 10 percent as far as impact to land areas in the western hemisphere."

NOAA predicts a 70 percent chance of 14-23 named storms. Bastardi narrows this range by projecting a total of 16-18 named storms, with 15 reaching the western Atlantic and at least six storms impacting the United States coastline, with a worst-case scenario of up to 10.

Bastardi thinks the total number of storms is a "red herring," explaining that it is diverting attention from a bigger concern--the fact that more storms will threaten land areas of North America and adjacent islands.

NOAA predicts there will between 8-12 storms that reach hurricane status, while Bastardi sees 10-11 storms becoming hurricanes this season.

As for major hurricanes, or hurricanes Category 3 and higher, NOAA forecasts between 3 and 7, with Bastardi expecting 5.



The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean will be of special concern this hurricane season, as both the Gulf oil spill area and Haiti will be vulnerable to storm impact.

He adds that in the heart of the season, there will be a "congregation of tracks," or a concentrated area where many of the storm tracks will pass through. This area is centered near Puerto Rico to near the Southeast U.S. coastline.

"Haiti will be impacted by tropical activity, an idea I alluded to in February," Bastardi said, "At least one and at most several storms could impact the area affected by the spreading oil slick. A strong tropical cyclone will act as a giant blender and dilute much of the oil."

NOAA states that the probability on the season reaching the higher end of the range will depend on whether or not a La Nina, or a cooling of the waters of the Tropical Pacific, develops this summer.

Bastardi said there are bigger things at play than the La Nina, which he said is going to develop this season.

"If La Nina is so important, how is it that there wasn't a La Nina in 2005, the most active hurricane season?" Bastardi said. "Just blaming La Nina is a gross oversimplification of the forecast."

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Hurricane Tracks 2000-08 With Current Oil Spill Footprint


Stay tuned. Will storm-surge forecasts include how many millions of barrels of oil will wash ashore? - HLG

Thursday, May 27, 2010

NOAA Forecasts Very Active ATL Hurricane Season

NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
May 27, 2010

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

•14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
•8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
•3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

•Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
•Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
•High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

Hurricane Noel, 2007.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."

The president recently designated May 23-29, 2010, as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

CALIPSO Shows Mesaurements of Ash over Norwegian Sea


Amazing profile of the ash-cloud, at altitude, from CALIPSO, along the path mapped in the visible image shown here. - HLG

Monday, May 24, 2010

Very Unusual Radar out of Memphis


The large cluster of storms has been virtualyl stationary over the Memphis are all afternoon, and the flash-flood watches, and severe warning have made a circular pattern all afternoon. - HLG

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Accuweather Forecasting Early "Hybird" System to hit SE Coast of US


Hard to argue with the analysis. There is a clear disturbance/virtual-depression NE of the Bahamas, which has to move NW. Cancel that trip to the Outer Banks for Memorial Day, unless you ant to stay in the cabin with the kids all day! - HLG

Thursday, May 20, 2010

DISH NETWORK DOESN'T LIKE "WAKE UP WITH AL" EITHER

DISH DROPS WX

Reasons:

1.  Nicole Mitchell on late at night.
2.  Al Roker in the morning.
3.  Flick and a Forecast.
4.  Al Roker in the morning.
5.  Green is Universal.
6.  Al Roker in the morning.
7.  The departure of Steve Lyons.
8.  Al Roker in the morning.
9.  Business news from MSNBC.
10.  Al Roker in the morning.


Bring back Heather and Nicole in the morning - I might watch the Wx Channel again.

BB

THE REASONS THERE ARE NO ADVANCED CIVILIZATIONS....

Synthetic and/or artificial life - the end of the world...


The beginning of the end for human life... too bad we advance to a certain stage that cannot handle new technology.

BB

Unusual TC in Gulf of Aden


Weak, but very rare location. - HLG

TC "LAILA" Not Terribly Windy, but Certainly Wet

Weak Surface Circ Just East of Yucatan Coast?


First one I have noticed this season. Will it wander in the Gulf? Will it develop over the Ice Age cooled waters of the Gulf? What will the oil spill do? Stay tuned, should be an interesting Hurricane Season 2010! - HLG

LSU SST Anomaly Map for WATL


Look how cool the Gulf has been, relatively speaking. Better than that tiny stuff DRBB showed us last week! - HLG

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Animated GIF didn't animate

So, go to this link if you want to see it.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/best_of_esl/images/g13.2010.0423.0514.3daycomp.gif

LSU Earth Scan Lab Animated GIF of Loop Current


This animation shows the Gulf Loop Current from the beginning of the oil spill, until very recently in mid-May. You can clearly see the small Loop Eddy to the north of the current, which has been entraining oil, and pulling it towards the main Loop Current. -HLG

TC Leila with a Small Eye, and Big Dust over Cape Verdes



Narly cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. Amazingly thick dust cloud over Cape Verdes.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Etnafletnayokullflokull Ash Plume Heights from MISR


Very interesting image of that volcano in Iceland, of the plume heights as measured by the MISR instrument. The blues-greens are 1-3 km, and the oranges to reds are 4-6 km in elevation.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

I Am El Niño?


Higher anomalies off of Africa - Gulf of Mexico is nice and cooler than usual... Could be an interesting tropical season for the U.S.

BB

Thursday, May 13, 2010

FROM CIMSS


The gravity waves out ahead of the Oklahoma storms (10 May 2010) are amazing.  As to are the storms themselves. 

BB

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

"Tornada on the ground!"

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Friday, May 7, 2010

Hide the Decline! - Too Funny



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc

First Image from GOES 15 (IR)

Iceland Ash-Plume Starting to Look like April's


And it is heading for EU airspace. Watch those flights closely, and if you are trying to get back to US from EU, do it NOW!!! - HLG

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Dust in the Palouse Hills


More dust, as the ice-age descends. - HLG

Etnjouklflokul (you know, the one in Iceland) is blowing up again.


The last time this volcano went through and eruption series, it lasted over a year, so stay tuned trans-Atlantic voyagers. This new eruption has already closed Irish and Scottish air-space. Can Londong be far behind? - HLG

Storm Spotters Send Reports Via Twitter (officially!)

Everyone talks about the weather. Now's your chance to "tweet" it and be heard. Through an experimental program, the National Weather Service will be searching for tweets that contain significant weather information.

Why Twitter?

An advantage of searching Twitter for weather reports is the capability to utilize recently added "geotagging" -- geographical information that is associated with something, in this case individual Tweets. This allows the NWS to correlate each Tweet to its location when it was sent. This capability will help to enhance and increase timely and accurate online weather reporting and communication between the public and their local weather forecast offices. The reports will be carefully evaluated during the experiment to ensure quality and timeliness.

Who Can Participate?

Anyone with a Twitter account can participate. Note: Trained storm spotters should use pre-established communication methods (toll-free line, eSpotter, etc.), when possible, to send severe weather reports to the NWS.

Here's What You Need to Do:

If Geotagging is available on your 3rd party Twitter application:

1.Make sure geotagging is turned on for your 3rd party Twitter app.
2.Make sure geotagging is turned on for your Twitter account page.
◦Through the web page: http://twitter.com/account/settings
◦From your mobile device: http://twitter.com/account/settings/geo
3.Submit your Tweet report via your 3rd party app in the following format:
#wxreport your significant weather report

Some examples of weather report tweets with geotagging:

Ex. 1: #wxreport 6.0" of new snow as of 1 pm
Ex. 2: #wxreport Hail 3/4 inch in diameter at 4:25 pm


If Geotagging is NOT available on your 3rd party Twitter application (or you want to use the web-based Twitter.com):

1.Log into your Twitter account via the web or mobile device.
2.Submit your tweet report in the following format:
#wxreport WW your location WW your significant weather report
3.Your location can be just about anything, but the more specific the better. Here are some examples listed from most accurate to least accurate location identification:

◦Most accurate--A latitude and longitude:
WW 44.231, -88.485 WW◦An address:
WW 2485 S Point Rd, Green Bay, WI 54313 WW◦A street intersection:
WW intersection of Holly St and N 4th St, Perry, OK WW◦A city name:
WW Ft Lauderdale, FL WW◦Least accurate--A zip code:
WW 53221 WW

Some examples of weather report tweets without geotagging:

Ex. 1: #wxreport WW 1289 W Oakridge Circle, St Louis, MO WW 6.0" new snow as of 1 pm
Ex. 2: #wxreport WW 44.115, -88.595 WW Hail 3/4 inch in diameter at 4:25 pm


What You Can Report

You can tweet any weather event that occurs in your local area, but we are most interested in significant events: snowfall, severe weather, flooding, etc. In particular:

•Damage from winds--briefly describe what was damaged and time it occurred.
•Hail--include size of hail and time it fell.
•Tornadoes or funnel clouds.
•Flooding--briefly describe what is occurring.
•Snowfall during an event and storm total. When reporting snowfall, include the time period when it fell.
•Freezing rain or freezing drizzle producing a 'glaze' on objects or roads.
•Dense fog restricting visibility to less than a half mile.

Additional Guidance

•Frequently Asked Questions
•The purpose of this project is to allow people to submit reports. Please be responsible and respectful of the purpose.
•Be as specific as possible when describing the weather report.
•A valid Twitter user account is required to submit reports. As such, use of this service constitutes an agreement to the terms of service of the provider. Go to: http://twitter.com/tos for more information
•Interested in displaying tweets from the project on your own web page? The files you need are contained here (zip). See the "readme.txt" file included for more information.

Monitoring Your Reports


The following external (non-NWS) links will monitor #wxreport tweets (click the links below):

•Twitter search
•nearbytweets.com
•www.geochirp.com
•Twitterfall
•wx411.com/codenoobs
Note: Some #wxreport monitoring websites that plot the weather report on a map may not properly plot tweets that use the "WW" location tag.


If you have any questions or suggestions for the program, please contact Corey Pieper -- corey.pieper@noaa.gov

Deadly Tornado in China? The end is surely near!

25 dead after tornado, storm in southwestern China, more than 150 injured

Associated Press


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BEIJING (AP) — A tornado and strong winds in southwestern China killed 25 people and injured more than 150 early Thursday, state media reported.

Several homes collapsed in the city of Chongqing, but the number was still being tallied, said the disaster relief director at the Chongqing civil affairs bureau.

The director, who gave only his surname Ma, disputed a China News online report that 1,000 homes had collapsed. "It's definitely not that many," he said.

China Central Television said in its noon broadcast that the death toll had risen to 25. The official Xinhua News Agency said more than 150 were injured.

Telephones at the press office for the Chongqing government rang unanswered at midday, when many government officials are usually away for lunch.

Xinhua said the tornado struck the area around 2 a.m. and killed people in the counties of Dianjiang and Liangping.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

TRMM Measurements of Ohio Valley Record Rainfall


Large islands of 200 plus millimeters of rainfall (which is three fee in English!) - HLG

Awesome Dust Storm at White Sands, USA!


The gypsum is everywhere! - HLG

Latest Navy MCSST Clearly Shows Oil Spill Cooling Entire Northern Gulf of Mexico Littoral Zone


Thus will surpress hurricane activity throughout the season.... - HLG

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Psychedelic Rainfall Totals in Nashville


Yep, the whites are larges areas over 15 inches from Doplar. Lots of reports of 18 inches in the region from guages, and some rivers shot up from pool levels of 3 feet, to over 40 feet within a couple of hours yesterday. Yowza! - HLG

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Bad News for Gulf Islands National Seashore


The area of the oil has tripled in size the past three days with the strong south winds, and it looks gloomy for the beautiful islands of the northern Gulf. ;( - HLG