TS in the Gulf

Wake up Doctor BB, there is tropical activity!

Asteroid 2011 MD

Asteroid to Pass Extremely Close By Earth On Monday
by Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist
Date: 24 June 2011 Time: 05:35 PM ET


UPDATE for 5:35 p.m. ET: NASA has recalculated the time of closest approach for this event to be about 3 1/2 hours later than initially reported. The change is reflected below.

Here's something to dwell on as you head to work next week: A small asteroid the size of a tour bus will make an extremely close pass by the Earth on Monday, but it poses no threat to the planet

The asteroid will make its closest approach at 1:14 p.m. EDT (1714 GMT) on June 27 and will pass just over 7,500 miles (12,000 kilometers) above the Earth's surface, NASA officials say. At that particular moment, the asteroid — which scientists have named 2011 MD — will be sailing high off the coast of Antarctica, almost 2,000 miles (3,218 km) south-southwest of South Africa.

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Asteroid 2011 MD was discovered Wednesday (June 22) by LINEAR, a pair of robotic telescopes in New Mexico that scan the skies for near-Earth asteroids. The best estimates suggest that this asteroid is between 29 to 98 feet (9 to 30 meters) wide.

According to NASA's Near-Earth Object Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif., an object of this size can be expected to come this close to Earth about every 6 years or so, on average. [Photo of asteroid 2011MD trajectory]

"There is no chance that 2011 MD will hit Earth but scientists will use the close pass as opportunity to study it w/ radar observations," astronomers with NASA's Asteroid Watch program at JPL wrote in a Twitter post Thursday (June 23).

Even if the asteroid were to enter Earth's atmosphere, it likely wouldn't reach the surface, they added.

"Asteroid 2011 MD measures about 10 meters. Stony asteroids less than 25 m would break up in Earth's atmosphere & not cause ground damage," Asteroid Watch scientists said.

The asteroid's upcoming Earth flyby will be a close shave, but not a record for nearby passing asteroids. The record is currently held by the asteroid 2011 CQ1, which came within 3,400 miles (5,471 kilometers) of Earth on Feb. 4 of this yea

Great Red Spot is really a Warm Cored Eddy

Most oceanographers are very familiar with the phenomenon, as sometimes the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico sheds large ones, and the most heavily studied ones form north of the Gulf Stream, and the Kuroshio. Amazing images from Earth-based telescopes in Chile and Hawai'i are showing Jupiter in a "new light". This image is thermal infra-red light, and clearly shows the GRS as a a large warm-cored eddy, which could be in the Atlantic Ocean, except it is much larger than the entire Earth. - HLG

Tropical Storm "Maeri" on Radar

Don't want to be accused of being an @#$^&^##, but here is a radar composite showing the center of TS Maeri, just off the SW Korean coast on Sunday morning, June 26th. - HLG

Tropics are Quiet?

As usual Dr BB has had a few too many beers, and forgot to look at the Western Pacific, but who thinks of that area for tropical formation this time of year? The view from Korea is quite different than from the Gulf of Mexico. A week typhoon is heading for the peninsula as I type this, but the primary threat is heavy rain, since it isn't expected to be a typhoon for long. - HLG

QUIET IN THE TROPICS

FWSAAB Press Release - 18 June 2011


As predicted by FWSAAB scientists, musicians and poets alike - the tropics were quiet this week.  The large high pressure system in the Atlantic, extending into the Gulf, is working with strong wind shearing to keep most of the Gulf Coast "high and dry."

There was some excitement in the Bay of Bengal where a system did form and moved into India.

FWSAAB scientists will be keeping an eye on the tropics for you, but not for another week until something develops.  Now it is time to have a beer and take a nap.

FWSAAB - not just an unpronounceable acronym - but a way of life.

BB

Volcano Sunsets in Chile, and Around the Southern Hemisphere

You gotta love volcanoes, if for nothing else but the sunsets! - HLG

Chile's Puyehue Volcano Plume in Technicolor

This volcano is producing a large, long-lasting ash plume, which has circumnavigated the Southern Hemisphere, and forced re-routing of airlines in all those strange countries down there. This image is a pseudo-color rendering from NASA - HLG

Chilean Volcano Ash Over South Africa

The southern hemisphere polar jet has transported a steady stream of ash from the new volcano in Chile, all the way over South Africa, as seen in this image. - HLG

Fire or Ice?

Hedge those bets on Global Warming, with at least two dollars on "Little Ice Age". - HLG


Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict

Victoria Jaggard
National Geographic News
Published June 14, 2011

Enjoy our stormy sun while it lasts. When our star drops out of its latest sunspot activity cycle, the sun is most likely going into hibernation, scientists announced today.

Three independent studies of the sun's insides, surface, and upper atmosphere all predict that the next solar cycle will be significantly delayed—if it happens at all. Normally, the next cycle would be expected to start roughly around 2020.

The combined data indicate that we may soon be headed into what's known as a grand minimum, a period of unusually low solar activity.

The predicted solar "sleep" is being compared to the last grand minimum on record, which occurred between 1645 and 1715.

Known as the Maunder Minimum, the roughly 70-year period coincided with the coldest spell of the Little Ice Age, when European canals regularly froze solid and Alpine glaciers encroached on mountain villages.

AND THE WICHITA HEATBURST IS STILL ON THE LINE.....

I remember going through a heat burst in Oklahoma around 11pm at night.  The storm that produced the heat burst was actually 50 miles away, but the heat burst occurred over my town.  I was outside when it started and remembered being worried because I had no idea what produced the event - in Oklahoma it was explained by the Methodist Church as the end of the world via Sodom and Gomorrah.

BB

Age of Aquarius off to a Good Start!

NASA's 'Age of Aquarius' Dawns With California Launch
06.10.11


PASADENA, Calif. – NASA's 'Age of Aquarius' dawned Friday with the launch of an international satellite carrying the agency-built Aquarius instrument that will measure the saltiness of Earth's oceans to advance our understanding of the global water cycle and improve climate forecasts.

The Aquarius/SAC-D observatory rocketed into space from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California atop a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket at 7:20:13 a.m. PDT (10:20:13 a.m. EDT). Less than 57 minutes later, the observatory separated from the rocket's second stage and began activation procedures, establishing communications with ground controllers and unfurling its solar arrays.

Initial telemetry reports show the observatory is in excellent health. The SAC-D (Satélite de Aplicaciones Científicas) observatory is a collaboration between NASA and Argentina's space agency, Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE).

"Aquarius is a critical component of our Earth sciences work, and part of the next generation of space-based instruments that will take our knowledge of our home planet to new heights," said NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver. "The innovative scientists and engineers who contributed to this mission are part of the talented team that will help America win the future and make a positive impact across the globe."

Aquarius will make NASA's first space observations of the salinity, or concentration of salt, at the ocean surface, a key missing variable in satellite studies of Earth. Variations in salinity influence deep ocean circulation, trace the path of freshwater around our planet and help drive Earth's climate.

OH MY GOD!!!!

Auntie Em! Auntie Em!!!! Run for the hills (or actually - bury yourself underground) It is a coronal mass ejection (very different from Congressman Weiner's mass erection).

BB

More Dirty Pictures

Not that kind you pervs! Go to RepWeiner@twitter.com if you want those kinds.

These pictures of dirty skies are from the massive fires in Arizona, which reportedly caused the mountains to be invisible from downtown Denver!

The other picture shows the amazing volcanic plume in Chile and Argentina. The plume heads to the NE, then makes a 90 degree turn to the SE, presumably in the Jet. - HLG

Smoke from Arizona Fires

Last visible image from GOES-E on June 6. Smoke reaches well into Iowa at high levrels. - HLG

Chile Volcano

University of Wisconsin-Madison's CIMSS blog shows the explosive eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile which occurred on 04 June 2011. GOES-12 0.65 µm visible channel images. Great image and a great blog.

BB

GULF OR ATLANTIC - PICK 'EM!

Model spread couldn't be larger. GFDL picks the Gulf. HWRF picks the Atlantic. Which model will win?

BB

Joplin Tornado Trace

The path of the EF5 tornado which ripped across the center of Joplin, Missouri is clearly seen in this satellite image, tracing from the lower-left side of the image towards the upper right. - HLG

Fly-away Bouncey Houses

In the effort to bring you the latest developments in atmospheric phenomena, FWSAAB brings you a whole new exciting category. The third bounce-house to be recorded this year, flying away in the wind. - HLG

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFJ79fLTo7o

FIRST 2011 TROPICAL?

The GFDL continues to be "bullish" on placing a tropical system in the Gulf later this week. However almost all the other models (including the wacky Canadian model) shows the systems headed out to the Atlantic.

If only there were a 24x7 weather channel available to help us understand these situations.....

BB

DR BB'S 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE PREDICTION

After months of research, running dozens of models, analyzing the stars and asking my dog - I've compiled all the information and am ready to make a bold, startling prediction about this year's hurricane season.

My prediction is that it will be an average year - 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 storms of Cat 3 or higher. All my data and evaluation can be found at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml.

Like others, I will be reevaluating my prediction throughout the year, and changing the numbers if it looks like this prediction is out to lunch.

Media outlets - please refer to my publicist for interviews regarding my prediction.

Happy Hurricane Season.

Dr. BB

First Space-Based Ocean Salinity Mission to Launch

Less than a week until the Age of Aquarius! - HLG

New NASA Salt Mapper to Spice Up Climate Forecasts
06.03.11

Global differences, on average, between evaporation and precipitation, the main elements of the global water cycle. Eighty-six percent of global evaporation is from the ocean surface, and 78 percent of global precipitation falls back over the ocean. Changes in these patterns affect the salinity of the ocean surface. Scientists plan to use Aquarius salinity data to incorporate these processes into computer models used to improve predictions of future climate.
A comparison of the level of detail available from averaged historical in-water ocean surface salinity data (top) with the detail that will be available from Aquarius ocean surface salinity measurements (bottom). This new information will be used to improve the accuracy of oceanic computer model simulations that contribute to future climate projections.

Salt is essential to human life. Most people don't know, however, that salt -- in a form nearly the same as the simple table variety -- is just as essential to Earth's ocean, serving as a critical driver of key ocean processes. While ancient Greek soothsayers believed they could foretell the future by reading the patterns in sprinkled salt, today's scientists have learned that they can indeed harness this invaluable mineral to foresee the future -- of Earth's climate.

The oracles of modern climate science are the computer models used to forecast climate change. These models, which rely on a myriad of data from many sources, are effective in predicting many climate variables, such as global temperatures. Yet data for some pieces of the climate puzzle have been scarce, including the concentration of dissolved sea salt at the surface of the world's ocean, commonly called ocean surface salinity, subjecting the models to varying margins of error. This salinity is a key indicator of how Earth's freshwater moves between the ocean, land and atmosphere.

Enter Aquarius, a new NASA salinity-measurement instrument slated for launch in June 2011 aboard the Satélite de Aplicaciones Científicas (SAC)-D spacecraft built by Argentina's Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE). Aquarius' high-tech, salt-seeking sensors will make comprehensive measurements of ocean surface salinity with the precision needed to help researchers better determine how Earth's ocean interacts with the atmosphere to influence climate. It's a mission that promises to be, to quote the old saying, "worth its salt."

Improving Climate Forecasts

"We ultimately want to predict climate change and have greater confidence in our predictions. Climate models are the only effective means we have to do so," said Aquarius Principal Investigator Gary Lagerloef, a scientist at the Seattle-based independent laboratory Earth & Space Research. "But, a climate model's forecast skill is only as good as its ability to accurately represent modern-day observations."

Density-driven ocean circulation, according to Lagerloef, is controlled as much by salinity as by ocean temperature. Sea salt makes up only 3.5 percent of the world's ocean, but its relatively small presence reaps huge consequences.

Salinity influences the very motion of the ocean and the temperature of seawater, because the concentration of sea salt in the ocean's surface mixed layer -- the portion of the ocean that is actively exchanging water and heat with Earth's atmosphere -- is a critical driver of these ocean processes. It's the missing variable in understanding the link between the water cycle and ocean circulation. Specifically, it's an essential metric to modeling precipitation and evaporation.

Accurate ocean surface salinity data are a necessary component to understanding what will happen in the future, but can also open a window to Earth's climate past. When researchers want to create a climate record that spans previous decades -- which helps them identify trends -- it's necessary to collect and integrate data from the last two to three decades to develop a consistent analysis.

"Aquarius, and successor missions based on it, will give us, over time, critical data that will be used by models that study how Earth's ocean and atmosphere interact, to see trends in climate," said Lagerloef. "The advances this mission will enable make this an exciting time in climate research."

Taking Past Measurements with a Grain of Salt

Anyone who's splashed at the beach knows that ocean water is salty. Yet measuring this simple compound in seawater has been a scientific challenge for well over a century.

Until now, researchers had taken ocean salinity measurements from aboard ships, buoys and aircraft – but they'd done so using a wide range of methods across assorted sampling areas and over inconsistent times from one season to another. Because of the sparse and intermittent nature of these salinity observations, researchers have not been able to fine-tune models to obtain a true global picture of how ocean surface salinity is influencing the ocean. Aquarius promises to resolve these deficiencies, seeing changes in ocean surface salinity consistently across space and time and mapping the entire ice-free ocean every seven days for at least three years.

The Age of Aquarius

Research modelers like William Large, an oceanographer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., will use Aquarius' ocean surface salinity data, along with precipitation and temperature observations, to round out the data needed to refine the numerical climate models he and his colleagues have developed.

"This mission is sure to mark a new era for end users like us," explained Large. "Aquarius puts us on the road to implementing a long-term, three-step plan that could improve our climate models. The first step will be to use Aquarius data to identify if there is a problem with our models -- what deficiencies exist, for example, in parts of the world where observations are sparse.

"Second, the data will help us determine the source of these problems," Large added. "Salinity helps us understand density -- and density, after all, makes ocean waters sink and float, and circulate around Earth.

"Third, Aquarius will help us solve the puzzle of what's going on in the ocean itself -- the ocean processes," he added. "We'll pair an ocean observation experiment with the satellite mission to explore the mixing and convection -- how things like salinity are stirred in the ocean -- to better determine what processes might be actually changing climate. Measuring salinity at the ocean surface will deliver a pioneering baseline of observations for changes seen by the next generation of missions in the coming decades."

"We've done all of the advance work leading up to the launch of Aquarius, so the proof will be in the actual data," said Lagerloef. "Our intent is to put the data out immediately as soon as the satellite begins transmitting. Before the end of the first year, we'll be interpreting exactly what the data are telling us and how they will benefit climate modeling."

For more information on Aquarius, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/aquarius .

Large Tornado (Ef2?) Hits Sprngfield, Mass

Just estimating from the damage photos, but it looks like a real-deal, maybe EF2 type tornado. Once again going straight through a heavily populated area, which seems to be the theme of this sad tornado season. - HLG

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/tornado-in-springfield-massachusetts

Super Typhoon Songda

Apparently weakening, but my make a direct hit on Okinawa later this week. - HLG

TD 1 and/or 2?

Looking at the radar the low passing over Florida sure looks like a TD, so, with the latest vis image it is time to play "Guess that Tropical Thinggy" again. I believe the low over Florida is a TD, and with a long run over the northern Gulf, hopefully bringing rain to SE Texas, the NHC will have to number it. The low in the NW Carib is to be watched as well, and certainly could get a name in the near future.

Get the batteries, candles, ice, water, gas, alcohol, and extra prophylactics (why do they always forget those?, no reason not to plan some fun) now! It is Hurricane Season 2011 OFFICIALLY!! - HLG

Happy 1st Day of Hurricane Season 2011

And we even have a little low, with an official "30 percent chance of developing" heading towards northern Florida, and then the Gulf. Texas is pulling for this one to be a good rain-maker, to help break the drought in SE Texas. - HLG