FWSAAB NAILS THE FORECAST - AGAIN

FWSAAB Tropical Analyst - Dr. BB - made this forecast on 9 March 2009 - and did not modify the forecast the entire season:

"DR BB'S 2009 ATLANTIC HURRICANE FORECAST

After months of research, running dozens of models, analyzing the stars and asking my dog - I've compiled all the information and am ready to make a bold, startling prediction about this year's hurricane season.

My prediction is that it will be an average year - 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 storms of Cat 3 or higher. All my data and evaluation can be found at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml.

Like others, I will be reevaluating my prediction throughout the year, and changing the numbers if it looks like this prediction is out to lunch.

Media outlets - please refer to my publicist for interviews regarding my prediction.

Happy Hurricane Season.

BB"

The official result of 2009 - 9 Named Storms, 3 Hurricanes and 2 storms of Cat 3 or higher - with the fewest named storms since 1997.

Folks - stay with FWSAAB! An acronym you can trust!

BB

Global Warming Causes Weakest Hurricane Season since 1990s!

Hurricane seasons ends, one of calmest since 1990s
By RUSS BYNUM (AP) – 47 minutes ago

SAVANNAH, Ga. — The hurricane season is ending with barely a whimper.

The 2009 Atlantic season officially ends Tuesday. This year produced just nine named storms, including three hurricanes. Only two tropical storms — Claudette in August and Ida in November — made landfall in the U.S. Those tropical storms brought heavy rain and some flooding but caused little destruction.

This was the quietest hurricane season since 2006, when none of the nine storms hit the U.S. coast. The calmest season before that was in 1997, which had just seven storms.

James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center says El Nino (NEEN-yo) conditions in the Pacific Ocean helped produce strong winds that disrupted storms in the Atlantic before they could strengthen into hurricanes.

Formerly "Super" Typhoon Nida

Fading away in the WestPac. - HLG

More "Global Warming" Shannanigans

Climate Change Scientists Admit Dumping Data
Monday, November 30, 2009



Scientists have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which predictions of global warming were based
Scientists at the University of East Anglia have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years.

The UEA’s Climatic Research Unit CRU was forced to reveal the loss following requests for the data under Freedom of Information legislation.

The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals — stored on paper and magnetic tape — were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.

The admission follows the leaking of a thousand private emails sent and received by Professor Phil Jones, the CRU’s director. In them he discusses thwarting climate sceptics seeking access to such data.

In a statement on its website, the CRU said: "We do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (quality controlled and homogenized) data."

The CRU is the world’s leading center for reconstructing past climate and temperatures. Climate change sceptics have long been keen to examine exactly how its data were compiled. That is now impossible.

Big Eastern Snow-Storm Next Week?

I keep hearing rumors a major early-season snow storm for somewhere in the Eastern US next week. What do the Studly Geeks, and Geeky Babes say? - HLG

Dr BB Was Right (as usual!)

Doesn't sound good for Quikscat, and no new mission on the horizon, since we are giving up on space exploration. Maybe the Chinese can fly one, and we will buy the data? - HLG

QuikScat satellite suffers a malfunction
Published: Nov. 24, 2009 at 3:39 PM


Aging U.S. weather satellite faltering
PASADENA, Calif., Nov. 24 (UPI) -- NASA says its QuikScat satellite has suffered a malfunction and now scientists are assessing options for future operations of the 10-year-old mission.

The space agency said a mechanism that spins the scatterometer antenna has been failing during recent months. That spinning antenna had been providing near-real-time ocean wind speed and direction data over 90 percent of the global ocean every day.

The degradation of QuikScat's rotating antenna was expected, NASA said, since the spin mechanism was designed to last about 5 years. The antenna finally stopped spinning early Monday.

NASA officials said managers will review contingency plans … for restarting the antenna and also assess options for using the mission in its present degraded state to advance Earth system science in the event the antenna cannot be restarted.

The 10-year-old QuikScat satellite, designed for a two-year mission, has achieved and far surpassed its science objectives, NASA said. QuikScat has been used by the world's meteorological agencies to improve weather forecasts and identify the location, size and strength of hurricanes and other storms.

More information on QuikScat is available at http://winds.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/quikscat/index.cfm.

Super-Typhon "NIDA"

Missed Guam, and looks like a fish-storm, but a very nice looking one. -HLG

QuikSCAT Dead???

“Several hours ago, shortly past 7:00Z today, telemetry received from QuikSCAT indicates that the antenna rotation rate has dropped to zero and remains at zero. The motor remains powered. The system can be operated safely in this state for an indefinite period. The QuikSCAT operations team will be meeting later this morning, but in all likelihood this is probably the end of the nominal mission.”

TIME TO WATCH THE BUOYS

NOAA/NCEP Wavewatch is forecasting large waves to impact the UK this weekend. Keep an eye on the Brittany Buoy (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62163) and the K2 Buoy (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62081) as the wave heights build.

BB

I tried to take this story seriously.

And the devastation was real enough. However, once I read the the town of Cockermouth was worst hit, and the Suck River overflowed, well I just couldn't take it any longer, and burst out laughing. HLG

Devastating Floods Swamp U.K. Lake District, Ireland
Friday, November 20, 2009



COCKERMOUTH, England — Military helicopters winched dozens of people to safety and emergency workers in inflatable boats rescued scores more as floods on Friday swamped northern England's picturesque Lake District. One police officer died after a bridge was swept away by the surging waters.

British soldiers conducted house-to-house searches for those trapped by floods as deep as 8 feet. Troops also dropped down on lines from air force helicopters, breaking through rooftops to pluck people to safety.

Emergency services said more than 200 people were rescued in the hardest-hit town, Cockermouth. At least 960 homes were flooded after a day of unprecedented rain, police in the northern region of Cumbria said.

Heavy rain and gales also brought widespread flooding to Ireland, as more than 3 feet (1 meter) of water shut down the center of the country's second-largest city, Cork, and more than a dozen towns and villages.

Cockermouth, a market town 330 miles (530 kilometers) northwest of London, lies at the junction of the Cocker and Derwent rivers and is known for being the birthplace of poet William Wordsworth.

"It has devastated the town," said Michael Dunn, manager of the Bitter End pub in Cockermouth. "There is a lot of properties in Main Street, private shops, that have had their windows smashed in by the force of the water and by debris in the water.

"There were cars floating down the street. It will be a long time before Cockermouth recovers from this."

The rain stopped and floodwaters began to ease Friday, giving rescuers a chance to reach trapped people by boat. Debris swirled around the boats as they pulled people to safety.

Tony Walker of Cockermouth told BBC radio he was on the top floor of his house and the water on the ground floor was chest-high.

"I've had better mornings," Walker said. "I've been here all night and I've run out of water now, so I'm thinking of making a break for it, really. The water is still pretty deep, it's going down, but at this rate it's going to be hours before it's clear."

Forecasters said the rainfall was unprecedented. The Environment Agency recorded 12.3 inches (314.4 millimeter) of rain in 24 hours in one spot — one of the wettest days ever recorded in England.

"It looks like a very historical event," said Julian Mayes, a forecaster with MeteoGroup UK.

Environment Secretary Hilary Benn told the BBC that flood defenses were meant to withstand a one-in-100-years flood — but could not cope with the volume of water.

"What we dealt with last night was probably more like one-in-a-1,000, so even the very best defenses, if you have such quantities of rain in such a short space of time, can be over-topped," Benn said.

Police urged people not to travel, as many roads were impassible. Two bridges collapsed in the town of Workington, including a main one over the River Derwent. Cumbria Police said Constable Bill Barker, 45, died after he was knocked into the water when the structure gave way.

"This is a stone bridge — to wash away a bridge of that size and dimension is incredible," said lawmaker Tony Cunningham.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown that he had spoken to Cumbria Chief Constable Craig Mackey to offer help.

"Our thoughts are with all those who have been impacted by these floods," Brown said.

The Irish army deployed more than 100 soldiers, two dozen trucks and several flat-bottomed boats to evacuate people trapped by waist-deep floodwaters in cars and homes. A helicopter also winched to safety a County Galway family of five, including the 87-year-old grandmother.

The floods caused transport chaos along Ireland's western coast, with many major roads blocked and train services canceled.

The water caused extensive damage to the Lake Hotel on the shores of the fabled Killarney Lakes in County Kerry. About 170 guests at the Victorian period building had to be evacuated by tractor as dozens of staff carried period furniture upstairs.

The hotel's 12th-century castle, normally a floodlit tourist's highlight on the lake vista, was almost completely under water Friday.

"You can just see the top of the castle and everything else is covered," said the hotel's general manager, Niall Huggard.

The River Suck burst its banks in County Leitrim near the Northern Ireland border, flooding the town of Ballinasloe and cutting off major roads to Ireland's northwest. About 40 families had to be evacuated by boat.

The Irish weather forecasting service, Met Eireann, said parts of southern and western Ireland suffered their most intense and sustained rainfall in 30 years.

Friday was mostly sunny but more rain and gales were forecast for the weekend.

Martian Dust-Devil Trails

The HiRISE camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows twisting dark trails criss-crossing light-colored terrain on the Martian surface. Newly formed trails like these had presented researchers with a tantalizing mystery but are now known to be the work of miniature wind vortices known to occur on the red planet — in other words, Martian dust devils. - NASA via HLG

Thank Goodness it Wasn't BLUE!

Huge Chunk of Ice Crashes Through Roof of Colorado Home
Wednesday, November 18, 2009


BRUSH, Colo. — A basketball-sized chunk of ice crashed through the roof of a family's Colorado home after apparently falling from an airplane passing overhead.

Danelle Hagan and her 9-year-old daughter were at home in Brush on Saturday when they heard the kitchen ceiling come crashing down. They were not injured.

"I hear a huge, what sounded like an explosion. And I look over and my kitchen is basically in shambles," Hagan told KMGH-TV in Denver. "It was very terrifying."

The Federal Aviation Administration was sending investigators to the home to investigate whether the ice came from an airplane. The Hagans put some of the ice in their freezer.

FAA spokesman Mike Fergus said Wednesday the ice chunk appears to be "Rime ice," which can build up on the outside of a plane's fuselage when it flies through cold and wet air.

Fergus says that it doesn't appear the ice was "blue ice," which comes from an airplane's toilet.

After investigators determine whether the ice came from a plane, Fergus said they'll look at which planes are in the area at the time to see if it's possible to tell which craft dropped the ice.

Fergus said that in cases of falling blue ice, FAA investigators would inspect any plane that was in the area to make sure it doesn't have a dangerous pressure leak. He said that ice falls from airplanes are alarming, but extremely rare.

He said the chances of getting hit by ice from a plane is "on the magnitude of a lightning strike."

Hagan's family is staying out of the house until it's repaired because the crash loosened some asbestos. She says people were in the kitchen just before the ice fell, so they're just glad to be OK.

"If we had been in that kitchen, it would have been devastating," Hagan said

Major Global Warming Event in Colorado

,but I guess Al Gore was busy flying around the world in his private jet, spending the 100 plus million he has made on "Global Warming" to notice. - HLG

Where did the Moon's Water Originate?

Where Is Water on Moon From--Volcanoes, Sun ... Earth?
for National Geographic News

November 17, 2009
For many, 2009 will be remembered as the year water on the moon was confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt.

"You're seeing the culmination of a whole bunch of missions that were instrumented specifically to address this question," said Paul Spudis of the NASA-funded Lunar and Planetary Institute (LPI) in Houston, Texas.


Earlier this year, NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and India's Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft detected possible chemical traces of lunar water. And just last week NASA announced that their LCROSS moon crashes had kicked up "significant" amounts of water from a crater.

But where did the moon's water come from?

"Was it deposited in a single big event that was recent? Or is this stuff that has been around for billions of years?" said Peter Schultz, an LCROSS scientist at Brown University in Rhode Island. "We don't know."

Right now there are three major scientific theories of how the moon got its water—and a "wildly speculative" fourth idea that can't be ruled out just yet.

THEORY ONE
Ancient Volcanoes Pushed Moon's Water to Surface

The moon's water was there from the start, one theory goes—water was an ingredient in the moon's creation, as it was for Earth's.

According to this idea, the water is concentrated in the moon's interior. In the distant past, when the now "dead" moon had a hot core, volcanic eruptions or gaseous "belches" slowly pushed water to the surface, where it's been frozen ever since, said LPI's Spudis, explaining the theory.




THEORY TWO
Water is "Home Brewed" on the Surface

Lunar water could be home-brewed, with some help from the sun, some scientists speculate.

The sun constantly emits a stream of particles called solar wind. Positively charged hydrogen ions, or protons, in the solar wind may strike the moon and interact with oxygen-rich minerals in lunar soil to form H2O, aka water, according to this theory.

(Find out how charged particles from Jupiter could be feeding enough oxygen into the "ocean moon" Europa to support fish-size life.)

Forming water via solar wind would be a slow process, Brown University's Schultz said. But "even if you're only accumulating a molecule [of water] a day this way, over billions of years you can do a lot of things."

THEORY THREE
Comets and Asteroids Delivered Water to the Moon

Some say the moon's water may be a gift from water-bearing comets and wet asteroids that struck the moon in the distant past. (Related: "Comet Swarm Delivered Earth's Oceans?")

Most of the water from such an impact would have been ejected into space, but some sluggish molecules could have been captured by the moon's gravity.

"The idea is that comets or water-bearing asteroids hit the moon and create a cloud of water vapor that hangs around the vicinity of the moon's surface," LPI's Spudis said.

"Some of the water eventually migrates to the polar areas, where it might find its way into a cold trap"—a permanently frigid area, such as a polar crater where sunlight never reaches.

A cold trap is too chilly to allow ice to sublimate—turn directly into gas—and the airless moon is inhospitable to liquid water. As a result, the water would theoretically remain frozen for eons.

THEORY FOUR
The Moon's Water Came From Earth

There are two ways Earth water could have ended up on the moon, and both would have been possible only when Earth and the moon were much closer, billions of years ago, Brown's Schultz said.

For starters, during prehistoric periods when Earth's magnetic field was absent or weak, solar wind could have stripped water vapor from our planet's atmosphere and deposited it on the moon.

Or perhaps catastrophic asteroid or comet impacts on Earth ejected seawater into space, and the orbiting moon passed through the vapor cloud, emerging somewhat soggier.

Both of these two scenarios are theoretically possible, though Schultz admits, "we're in speculation land." But then, that's exactly where lunar water lived until a few short days ago

China Up to their Wing-Wangs in Global Warming

That's past knee-deep to you non-Mandarin speakers! - HLG

TC "ANJA" in Southern Indian Ocean

If a TC forms in an ocean where no humans live, does it make a sound? - HLG

Deep Snow Covering Much of China

Uncle Al, the Chinese are up to their wing-wangs in global warming! - HLG

Worth much more than it's weight in gold (Maybe 10-100 times)

Yes, that's water, or "life & rocket fuel" to all us space-geeks out there. Proof secured of this treasure on the moon.

Water Found on Moon, Scientists Say



Published: November 13, 2009
There is water on the Moon, scientists stated unequivocally on Friday, and considerable amounts of it.


Get Science News From The New York Times »
“Indeed yes, we found water,” Anthony Colaprete, the principal investigator for NASA’s Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite, said in a news conference.

The confirmation of scientists’ suspicions is welcome news both to future explorers who might set up home on the lunar surface and to scientists who hope that the water, in the form of ice accumulated over billions of years, could hold a record of the solar system’s history.

The satellite, known as Lcross (pronounced L-cross), slammed into a crater near the Moon’s south pole a month ago. The impact carved out a hole 60- to 100-feet wide and kicked up at least 24 gallons of water.

“We got more than just whiff,” said Peter H. Schultz, a professor of geological sciences at Brown University and a co-investigator of the mission. “We practically tasted it with the impact.”

For more than a decade, planetary scientists have seen tantalizing hints of water ice at the bottom of these cold craters where the sun never shines. The Lcross mission consisted of two pieces — an empty rocket stage to carve into the lunar surface and a small spacecraft to measure what was kicked up, but it too slammed into the surface.

For space enthusiasts who stayed up, or woke up early, to watch the impact on Oct. 9, the event was anticlimactic, even disappointing, as they failed to see the anticipated debris plume. But NASA later said that a plume was indeed photographed; the live video stream was not properly attuned to pick out the details.

The water findings come from analysis of the slight shifts in color after the impact, showing telltale signs of water

Target "Soot" before CO2?

Soot almost as bad as CO2 for global warming
Smoke gets in eyes of climate boffins

By Richard Thurston



US scientists have said switching anti-global warming efforts to tackling the production of soot would offer a quicker return than cutting CO2 emissions.

According to US scientists, enormous damage is being done by soot, which is being created by the combustion of fossil fuels and as an indirect result of deforestation, among other factors.

They claim that soot - or black carbon to give it the scientific name - is the second biggest cause of global warming behind CO2, causing 60 percent of the warming effect of CO2.

Professor Greg Carmichael, of the University of Iowa and Professor V Ramanathan, of Scripps Institution of Oceanography, argue that tackling the emissions of soot offers a far quicker chance to address global warming than trying to reduce CO2 emissions. They said this is because soot has a much shorter lifetime than CO2, which can hang about for around 100 years.

The scientists, who published their research in the Nature Geoscience journal on Sunday, estimate that soot will have a surface warming effect on the Earth of "about 0.5 to 1 deg C". They say its energy effect is around 0.9 watts per square metre, substantially more than the 0.2 - 0.4 watts per square metre estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Most of the world's soot was created by Europe and North America until the 1950s, but since then the two regions have been overtaken in their contribution by nations in the tropics and the Far East.

In less developed countries, soot is created by cooking with biofuels such as wood, dung and crop residue. It's also produced by so-called open biomass burning, which is associated with deforestation and burning crops.

Beautiful Sediment Dynamics on LA/TEX Shelf

"IDA" from TRMM & Quikscat

These two images show rainfall from TRMMs "space-radar", with the red areas showing 40-50 mm/hr of precip. The other image is the Quickscat with wind-flags, and raster wind-field speeds. - HLG

Rain Totals from Richmond, VA

Incredible ammounts of rain in SE Virginia from the Remnants of TS "IDA". The heavy stuff will be over the Capital tonight. -HLG

I liked it better when we never knew ...

About all of the asteroids whizzing by overhead. Now I look up at the ceiling just before falling asleep and think of the asteroid heading straight at us! - HLG

Earth Narrowly Misses Asteroid Strike
Wednesday, November 11, 2009


On November 6, 2009, The Catalina Sky Survey noticed something in the sky — an asteroid, seemingly on a collision course with Earth. The object would miss our planet by a mere 8,700 miles.

Terrifying? Hardly. Although the asteriod, identified as 2009 VA, would be the third-closest known (non-impacting) asteroid ever, it was also just 23 feet across. Similar sized objects pass this close to Earth about twice a year and impact the planet about once every five years.

The Nasa NEO programme aims to detect and track at least 90 per cent of the 1,000 asteroids and comets that approach Earth and are larger than 0.6miles in diameter, by 2020.

They monitored a 100ft asteroid that whizzed 45,000 miles above the Earth's surface on March 2 this year. A similar sized object slammed into Tunguska, Siberia in 1908. The impact created a blast so powerful it levelled 1,200 square miles of forest.

Global Warming or Global Cooling?

Good thing is you can use this story for either one! Iceberg seen off of Australia. Unusually far "north". Is this because the ice is breaking up rapidly, or the cooling allows this iceberg to stray so far into temperate waters??? - HLG

Rare Iceberg Spotted Off Island South of Australia
Wednesday, November 11, 2009


Print ShareThis
Australian Government


The iceberg near Macquarie Island.
SYDNEY — A large iceberg was spotted off an island about halfway between Antarctica and Australia, a rare sight in waters so far north, Australian scientists said Thursday.

Australian Antarctic Division researchers working on Macquarie Island, about 930 miles southeast of Tasmania, first saw the iceberg last Thursday about 5 miles off the northwest coast of the island.

The iceberg, about 160 feet high and 1,640 feet long, is probably part of one of several larger icebergs that broke off Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf between 2000 and 2002, Australian Antarctic Division glaciologist Neal Young said.

Several icebergs have been drifting slowly northward with the ocean current toward the island over the past year, but it is uncommon for them to move so far into warmer northern waters, he said.

The scientists believe the iceberg will break up and melt rapidly as it continues its journey north

No Official Winner of "IDA" Track (sorry SK No-coke!)

Well you can see why the NHC officially reviews the tracks and intensities of storms during the off season, and publishes a final official track. "IDA" currently followed a track that was between TS and TD as it crossed the coast, very near the AL/FL border in Baldwin County, AL.

None of our celestial-pool of weather-guessing talent chose anything less than TS. Also, the track is technically in our "Northern Gulf Coast" region, having just missed Florida. We had three picks of Florida on location, but nothing less than TS, so no winners this time kids!

HLG

Global Warming hits Beijing with Earliest Snow in 22 Year! ( Or was it the Beijing Weather Modification Office)

At least they admit they have one! Our Navy/NOAA/AirForce don't admit what they are doing up in Alaksa to control the jet-stream!

Playing with weather stirs debate in China
(AFP) – 10 hours ago

BEIJING — Chinese scientists artificially induced the second major snowstorm to wreak havoc in Beijing this season, state media said, reigniting debate over the practice of tinkering with Mother Nature.

After the earliest snow to hit the capital in 22 years fell on November 1, the capital was again shrouded in white Tuesday with more snow expected in the coming three days, the National Meteorological Centre said.

The China Daily, citing an unnamed official, said the Beijing Weather Modification Office had artificially induced both storms by seeding clouds with chemicals, a practice that can increase precipitation by up to 20 percent.

The office refused to comment on the report when contacted by AFP. On Tuesday, an official had said the storm was "natural".

City weather officials have previously said that such methods are aimed at alleviating a drought over much of north China, including Beijing, that has lingered for more than a decade.

But residents have griped about the flight delays, traffic snarls, cancelled classes and other inconveniences of a surprise snow storm, saying officials could warn them if they are planning to toy with the clouds.

Beyond the day-to-day hassles, experts said the weather manipulation had other undesirable side-effects in the longer term, the paper reported.

"No one can tell how much weather manipulation will change the sky," Xiao Gang, a professor in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the paper.

"We should not depend too much on artificial measures to get rain or snow, because there are too many uncertainties up in the sky."

Zhao Nan, a Beijing engineer, was quoted as saying the more than 5,500 tonnes of erosive snow-melting chloride used on city roads Tuesday -- nearly half the annual allotment -- could "erode steel structures of buildings".

In 2005, the snow-melting agent was responsible for killing 10,000 trees in Beijing and decimating 200,000 square metres (2.15 million square feet) of grassland, the paper said, citing official statistics.

Despite a massive effort to clear the capital of snow that involved over 15,000 workers, many roads remained blocked, while highways into Beijing and in neighbouring Hebei and Shanxi provinces were closed, state press reports said.

Make Final Preparations

They are about to crank up the LHC to look for the God Particle again. So, don't worry too much about Global Warming, no matter what Al says! - HLG

Large Hadron Collider, the piece of baguette, and the end of the world as we know it: something like that.The end of the world may really be nigh. This time. Yep, Nostradamus said 2012, but there's always someone out there who wants to pass the post first.

So it was with the Large Hadron Collider, which one science geek dubbed (and this is slightly paraphrased) "the mighty particle-punishing subterranean 27km supercooled magnetic doughnut", which accelerates subatomic particles to near light speed before smashing them against each other and into dead-ends. Like it was with Y2K, the end of the world as we know it has been and gone, again - even as the wickedly cynical people spread panic that the LHC would cause Earth to be sucked into a black hole of its own making. But when the CERN techno-junkies turned it on, nothing much happened.

Taking 15 years and $9 billion to build, the grand turn-on last September was a big turn-off for PR types used to pulsing spectacle. For instead of turning everyone on the planet into mulch within nanoseconds - and returning the spirit of Great Aunt Sally to boot - the giant accelerator, buried deep under the Franco-Swiss border, didn't much manage to smash up many particles at all, after its super-conducting magnets mysteriously lost their ability to operate at the required energy levels.

While that fix looks to be still some way away (read mid-year next year, maybe), the rehabilitation of LHC has now flown ever further out the window, for reasons even stranger than the thoughts that crossed Alec Irwin's mind over the bolt that crippled Koeberg. In the latest bout of LHC downtime, CERN's best reckoning is that on the 5 November a bird or plane dropped a piece of baguette (in keeping with the Francophone surroundings) onto some electrical machinery above ground. This made sections of the super-machine significantly overheat to -265.15 deg C (which is rather terribly, terribly cold), despite some super-cooling liquid-helium acting as a refrigerant.

What is surprising is that some spy camera at the facility hasn't recorded some manual labourer dropping crumbs from his lunch-time brie-and-pickle sandwiches, and that CERN is blaming humanity's feathered friends (the airplane theory is pretty much out of orbit). Knowing how sensitive such facilities are - whether CERN, Los Alamos or Moonbase Alpha - this will have the securocrats tearing at their hair, while idled and frustrated scientists will wonder how long they will remain becalmed.

Like with Koeberg's mysterious bolt, an uncontrolled shutdown of the LHC could be potentially crippling, as each beam of hadrons is said to have as much energy as an aircraft carrier at full speed. If the ship suddenly stops, the pent up energy is the equivalent of the vessel hitting an iceberg. So whether or not it was a bird or a plane, one must hope that the LHC story doesn’t have the Titanic’s ending

TC "PHYAN" Makes Rare Landing on Indias West Coast

Don't see many TCs in Arabian Sea anyway, and they usually don't head to India. This one was minimal, thankfully, but that is a very dry area (Punjab Desert) of India, so too much rain can be a big problem. We are getting a serious soaking from "IDA" remanants in the Mid-Atlantic next few days. - HLG

"TS"? "IDA" as it approached the Coast

We report. You decide.

Was this a tropical storm?

HLG

West Florida

The NHC is warning of a "storm tide", which I guess is the surge, of 3-5 feet. I think that may be conservative, and there will be problems in the Panhandle from people caught off guard. Looks like MS coast got the lucky card on this storm. Yea!!! HLG

"A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES." NHC

Bad Timing on NW Florida Radar Repairs! (should be back up next week)

000
NOUS64 KMOB 042037
FTMEVX
Message Date: Nov 04 2009 20:37:58

KEVX WSR-88D IS DOWN FOR MAJOR MECHANICAL REPAIRS ON THE RADAR PEDESTAL. ESTIMAT
ED TIME TO RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE 16 NOVEMBER.

Quikscat Pass from Nov 9, AM

Very nic Quikscat pass covering "IDA" this morning. Lots of 50 knot flags in the wind-contaminated, enough to make you think there is a large area of 50 plus, mostly northeast of the storm. Of course scat-science doesn't accurately measure anything above 50 knots, so that is a lower limit. - HLG

Now that Saints Game is Over NOHSEP Makes "IDA" Statement

I guess all the Saints fans got into work late with a slight hangover, because I just received the first "NOLA Alert" email regarding "IDA". Now, what is the point spread against the Rams on Sunday? - HLG



The City of New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (NOHSEP) continues to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ida, as well as, the other atmospheric factors that will contribute to the path of the storm.

Today, LtCol. Jerry Sneed, Director of NOHSEP, participated in a conference call meeting with the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) as well as the National Weather Service to discuss the potential weather threats.

Ida, recently downgraded to tropical storm status, is approximately 275 miles South, Southeast of New Orleans traveling North, Northwest at 16 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 80 miles per hour. Ida has weakened due to influence of cooler Gulf waters and wind shear. Tropical Storm winds (39mph and higher) are expected in the lower part of Plaquemines Parish starting at 11a.m., and are expected to reach the New Orleans Metro area between noon and 3 p.m. Rainfall is expected to reach 2-3 inches with 4 inches possible in some areas. Tides are expected to reach 3-5 feet above normal on eastern facing shorelines, and 2-4 feet above normal in Lake Pontchartrain.

Based on the current storm predictions, NOHSEP is not anticipating any requirement for evacuation in response to this weather event. However, citizens are encouraged to:

Prepare homes for a possible wind event
Check trees and shrubbery, and remove any limbs that could damage your home
Secure any items in your yard that might tear loose or blow away, including garbage cans, grills, potted plants, garden tools, toys, signs, porch furniture, awnings, etc.
Small water craft should return to port and/or seek safe harbor.
NOHSEP recommends that citizens stay informed about the threat by listening to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, and television for the latest WATCHES and WARNINGS. Citizens may also register for weather alerts through the city's alert system at www.nolaready.info

"IDA" Extra-Tropical?

Awful lot of dry air rushing in from the west-side. Doesn't even look very tropical to me this morning, but they still have it as a hurricane. Looks like a big rain-maker more than anything to me now. - HLG

A Little Right of the Track???

Well, looking at the visible loop, it appear Ida is moving a little right of the latest forecast track this afternoon. I just don't think she made it far enough West to cause us too much of trouble ... especially given the fact that there isn't much on the West side of the storm anyway.

"I'm On the MEXICAN ohh ohh, radarioio!"

"IDA" on the bootleg, outlaw, Mexican Radario! Nice, rather largeish eyewall, don't you think? - HLG

Not Too Late to Choose Northern Gulf Coast Dr BB

And you might wanna go with "Hurricane" as intensity, since the flags are up. Batten down the hatches, but the Navy was probably already going to take the day off tomorrow, since the Middies beat the Irish for the Commander in Chief Trohpy!! - HLG

Dr BB's Buoys To the Rescue!

000
WTNT61 KNHC 080414
TCUAT1
HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

HURRICANE IDA?

I'm surprised they haven't made it a hurricane since the winds at the surface are almost
at hurricane strength. This data was taken from Buoy 42056 in the Yucatan Basin - Ida
is essential over the buoy at the moment. Wave heights are approaching 25 ft.

I'll go with Central Gulf Coast - Cat 1, looping around Florida, back into the Gulf, back
into Central Gulf Coast as a sub-non-tropical-tropical-himacane. I figure I have to
extend my forecast since I waited so long to put in my prediction.

I'm leaving the hotel in Marrakesh to return to New Orleans - hopefully. Should return
late Sunday night or Monday morning. Stay safe Geekygirl and Klingfree. Ida completely
ruined my non-tropical season...

BB

Did Everyone Enjoy "March of the Penguins"?

Spoiler alert. I cried when the little guy dies. :(

Looks like "IDA" is going to hit the sweet-spot, and go right through the Yucatan Channel. This certainly increases the prospects we will have a November Hurricane in the Gulf. Oh Boy! If the forecast holds, this storm will do an "ELANA-Loop" over the loop, and will cause anxt all over the northern and eastern Gulf Coasts much of this week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

HLG

PS: Yes, this forecast is for the coke, SK!

"March of the Penguins" on Weather Channel Tomorrow!

Just in case Dr BB forgets, the March of the Penguins premiers on the Weather Channel tomorrow night. Set your Tivo, but this one is a real tear-jerker, and adult penguin situations may not be suitable for our younger viewers. - HLG

Time to Pony-Up on "IDA" Forecasts Weather Studs (and Babes)

You must pick two categories. Region of land-fall, and strength.

A) North-Gulf (AL, MS, LA)
B) Western-Gulf (Texico)
C) Florida

1) TD or less
2) TS
3) Hurricane

I am going for Florida as a hurricane. - HLG

TD 11 Forms, Heads towards Gulf of Mexico

Formed south of Bay of Campeche, but should get into the Gulf somewhere. Going to Florida??? HLG

Early Season "Global Warming" Storm Buries Colorado

Al, Al, help, bring your snow shovel!!! - HLG

Early Season "Global Warming"

Early Season "Global Warming"

Rain, Rain, Go Away (In the PI, that Is)

Phillipine Islands host their fifth TC in the past month. At least this one is a weakling. - HLG

Giant Jellyfish Sinks Japanese Boat.

Sounds like a B-SciFi flick, but truth is stranger than fiction! - HLG

Enormous Jellyfish Sink Japanese Fishing Boat
Monday, November 02, 2009


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File: A diver attaches a sensor to a Nomura's jellyfish off the coast of northern Japan.
Pink, slimy and repellent, the Nomura’s jellyfish is an authentic horror of the deep that's been assaulting Japan. Now the creatures have sunk a 10-ton fishing trawler.

The boat was capsized off Chiba in Japan, as its three-man crew was trying to haul in a net containing dozens of huge Nomura's jellyfish. Four years after they last reared their slimy heads, and for reasons that remain mysterious, an armada of the gelatinous giants has gathered in the Yellow Sea off China and the Korean peninsula.

Now it has drifted into the Sea of Japan, and brought down the Diasan Shinsho-maru. One of the largest jellyfish in the world, the Nomura's jellyfish can grow up to 6 feet in diameter and weigh as much as 400 pounds.

The Telegraph reports that the boat's crew was thrown into the sea, but the three men were rescued by another trawler. The local Coast Guard office reported that the weather was clear and the sea was calm at the time of the accident.

Experts believe weather and water conditions in the breeding grounds, off the coast of China, have been ideal for the jellyfish in recent months.

"The arrival is inevitable," Professor Shinichi Ue at Hiroshima University, told the Yomiuri newspaper. "A huge jellyfish typhoon will hit the country."

In 2005, fishermen looking for anchovies, salmon and yellowtail began finding huge numbers of the jellyfish in their nets. When the Nomuras grow larger than a metre in diameter, half a dozen of them can destroy a fishing net. The fish caught alongside them are poisoned and covered in slime and rendered unsaleable.

So serious was the situation that salmon boats in northern Japan stopped going out, and in some places fishermen lost 80 per cent of their income. Even staff at some of the nuclear power plants along the Japan Sea coast found that the jellyfish got sucked into the pumps which take in sea water to cool the reactors.

No one is sure about the reasons for the slimy plague. One theory is that climate change is heating up the sea water and encouraging them to breed. Another blames effluent from rivers in China, which carries nutrients on which the jellyfish feed. Another blames over-fishing of other species, leaving a surfeit of plankton for the Echizen kurage to feed on.

Late Season Depression in Gulf?

What to the Weather Geeks say? Looks like something tryinig to form in Gulf of Campeche. Is it forming? Tropical? Extra-pseudo-sub-Tropical? HLG