Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Monday, December 26, 2011
TC "Washi" Death Toll Continues to Rise in Phillipines
Nearly 1,500 Deaths From Floods In Philippines
The Office of Civil Defense's latest tally Tuesday listed 891 dead in Cagayan de Oro and an additional 451 in nearby Iligan city. The rest came from several other provinces. Most of the dead are unidentified.
Civil Defense head Benito Ramos says decomposing remains were retrieved floating in the sea as far as 60 miles from the two cities where a Dec. 16 tropical storm unleashed more than a month's worth of rainfall in 12 hours, sending walls of water gushing into homes.
Ramos says the search will continue as long as bodies are being recovered.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Global Warming Snows Piling up in Central Asia
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Typhoon "Washi" Causes State of Calamity in PI
UPDATE 4-Typhoon kills more than 436 in southern Philippines
* Local governments declare state of calamity
* Dozens of bodies washed ashore in nearby towns
* Houses swept into the sea while people slept (Adds fresh details)
CAGAYAN DE ORO, Philippines, Dec 17 (Reuters) - More than 400 people were killed and an unknown number were missing after a typhoon struck the southern Philippines, causing flash floods and landslides and driving tens of thousands from their homes.
In a text message to Reuters, Gwendolyn Pang, secretary-general of the Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC), said the death toll of 436 was expected to rise.
"Our death toll was based on the actual number of bodies that were brought to funeral homes in the two cities that were the hardest hit by the typhoon," Pang said, adding it was difficult to estimate how many were still unaccounted for.
Typhoon Washi, with winds gusting up to 90 kmh (56 mph), barrelled into the resource-rich island of Mindanao late on Friday, bringing heavy rain that also grounded some domestic flights and left wide areas without power.
Emergency workers, soldiers and police were recovering more bodies - most covered in mud - washed ashore in nearby towns.
Pang said nearly 360 bodies had been found in the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan and about 50 in four other southern provinces. The government's official death toll stood only at 131 people and nearly 270 missing.
Another 21 people drowned on the central island of Negros, the PNRC said.
Hundreds were also unaccounted for, most of them from a coastal village in Iligan. Houses were swept into the sea by floodwaters while people were sleeping inside late on Friday.
The Philippines social welfare department said about 100,000 people were displaced and brought to nearly three dozen shelters in Iligan and Cagayan de Oro.
"WE RAN FOR OUR LIVES"
Army spokesman Colonel Leopoldo Galon said search and rescue operations would continue along the shorelines in Misamis Oriental and Lanao del Norte provinces.
"I can't explain how these things happened, entire villages were swept to the sea by flash floods," Galon said.
"I have not seen anything like this before. This could be worse than Ondoy," he said, referring to a 2009 storm that inundated the capital, Manila, killing hundreds of people.
Television pictures showed bodies encased in mud, cars piled on top of each other and wrecked homes. Helicopters and boats searched the sea for survivors and victims.
"We ran for our lives when we heard a loud whistle blow and was followed by a big bang," Michael Mabaylan, 38, a carpenter, told Reuters. He said his wife and five children were all safe.
Aid worker Crislyn Felisilda cited concern about children who had became separated from their families or lost their parents. "Many children are looking for their loved ones... (and children were) crying and staring into space."
Rosal Agacac, a 40-year-old mother, was begging authorities to help find her two children after their shanty was swept to the sea. "Please President Noynoy, help me," she cried, holding a candle at a spot where their house stood before the floods, referring to President Benigno Aquino.
Aquino met with cabinet members and disaster officials to assess conditions on the main southern island and ordered a review of disaster plans to avoid a repeat of the tragedy. He is due to inspect typhoon-hit areas after Christmas.
Rescue boats pulled at least 15 people from the sea, said another army spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Randolph Cabangbang.
Iligan City Mayor Lawrence Cruz said many people were caught by surprise when water rose one metre (three feet) high in less than an hour, forcing people onto roofs. "Most of them were already sleeping when floodwaters entered their homes. This is the worst flooding our city has experienced in years."
The national disaster agency said it could not estimate crop and property damage because emergency workers, including soldiers and police officers, were evacuating families and recovering casualties.
Six domestic flights run by Cebu Pacific were cancelled due to the rain and near-zero visibility in the southern and central Philippines. Ferry services were also halted, stranding hundreds of people.
An average of 20 typhoons hit the Philippines every year.
Friday, December 16, 2011
No More December Tropical Forecasts from CSU?
For Hurricane Forecasters, the Outlook Is Stormy
By Jeremy A. Kaplan
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AP/NOAA
Here's a forecast you might not expect. Two Colorado State University climatologists, who have independently been tracking and predicting the severity of hurricanes for nearly 30 years, are abandoning their long-range forecasting efforts. Simply put, the advance predictions just weren't accurate. "We have suspended issuing quantitative forecasts at this extended-range lead time, since they have not proved skillful over the last 20 years," Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray wrote in their annual December report intended to predict the severity of the upcoming year's Atlantic hurricane season. Klotzbach and Gray will continue forecasting -- just not in December, months in advance of the hurricane season. "From a computation perspective, there's enough chaos in weather that I don't know if you'll ever be able to predict it months in advance," Klotzbach told FoxNews.com. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State and others traditionally issue hurricane predictions in late May just prior to the start of the season, and update them in early August, just prior to the historic peak. Twenty years ago, Klotzbach decided to push the envelope, to see how early he could predict the season. The results weren't good. In December 2010, the duo predicted 180 total days of tropical cyclone activity; the season actually saw 137. The numbers for 2009 were off as well: 136 days of cyclone activity were predicted, but only 66 cropped up. "Beyond five days or so, that's where the crystal ball gets a little fuzzy," Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for NOAA, told FoxNews.com. "You can predict seasonal trends fairly well months in advance. But the devil's in the details. Which ones will stay over open water and which will hit land?" And that type of more immediate forecasting has actually improved dramatically, Vaccaro and Klotzbach both said. "Hurricane forecasting has come a long way," Vaccaro said. "Once a storm does form, our forecast skills are quite high in being able to predict where that storm will hit. The challenge lies in understanding the forces at work, he said. The long-term seasonal outlooks are based on large-scale, slow-moving climate factors -- things like ocean temperatures, the presence of a La Nina or El Nino force, weather patterns, and so on. But the birth and eventual path of an individual storm is dependent on short-term weather patterns -- the position of the jet stream or the presence of a cold front. "Those day-to-day weather patterns are very fluid and have a tremendous impact on the strength and track of a specific storm," Vaccaro told FoxNews.com. Colorado State's hurricane experts tell a similar story. Despite advances in supercomputers, hurricane-hunter aircraft, satellites, weather buoys and more, long-term prediction simply isn't feasible today. But short-term forecasts get better every year.
"Our April forecasts have shown reasonably good skills and are getting better over the years," Klotzbach said. "When you're forecasting the weather a week from now versus tomorrow, you're going to put a lot more faith in tomorrow's forecast." "Our knowledge of how storms work still isn't perfect," Klotzbach admitted.
By Jeremy A. Kaplan
Share
AP/NOAA
Here's a forecast you might not expect. Two Colorado State University climatologists, who have independently been tracking and predicting the severity of hurricanes for nearly 30 years, are abandoning their long-range forecasting efforts. Simply put, the advance predictions just weren't accurate. "We have suspended issuing quantitative forecasts at this extended-range lead time, since they have not proved skillful over the last 20 years," Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray wrote in their annual December report intended to predict the severity of the upcoming year's Atlantic hurricane season. Klotzbach and Gray will continue forecasting -- just not in December, months in advance of the hurricane season. "From a computation perspective, there's enough chaos in weather that I don't know if you'll ever be able to predict it months in advance," Klotzbach told FoxNews.com. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State and others traditionally issue hurricane predictions in late May just prior to the start of the season, and update them in early August, just prior to the historic peak. Twenty years ago, Klotzbach decided to push the envelope, to see how early he could predict the season. The results weren't good. In December 2010, the duo predicted 180 total days of tropical cyclone activity; the season actually saw 137. The numbers for 2009 were off as well: 136 days of cyclone activity were predicted, but only 66 cropped up. "Beyond five days or so, that's where the crystal ball gets a little fuzzy," Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for NOAA, told FoxNews.com. "You can predict seasonal trends fairly well months in advance. But the devil's in the details. Which ones will stay over open water and which will hit land?" And that type of more immediate forecasting has actually improved dramatically, Vaccaro and Klotzbach both said. "Hurricane forecasting has come a long way," Vaccaro said. "Once a storm does form, our forecast skills are quite high in being able to predict where that storm will hit. The challenge lies in understanding the forces at work, he said. The long-term seasonal outlooks are based on large-scale, slow-moving climate factors -- things like ocean temperatures, the presence of a La Nina or El Nino force, weather patterns, and so on. But the birth and eventual path of an individual storm is dependent on short-term weather patterns -- the position of the jet stream or the presence of a cold front. "Those day-to-day weather patterns are very fluid and have a tremendous impact on the strength and track of a specific storm," Vaccaro told FoxNews.com. Colorado State's hurricane experts tell a similar story. Despite advances in supercomputers, hurricane-hunter aircraft, satellites, weather buoys and more, long-term prediction simply isn't feasible today. But short-term forecasts get better every year.
"Our April forecasts have shown reasonably good skills and are getting better over the years," Klotzbach said. "When you're forecasting the weather a week from now versus tomorrow, you're going to put a lot more faith in tomorrow's forecast." "Our knowledge of how storms work still isn't perfect," Klotzbach admitted.
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