Sunday, October 31, 2010

Another "Sunny" Day in the People's Workers Paradise


I wonder what Europe looked like during the industrial revolution, but unfortunately there were no satellites (that we know of!). Regardless, the shear area, millions of square kilometers, that are perpetually covered in smoke in China is simply amazing. - HLG

TOMAS Forecast Map Looks like a Voodoo Curse


The storm passes through a weak shear environment, then clears that an strengthens to the sixth major hurricane in November history, and just after that makes a 90 degree right-hand turn directly to earthquake ravaged Haiti. Where's the justice in the world?? -HLG

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Disastrous Hurricane TOMAS


TOMAS will be heading over water that is in the mid 80s, and hasn't really been tapped all season by a significant storm. More bad news as the eye-wall continues to close and intensify at ths writing. Footnote: There has NEVER been a Cat 5 storm in the Atlantic recorded in November. It would be worth a small bet in Vegas that this may be the one. - HLG

TOMAS Disaster Scenarios Continue to Deepen

Now that "TOMAS" is nearly Cat2, and is just clearin the Leeward Islands, will it strengthen more than forecast? There have only been 5 Cat 4 storms in November, in all of Atlantic recorded history. This one could easily make that, and then possibly come to a near stall between Jamaica and Haiti. This is looking more like a historical disaster in the making. - HLG

Very Ominous Storm for Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and Eastern Cuba

Well "TOMAS", which was a red-circle from the NHC at this time yesterday, and forecast to be a hurricane in 24-36 hours by THIS website is officially a nightmare scenario for the Greater Antilles. The storm has a monstrous eye as of this writing, and appears to be entering a very rapid intensification phase. Even if the weak shear at 48 hour appear, it may be a major hurricane by that point, and the forecast is for that shear, if it appears, to weaken through 120 hours, which would slow the monster down, somewhere south of Haiti, which has been undergoing a water-born cholera epidemic, even before the storm. The millions of people in the tent-cities from the December earthquake are in great peril. Jamaica had devasting tropical floods just last month, and frankly who cares what happens to Cuba, hopefully it washes into the ocean with commie bastard overlords drowning everywhere, and the people finally get freed! - HLG

Friday, October 29, 2010

Shocker from NHC

"TOMAS" which wasn't even a depression four hours ago, is suddenly stronger now that a plane has reached it!

000
WTNT61 KNHC 292343
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
745 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS STRONGER...SPECIAL
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SOON...
RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 8 PM AST AND WILL SUPERSEDE THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

Very Rare November Major Hurriance Forecast


Appears the NHC held off on TOMAS because the forecast is very bad for the Caribbean. Major hurricane by mid-week, which appears will threaten poor, quake-ravaged Haiti. - HLG

NHC Reaching A New "Low"


I am frankly stunned that no call has been made on this system, other than a "red-circle-of-concern". This is CLEARLY a TD, at least, and probably has strong TS gusts in it already, if not sustained winds. The organization is very impressive to say the least! - HLG

Freak Storm?


Does anyone remember such a large, well-formed tropical low like this in the deep-tropical WATL so late in the season? I am trying, but can't remember one. This will be "TOMAS", and has trouble written all over it. Where will "VIRGINIE" (Stupid name) form next? - HLG

Forget "Shary", but stay tuned for "Tomas"


The unusual storm forming just NE of South America looks to be a real problem brewing for the Islands. Where will it then go?

Watch out for "Tomas", and only two names left til we have to go to the greek names! - HLG

Clearly the NHC is Overworked and Getting Depressed

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED
FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Thursday, October 28, 2010

More Tsunami Tragedy in Indonesia

MENTAWAI ISLANDS, Indonesia -- The death toll from a tsunami and a volcano rose to more than 340 Thursday as more victims of Indonesia's double disasters were found and an official said a warning system installed after a deadly ocean wave in 2004 had broken from a lack of maintenance. AP

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

"We are IN THE TORNADO!"

Global Storming Wreaking Havoc in Midwest

Trees, wires down in Jefferson County after storm; gusts reported at 75 mph
The Courier-Journal • October 26, 2010


In the wake of a storm that swept through Jefferson County on Tuesday, emergency officials said there were dozens of reports of downed trees and electrical wires throughout the county, but no major damage, according to MetroSafe Communications officials.


LG&E’s outages website showed less than 4,000 customers reporting they’d lost electricity throughout Jefferson County.
Dispatchers reported an overturned vehicle at Newburg Road and Broadmore Boulevard.
As the worst of the storm blew through, the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Jefferson and the surrounding counties.
One report of a brief funnel cloud touching down along the Ohio River in Louisville was made to the weather service, but it had not been confirmed.
A weather service official said it appeared that a McAlpine Locks and Dam worker reported the funnel cloud near the river.
A funnel cloud also was reported near Dixie Highway just south of the Watterson Expressway, but there was no confirmed touchdown, said Mike Crow, a weather service meteorologist.
He said gusts were reported by one storm spotter as high as 75 mph in the Gene Snyder Freeway and Old Henry Road area, but most of the gusts topped out at 40 to 50 mph in the region.Crow said the heaviest of the rainfall and wind gusts have passed the Louisville area, leaving mostly light rain to fall into the evening. A half-inch to an inch fell in the region during the brunt of the storm, Crow said, which wasn’t a “drought buster,” but it was still a good amount

Monday, October 25, 2010

FWSAAB FOCUSES ON GULF OF ALASKA



As a rival to the Red Spot on Jupiter - a large low pressure system will form over the Gulf of Alaska and start to devour everything around it. Expect wind speeds of 1000 mph to develop along the west coast.

FWSAAB will be relocating to the Southern Hemisphere over the next few days.

BB

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Belize Met Service has Radar?


Who knew?

The storm was getting better organized even as it made landfall. Nice image from the 50km swath of the Belize City radar for Hurricane Richard. - HLG

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Anyone seen our tropical storm?

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231157
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT RICHARD HAS REFORMED TO THE EAST...SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Friday, October 22, 2010

TC "Giri" Hits Burma



Very nasty Bay of Bengal storm. Luckily it is not hitting the heavily populated, very low areas of the south, like Nargis did a few years ago. Should be massive rainfalls in the mountains though. - HLG

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Will this be "Richard"? Will it make hurricane?


At least it is acknowledged as an official TD now. - HLG

Typhoon "Megi" Still Strong in South China Sea & Invest 99?



Typhoon "Megi" still looks big and bad as it now heads for somewhere east of Hong Kong. Meanwhile several models show "Invest 99", or TS Richard if you don't like the red-circle the NHC has, becoming a Cat 4 storm??? - HLG

Red Circle or TS Richard?


Can we get a plane down here please???

Monday, October 18, 2010

Super-Typhoon MEGI At Landfal lin Luzon PI



Nast storm which is forecast to re-strengthen after Luzon, and head to China, somewhere west of Hong Kong. - HLG

Will Invest 90 become TS "Richard"?



Looking better on the satellite loops. The models hint at another Caribbean-to-Fish storm. - HLG

HOMEMADE SPACECRAFT

One for the FWSAAB Archives - excellent science project for the kids!

BB

Homemade Spacecraft from Luke Geissbuhler on Vimeo.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Super Typhoon "Megi" Threatens Luzon


With 155 KT winds, "Megi" one of the worst of the season, and aiming squarely for Luzon, Phillipines. - HLG

Thursday, October 14, 2010

"Best" Forecast Ever?!


The graphic shows the current model runs for forecast track, and intensity of TS "Paula". I think this is my favorite ever, and can be summed up as "I dunno". - HLG

Poor Guillermo, Cigar Afficianado


I sympathize with Guillermo and his concernes for the Cuban crop this year. They were just recovering from two years ago when 4 hurricanes hit the Island Worker's Paradiso.

I look at the current forecast map from the NHC and have to wonder. Does anyone buy the "post-trop" forecast as the storm curves to the SE, back OVER the Caribbean? - HLG

WHAT HATH CUBA DONE....

... to deserve this.  There go Cuban Cigar prices for another year.  Que lastima!

Guillermo

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

La Bajada Cuba Radar of "PAULA"


I am always amazed to get radar images from Cuba. Nice one of Hurricane "Paula" approaching the island from the west. -HLG

Cancun Radario


Paula on the Mexican Radariooooooo. (sing to tune of Mexican Radio)

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Hurricane "Paula" from MODIS


Amazingly compact little hurricane, with a Cat 2 punch. Looks like the intensification models have proved their worth yet again. Cancel that trip to the Keys this weekend. - HLG

NHC had "Paula" as an Orange Circle this time Yesterday

HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS...
...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...

Monday, October 11, 2010

TS "Paula" DUH!


Of course your "humble" FWSAAB Tropical Geographer called this one on Saturday, while the NHC and Accuweather were apprently on vacation!

This will be major trouble for recently flooded areas. After is sits a week in the NW Carib, any ideas where it will go??? - HLG

Saturday, October 9, 2010

TS "Paula" ?


NHC says it is an Orange Circle of Probability. I say it is TS "Paula". - HLG

Friday, October 8, 2010

Hurricane "OTTO" and Chinese Global Warming Poster Child



Last hurricane of the ATL season?

Just another day in the world's dirtiest air over Communist China.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Amazing Radar from Flagstaff, AZ


Freaky tornadoes in Flagstaff this morning. Not sure I have every looked at Flagstaff radar for anything other than snow! - HLG

Friday, October 1, 2010

Two Largest Formation Circles Ever?


The NHC has apparently decided to draw the two largest possible TC formation circls ever seen in the ATL.

Meanwhile we officially recorded Two Hundred Inches of rain here in DC from Non-Tropical Storm "NICOLE".

hlg