GUSTAV STORM SURGE

Storm surge is starting to look a little ominous - fortunately Gustav is moving smartly to the northwest, so the water shouldn't build up too fast - but the wave heights are high off shore, and the fetch is long enough. So we shall see. Low tide in the Mississippi Sound is around 6:30 am - which is the time Gustav might come ashore. So that should reduce the amount of surge in the area. It won't be pretty though.

Oil rigs still reporting wind obs. Ram-Powell - Viosca Knoll 936 at 29.06N and 88.09W (very close to buoy 42040) is reporting 50 kts sustained. The Oil and Chemical industry will certainly take a hit with the storm.

Winds here are up to 10 kts or so. Starting to feel the main feeder bands and have been placed under a tornado watch - the main thing I'm worried about right now. Should be an interesting evening. Stay safe!

BB

Gustav Arrives Pass Christian/Delisle, MS

31 August - 1800 local (CST) - First squall associated with Gustav has arrived in Pass Christian/Delisle MS. First gust measured with Kestrel 3000 at 15.9 kts before having to retreat inside from the heavy rain. Hail shaft evident to Southeast. Getting dark now so no more pictures till daybreak which is when we expect the heavier bands to begin coming in. gg

Storm Surge Probabilities

Current probability of at least 5 foot storm surge. They don't post the single-track runs from SLOSH yet, but this is the best available. Interesting at least.

HLG

Quotes from CNN International

"Gustav could strike the southern coast of Louisiana" (vs. the northern coast?)

"Biggest risk from this storm is storm surge AND flooding" (I thought storm surge had something to do with flooding?)

"Areas in New Orleans below 10 feet above sea level could be at risk" (what can you say since that is the entire city)

God Bless, stay high and dry!

HLG

Hanna models are all over the place

God Bless the modelers!

BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS...

Observations from 42003 - very close to the eye of Gustav, on the northeast side.

I have to admit, I didn't expect 30 ft wave heights from this storm. Definitely will have a role with the storm surge along the coast. Models are tracking a bit further to the west... but I'm really surprised by the wave heights - some of the highest we've seen from buoys in the Gulf.

BB

Motion to the right of forecast track continues!

Night-time visible images are showing the storm feasting on the Loop with plenty of time for that convection to completely wrap around the storm and probably become a Cat 5 today. The repeated motion of the eye to the right of track continues. The forecast of this west-ward jog is starting to look optimistic. The forward motion continues at a brisk pace. Hunker down Greater NOLA!

Also, very nice radar pass catching both Gustav and Hanna yesterday. The wind-field to the NE of Hannah is very impressive, and this could be in the Gulf late next week. OWW!

HLG