Congress leaving early AND TS heading straight up the coast?

Coincidence? Yea, sure!

Models have MATTHEW Crossing into Pacific, OR Heading Due North

Well that should help for planning next week! -HLG

Very bad forecast for Central America

Slow moving large storm system will mean tremendous rains in the mountains of Central America. Very bad news for a half dozen countries. - HLG

Next storm will be "Nicole"

Just had to mention that to get Klingfree all worked up!

Very Strange Forecast Track for TS "Matthew" otheriwse know as Hurriacne Dr BB

Well the NHC got off the pot, and made it a TD, until they get the plane in it, when we all know it will be "Matthew". What an odd forecast track. If this holds the entire Mayan Coast of Mexico is going to get pummeled. Kind of reminds you of Wilma from 2005. -HLG

Dr BB's Storm 2010 Clearly a TD

Even though the NHC has a red circle still, the satellite imagery says otherwise.

So, where will it end up. Mexico? Once? Twice? US Gulf Landing???

Nuissance Storm? Hurricane?


My vote is hurricane, with one Mexico landing, then somewhere in lower Texas coast.

HLG

Ominous TD Forming in Carib.

Is this the foretold Hurricane Dr BB 2010?

DR BB's Heracane

Nothing like the GFS run from a few days ago - but still showing something hanging out in the Caribbean.  Later time steps show the storm moving harmlessly off into the Atlantic - like all
the other fishy storms we've had this year (sorry Bermuda).

BB

Dr BB's Hurricane?

If this is it, the models are having serious problems getting a handle on it's future. How does it get to the Gulf like this? -HLG

Red-Circle Watch

Will this red-circle in the eastern ATL become the dreaded hurricane Dr BB forecast??? Will OU play up to their potential this year, or down to the competition? Will Notre Dame win more than 4 games???
HLG

Guess where Julia will go!

You can't do worse than the current models. The spread is from Ireland to Nova Scotia, and all points in between! - HLG

Igor and Julia Doing the Fujiwara?

Very close to it, if not. Rare event in the Atlantic. Check out the visible loops. And no, that is not a euphamism your pervs! - HLG

Yea Buoys!!!

000
WTNT31 KNHC 170257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...IGOR PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY...GOOD DATA COLLECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 58.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

Cutest Little Cane

Don't know about Dr BB's Monster storm in two weeks, but Karl is just the cutest little cane you ever seen! - HLG

HURRICANE IN THE NORTHERN GULF?

Anyone want to believe a 14 day forecast from the GFS?

BB

Karl Heading Due SW?

The visible loops appear to be showing Karl heading almost due SW, but certainly south of west. I think this forecast will not hold, and it will hug the coastline, and bring heavy rains to areas tha have had tropical flooding multiple times this year already. - HLG

"Julia' Yesterday, on her way to Major status

TS "Karl"?

NHC still says "red-circle"

Hurricane Image of the Year (so far)

Perfectly symmetrical "Igor".

Julia and the Cape Verde's

Looks like TS "Julia" will form first in the eastern Atlantic, but that means "Karl" will be heading to the NW Carib and Gulf next week. "Karl" sounds worse to me.

TS Warnings up for the Southern Cape Verde Islands. You don't see that every year. - HLG

Juuuulia.... Juuuuuliaaaaa

Looking very bad in the Central Carib today, and the models are largely showing a storm heading towards the Gulf this week. Stay tuned. - HLG

Embarassment to the Name "IGOR"!

Another Nasty Winter Coming for the East?

Farmer's Almanac says so, so it must be true!

Frigid 2010 Forecast: How cold will this winter be?

Old Man Winter doesn’t want to give up his frigid hold just yet, but his hold will mostly be in the middle of the country.

According to the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac, this winter will see more days of shivery conditions: a winter during which temperatures will average below normal for about three-quarters of the nation.

A large area of numbingly cold temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to west of the Appalachians (see map). The coldest temperatures will be over the northern Great Lakes and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. But acting almost like the bread of a sandwich, to this swath of unseasonable cold will be two regions with temperatures that will average closer to normal—theWest Coast and the East Coast.

What about snow/rain/ice?

Near-normal amounts of precipitation are expected over the eastern third of the country, as well as over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, while drier-than-normal conditions are forecast to occur over the Southwest and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

Only the Central and Southern Plains are expected to receive above-average amounts of precipitation.

Blizzards?

While three-quarters of the country is predicted to see near- or below average precipitation this winter, that doesn’t mean there won’t be any winter storms! On the contrary, significant snowfalls are forecast for parts of every zone. For the Middle Atlantic and Northeast States, for instance, we are predicting a major snowfall in mid-February; possibly even blizzard conditions for New England (indeed, even shovelry is not dead).

What about spring and summer?

Find out when the first and last snowflakes may fall in your area by ordering a copy of the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac today.

A Very Dry Capitol

Dew points here have dropped nearly 30 degrees in just over 4 hours. Yowza!

2 PM (18) Sep 08 91 (33) 32 (0) 29.85 (1010) W 18
1 PM (17) Sep 08 91 (33) 42 (6) 29.87 (1011) WSW 14
Noon (16) Sep 08 89 (32) 42 (6) 29.88 (1011) WSW 17
11 AM (15) Sep 08 87 (31) 51 (11) 29.89 (1012) WNW 14
10 AM (14) Sep 08 86 (30) 55 (13) 29.91 (1012) NW 12
9 AM (13) Sep 08 84 (29) 60 (16) 29.9 (1012) W 15

Hurricane IGOR, oh no!!!

Beware of any hurricane named after "Eye-gore", the creepy guy in Young Frankenstein, or if pronounced "Eee-gore", is the name of an evil Russian Czar from the 9th century!

Either way this has trouble written all over it, and will likely visit the islands or the mainland US.

A) Will it become the third Major Hurricane of the season?
B) will pull a Gaston, and be a complete dud?
C) Pummel the eastern seaboard, and hopefully shut-down DC?
D) Be a Cat-5 and ruin the Saints victory parade next week, after they ruin Grandpa Favre's opener this week?

Stay tuned!

Hermine over the Texican Desert

Nice pic. Not sure if the Hill Country flooded, but Texas will sure be green for a while! - HLG

Ex-Gaston

Gotta love the NHC. The name of the current Gaston statellie floater loop is "Ex-Gaston", whatever that means. Looks like a TD to me, and most models still say Gulf, so maybe Gaston will go to Mardi Gras! - HLG

Will "Hermine" Form in Western Gulf this Week?

Will there be time?

Ocean looks ripe, with a massive ridge in the upper levels to the north. Stay tuned Texicans! - HLG

Done with TWC and "Al in the Morning"

I get all my weather-girl video fixes from Accuweather now. The gals there are smarter, and a lot cuter. All-American types! So, here is your Accuwweather College Football Forecast.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/601272958001/smell-that-college-football-i.asp

Gotta Luv the BAMM Solutions for "Fiona"

BAMM appears to have blown-up on Fiona.

Accuweather Interviews Dr Weatherhead

What a name for a climatologist!

http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/summer10articles/geospatial-responses.html

Seoul to Get A Second Typhoon in a Week?

Very rare stuff going on in the WPAC this year. - HLG

Beautiful "Earl" and the Bahamas, PLUS Pretty Colors

Beauty shot from MODIS of Earl yesterday as he passed east of the prettiest water in the world, and the new warnings from NHC this morning stretch from SC to Nova Freaking Scotia, and there are colors on the map I didn't even know they used!

Since sailing on the Bay is out this weekend, I am checking out and going to Kentucky, which is my decades long hurricane plan. Bonus this weekend will see the Mighty Louisville Cardinals WHIP up on the Kittycats of Kentucky!! GO CARDS! - HLG

Stinky Air and Rising Swamp Water

I do so love the weird combinations you get in the forecast for the national capitol region!

I do completely disagree with the marine forecast for the Chesapeake that the winds will only be 10-15 kts on Friday. That seems very low to me. Stay tuned. - HLG

TD 10 by Saturday? Can more be far behind?

Your FWSAAB tropical empiricists pointed out the very, very, long line of waves all across Africa days ago, and now there is another yellow circle on the NHC map. If you are one of those weirdos who study historical patterns of track clusters, lay your french curve on the current tropical activity and it looks like bad news for weeks along the east coast of the US. - HLG

Will Gaston Go to Mardi Gras Town?

Get your votes in early.

A) Gaston will re-curve into the Atlantic

B) Gaston will be a nuissance storm, somewhere in the Gulf

C) Gaston will be a major hurricane and Mardis Gras floats will be very afraid.

D) Why are we voting on this now? Because this dorky blogger will be blown away by Earl this weekend, and not get to see the full life of Gaston The Gator Storm

One Ugly Surface Map

Well the watches and warnings are up from Hatteras to Cape Cod. I don't remember the last time I saw that many people covered at one time. Let's hope the models are on target, and the core of Earl stays off-shore. The official surface forecast map from NCEP shown here, for Friday 0000Z is butt-ugly, though. -hlg

Shouldn't "Earl" Watch Includ Chesapeake Bay?

It just feels odd that there is a Hurricane Watch on the east side of the Delmarva, but 30 miles west, in the large Chesapeake Bay we don't even get a TS Watch? They always include or exclude Lake Okeehobee in the South Florida watches/warning, and the specifically include the Albemarle Sound in the Hurricane Warning. Does this mean there is no problem for the Chesapeake? Should I go sailing this weekend on the Bay? - HLG

Kompasu and Seoul

Not the strongest typhoon ever, but Kompasu did make a right hook and a direct hit on Seoul, and her 20 million souls. - HLG

Number 9, Number 9, Number 9 ...

Finally, the red-circle is gone, and "Gaston" is at least recognized as an OFFICIAL TD! If we could only get a plane out there, or an American Scatteromtry Mission!

This is the furthest south of any of the Cape Verde's so far, so could be bad news for the Far Western Atlantic, i.e. you guys in Da Gulf! - HLG

NHC Satellite Imagery Balky?

The satellite imagery link from the NHC has been out, off and on (mostly out) since late yesterday. Coincidence, or is it being overwhelmed by an east coast threat (worst case is 30 million would have to evacuate IF the storm takes a western track), with the end-of-summer holiday weekend coming up. Yowza!- HLG

Post-Trop VS Extratrop?

Maybe I missed something, but what is the difference? Seems like the NHC can't decide! - HLG

INITIAL 01/0900Z 24.0N 71.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 25.8N 72.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 74.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.3N 75.2W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.6N 74.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 50.0N 61.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/0600Z 57.0N 58.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Red Circle, TD, or "Gaston"?

You get to vote! NHC says "Red Circle".

I say AT LEAST TD 9, probably TS "Gaston". - HLG