End of July, or Beginning of Tropical Season?

Looks like 4 or 5 candidates for developing out there, as we head into August. Stay tuned tropical weather watchers. - HLG

Take your gas mask with you on trip to Moscow

Enormous peat and forest fires are sending smoke plumes over the vast metropolis, causing lots of breathing problems. - HLG

It really didn't look that bad from space

But what a mess on the ground! Still without power. - HLG

One of the most destructive storms in years struck Washington, D.C., and the surrounding area on July 25, 2010. Strong winds downed trees and power lines, leaving hundreds of thousands of residents without power, stopping elevators, and darkening malls and movie theaters. Falling trees killed at least two people. The following morning, crews were working furiously to restore power to homes, traffic lights, and even a water treatment plant.
The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)—built and launched by NASA, and operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—captured a series of images of the storm activity on July 25, 2010. This image is a composite of clouds from GOES merged with background data of the land surface from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The animation shows a series of thunderstorms coalescing as the fast-moving front travels from the Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic. By 4:15 p.m. Eastern Daylight Savings Time, the strongest thunderstorms were directly over Washington, D.C.
The violent storms followed on the heels of relentless heat for the U.S. East Coast. “The East Coast has been baking for weeks,” explains George Huffman, a research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “It’s been hot and muggy, with lots of moisture in the air, and that stuff has been trapped under a high-pressure system. Storms had been steering around the edges of that system. In fact, the flight that experienced so much turbulence last week was along the edge of that high pressure.”
Forecasts had raised the possibility of severe weather for the East Coast on July 25, and Huffman watched the storm system as it traveled over Ohio and Pennsylvania, remaining intact as it moved. “You tend not to see well-organized lines of thunderstorms at 9:00 a.m.,” he says. But the storm system coming from the west did not dissipate, even in the mid-morning hours. “The large-scale pattern shifted, allowing the high pressure to our northwest, which is cooler and drier, to push toward the southeast. That push was strong enough to organize the squall lines that fed off of our hot, muggy conditions,” he explains. “As storms come across the mountains toward the coastal plain, they have three options: hang together, get stronger, or get weaker. This storm system got stronger.” - NASA

Large Dust Cloud from the Sahara

One of the densest clouds I have seen from satellite. - HLG

DC In the Dark

He had an amazing sqaull line come through DC metro yesterday, about 15:00-15:30. Trees were snapping and transformers a-blowing. Never a good thing, because when you power goes you now it will be days, not hours before you see it again. Luckily I went to the grocery the day before, so I have hundreds of dollars of food to go bad. Yes, I did think of getting ice, but the stores went bare of that precious commodity in less than an hour. My real question is whether the "Prez" will call us a bunch of non-Chicago pansies when we get upset about swetting, and wrotten food in our homes, like he did during the snow storms of the winter. - HLG

Fast-moving storm batters D.C. area; 2 deaths, mass power outages reported


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By Stephanie Lee and Martin Weil
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 26, 2010

One of the most violent and destructive thunderstorms in years ripped across the Washington region Sunday, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses, starting fires, damaging houses, and causing at least two deaths.

This Story
Intense storm batters region
Severe storms kill one and cut power to hundreds of thousands (Photos)
Heat burns up D.C. -- again
A 6-year-old boy was killed when struck by a falling section of a tree in Loudoun County about 3:15 p.m. And a woman was killed when a tree fell on a minivan in College Park about 3:30 p.m.

Power was cut off to a WSSC plant that supplies 70 percent of the water for Montgomery and Prince George's counties. Authorities asked residents to curb consumption and refrain from any outdoor use.

"We're calling for mandatory water restrictions to ensure fire protection and to ensure everyone can have at least a minimum" of water for household use, said a WSSC spokesman.

Amid gusts said to be 60 mph or more, trees and branches across the area toppled onto electrical wires, streets and houses. Roofs were lifted from buildings. Roads were blocked, and dozens of traffic signals went dark.

Late Sunday night, about 400,000 homes and businesses from Northern Virginia to Maryland remained in the dark. More than 290,000 Pepco customers were without electricity, the vast majority in Montgomery County.

Stores, movie theaters and concerts went dark, as did some Metro stations. Montgomery fire department personnel freed residents from stalled elevators. A Metro passenger was trapped in an elevator at the Wheaton Station; after being extricated, she was treated for heat exhaustion.

Some Pepco customers said an automated telephone-line message told them that electricity might not be restored for at least a week, but a spokeswoman for the utility said no estimate for full restoration had been made.

The number of outages in the Pepco service area appeared to be the largest since Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

With power and air conditioning out in thousands of Prince George's homes, county executive Jack Johnson said that six fire stations and all community and recreation centers would be open as cooling stations.

"I ask everyone to check on their neighbors to be sure they are safe," he said.

Bonnie and the Wooly Bear

While anticipating the much hyped arrival of Tropical Storm Bonnie, we observed this Wooly Bear making himself at home on the front porch.   According to the Farmer's Almanac, it is believed that the Wooly Bear predicts the severity of the upcoming winter.    This caterpillar stage of the Isabella Tiger Moth, is normally seen with a varying number of brown segments.  The larger the number of brown segments, the milder the upcoming winter.  Mr. Wooly Bear here has ZERO brown segments and since we don't normally see the Wooly Bears in these parts until around September, it seems to be a harbinger of doom.   Wooly Bear says Bonnie will dump two feet of snow and cripple the south with an early winter which will extend into May. 

All hail the great wooly bear!
:-)
gg

BONNIE???

Have anyone see the storm lately? Does anyone know where it went?





BB

TD "Bonnie" Over South Florida

Will she regain TS status???

TS "Bonnie" Model Bias

One of the most persistant I have seen. The blue track was the first forecast, on through the colors of the rainbow to red, the current forecast. By the time this lands, it will probably hit Panama City! Is anyone else getting the feeling the intensity forecasts are low for second landfall? - HLG

FROM THE INTENSE TROPICAL STORM EXPERT ANALYSIS EXTREME WEATHER AND TSUNAMI DESK

Fans of FWSAAB,

Tropical Storm Bonnie is heading into the Gulf of Mexico. Our faithful readers along the Gulf Coast, all three of you, please prepare your homes, lawns and gardens. Bonnie is expected to rival the intensity of Ida (2009) as it reached the Gulf Coast - don't remember our November storm?

This announcement made from the Intense Tropical Storm Expert Analysis Extreme Weather Tsunami Desk at FWSAAB Headquarters.

BB

Typhoon "Chanthu"

This storm developed very rapidly, and an eye formed just before landfall. This part of China was just hit by a tropical storm, and has had tremendous flooding already this year. - HLG

NHC Waiting fo TD to Hit Miami before "Numbering"?

Clearly a surface low, which is surprisingly vigorous in light of the upper level winds, has formed north of Cuba. Accuweather has no problem calling it, what it is, Depression Number 3, but not the NHC? Are they flying down today?

Tropical System Soon to Impact South Florida, Keys
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Jul 22, 2010; 8:45 AM ETShare | .

A new tropical depression that is being monitored for possible strengthening into a tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will spread drenching and gusty thunderstorms from the Bahamas to South Florida into Friday before entering the Gulf of Mexico.

HWRF HASN'T GIVEN UP

OK - so it isn't the K-storm (Geeky Girl flogged me mightily for that one) but the Hurricane WRF model hasn't stopped forecasting Bonnie to hit the Gulf Coast this weekend.

BB

Enough Tropical Talk: Look at the Pretty Colors!

What a beautiful dust storm in Boliva. So colorful! - HLG

East Coast or Gulf Coast?

The models do like Dr BB's Low to not be poopey this time, and certainly to threaten Florida. Your job as true weater babes and studs is to forecast whether this will be a Gulf Coast threat, or an East Coast storm, after the Florida encounter?

AND SO IT BEGINS

GFS indicating the tropical "activity" will move up along the Florida coast in the next couple of days.  Just need to wait and see if the Bermuda High builds in and pushes the system towards the west.

BB

TD 3 Forming in Straits of Florida?

Somehow this one doesn't even rate a "low probability of TC formation" at the NHC, but looks like trouble to me. - HLG

TS 03 W "Consoon"

It has been a very slow year for the JTWC. This storm is very minor by WPAC standards. - HLG

After Days of Nagging NHC Finally Give in on "Bonnie"

Good thing since they missed TD "2" off Louiaiana the other day!

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080304
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

11:00 PM and still in the 90s in DC

Reminds me of a 4th of July I once spent in Nuevo Loredo, but that's a different story.

Latest 11 PM (3) Jul 07 91.0 (32.8) 66.9 (19.4) 29.98 (1015) Calm

FWSAAB MILESTONE - 1000 POSTS!!!

Thanks to our loyal editor - HLG - Four Weather Studs and a Babe reached a milestone today with 1000 posts.  An amazing accomplishment for our silly blog.

Of course - this goes directly to the question "If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, will it make a sound?"  or "If five friends (actually three people write to this blog) submit blog posts and no one is around to read them, will anyone care?"


We leave that question to our dedicated reader.

Congrats FWSAAB!

BB

"Bonnie" wilL Pass over "Alex" Cooled Gulf Waters

As "Bonnie" continues to develop, in spite of only being a 30-50 percent-chance-of-development area, it will be passing over "Alex" cooled waters, on nearly the exact same track as "Alex". Will this slow development of this rapidly moving system???

FSU Surface Current/Oil-Spill Movement Model

Best I have seen, and seems to be modeling the actual behavior of the spill better than anything I have seen. Was the first to show oil getting into Lake Borgne/Pontchartrain the last few days, and well into the Pearl River Delta. -HLG

http://deepwaterhorizon.fsu.edu/projections/hycom/latest_spill.gif

"Bonnie" looks like repeat of "Alex"

The models are really getting focused on the Brownsville area for this one.

Chinese "Cap and Trade": July 2010 Installment

I am sure they are working on reducing all that coal-based CO2!

"Poopey" Low, TD 2, or TS "Bonnie"

Thank God for radar, since it appears the NHC wouldn't know a TD if it came ashore, and was on satellite, radar, and surface obs! Oh My!

FWSAAB "CALLS OUT" NHC - AND THEY BLINK!

Expert Tropical Storm Meteorologist - HLG - alerted our faithful readers to an odd announcement by the NHC - one which said the "poopey" low south of Louisiana would have a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm before landfall.  Once the NHC had been "called out" by HLG - they quickly (and correctly) changed their statement to the following:

"A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND ...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

FWSAAB - Your Sexy FIRST LINE to Understanding Tropical Cyclones this Season.

BB

Very Odd "Warning" from NHC

It seems that a "well-defined" low is just off the Louisiana coast, and is coming on-shore, and will produce "tropical-storm" force winds, but it idsn't even a TD. Huh? It does rate being a "greater than 50 percent" chance of forming a cyclone on the map. HUH??? - HLG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052109
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

NW Caribbean Low Forecast

The models look like a shot-gun spray for this one. Can't really argue with persistance of motion track. None of the tracks are good for the oil-spill clean-up, but the tracks to the right are far worse, or course. - HLG

NHC Finally Agree, and Adds 1 More

Four tropical disturbances in the Western Atlantic at once. Oh my!!

Invest AL96

or TD 2? TS "Bonnie"

Scatterometry would really help on this one. Tell your congress-person!

I think this had "B" for bad written all over it. It is forming well out in the water, compared to "Alex" which formed nearby, but very, very close to Belize.

HLG

Which TD will Form First?

"B C and D". Take your pick!

Wish we had a scatterometer, especially for that mess in the NW Carib.

Dr BB's Cute Little (i.e. Poopey) Low is now Invest 95L

And it is simply prcesious, other than kicking up 15-20 kt winds alreay, right over the oil spill. Yuk!

Dr BB's Poopey Low

The models are still pooping that low out in the norther GOMEX. None of them are picking up on the NW Caribbean, which continues to look good. Forecast here is for the "B" storm to come out of the NW Carib, and Dr BB's Poopey Low to remain just that.

HLG

TD "Alex" Still Circulating Just South of West Texas!

Amazing to see after it has been inland for days, rose up over the mountains, and is over one of the great deserts of Norte Americano.

GFS "Poop" Vs Satellite Imagery

I don't know about Dr BB's model-poop analysis, but the Atlantic wide Vis shows four nearly equally spaced disturbances/waves, with an improving upper-level scenario. It is going to be a very long, oily, tropical season, unfortunately. The only hope is that one of these storms becomes a massive hurricane and plows straight up the Chessapeake and floods DC so long that Congress has to close down til the mid-term election! HLG

TROUBLE IN THE OIL PATCH?

The GFS "poops" out a little system south of New Orleans by Sunday.  If you have FWSAAB's Pay-For-Play Site Access - you will find out exactly what our team of experts will accurately (for a price) forecast.  For our non-Pay-For-Play customers - all we can say is "Watch and wait."

BB (FWSAAB Business Development Expert)

Where are the West Pac Typhoons?

Has there been one yet this year?

"B" Storm Forming in NW Carib?

Looking like a very long hurricane season!

Example of Proposed FWSAAB "Graphics"

As drawn by the genius, Scott Adams.

FWSAAB's New Pricing Structure

Dear Loyal FWSAAB Readers,

Due to the economy and higher levels of forecasting effort caused by global warming - FWSAAB Inc. is announcing a new forecast pricing structure.  This gives us a great opportunity to match our reader's income level with our forecasting accuracy.  Unlike some other "so called" pay-for-forecast weather services, FWSAAB will tell you how accurate the forecast will be - based on the price you are willing to pay.

New Pricing Structure

         Cost                 Forecast Accuracy
$100 per month                     50%
$250 per month                     55%
$500 per month                     75%

During Tropical Season          Landfall Accuracy
$1000 per month                24 hr - 50 nm, 48 hr - 100 nm, 72 hr - 150 nm

Compare our prices - and our accuracies - and you will agree:

FWSAAB - It's not just an unpronounceable acronym, it is a joke.

FWSAAB Business Department

July 1st in DC and We Haven't Topped 80 Degrees!

Noon (16) Jul 01 78 (26) 39 (4) 30.27 (1025) NW 5

Unreal weather.

Great Internal Waves in Persian Gulf

Same as "Arabian" Gulf to you navy types!

Best Weather U-Haul Truck EVER!

Beauty Shot of Alex from MODIS

Very large circulation, but looking at this image it was hard to see that the storm was going to strengthen all the way ashore, and be approaching Major Hurricane status as it landed. Luckily it hit one of the least populated stretches of the Mexican Gulf Coast. - HLG

HURRICANE ALEX DRIVES ASHORE

As our Chief Tropical Meteorologist, and resident hunk, Dr. HLG predicted two weeks ago - Alex became a strong Category Two hurricane - which slammed into Mexico yesterday.  Here is a rapid scan image from CIMSS

FWSAAB - Always giving you the sexiest and most reliable information about weather, the environment, climate and the latest fashions - before any other weather stud blog.  Compare our prices and find out for yourself.

BB