Cape Verde Assembly Line?

We have seen Earl, Danielle, and now Fiona. Is that "G", "H", "I", and "J" lined up behind them? - HLG

WPAC Finally Heats Up

Three Tropical Cyclones in one image, although two are very weak. Best Typhoon name ever? Typhoon "LIONROCK"! - HLG

"Danielle" is now "Post-Tropical"

Mabye I was sleeping, but what happened to "Extra-Tropical"? Do we always use "Post-Tropical" now? Is that similar to Post-Modernism?? - HLG

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...AMSU MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM-CORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT BUT IS
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN
THE VICINITY OF DANIELLE IN RECENT HOURS. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION...WEAKENING OF THE WARM-CORE AND A NON-TROPICAL
SATELLITE APPEARANCE...DANIELLE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICALSTORM ON THIS ADVISORY. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OVERTAKING DANIELLE BY LATE TOMORROW.

TS "Danielle" Aims for Greenland

Surely this has something to do with Global Alarming! - HLG

Wait til Klingfree See This from the NHC

The new track is truly odd. The push the storm further west early in the track, but then a sharp turn around 72 hours. Hmmmm. This could be a doozy if it does track further west, hits the Outter Banks, and then straight up the Delmarva towards Long Island. Oh my!

Here is the exact "explanation" from the NHC:

TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

Cat 2 Hurricane "Danielle" From TRMM

Very nice pass of TRMM right over Danielle's core when it was a Cat 2 storm on the 28th of August, 2010. - HLG

St Maarten's Radar

Well-developed eye, looks to be takign dead aim on Anegada Island, British VI. Puerto Rico, and US Virgins appear to be lucky with missing a direct hit from Earl. - HLG

"Finoa" too close to "Earl" to Develop?

I thought "Earl" was too close to "Danielle" to do much. So much for that one! - HLG

The Return of KlingFree

The world is still buzzing tonight, and talk of Emmy winners squelched, as we discovered that KlingFree returned to FWSAAB World Studios last night. Similar to his previous posts, before his disastrous decision to quit FWSAAB and make a name for himself on late night weather comedy, his wit, intelligence and sex appeal haven't changed. Everyone still remembers his love affair with a Weather Channel Hurricane Hunter, their escapades documented on the Disney Channel's documentary "Two Forecasters - One Soul." Now all that is forgotten - and brave, little KlingFree has returned to his roots.

We welcome his latest post -and his future posts. KlingFree, we never knew thee.

BB

1st Official Post (I think) of the 2010 Atlantic Season

... and a fitting day for it to say the least.

So, it looks like the axis of the 1st trough sits at about 67W as Earl approaches 62W. I keep waiting for the abrupt right turn that has been forecast to start after the initialization of each new model run, but I don't see it yet. In fact, it looks like Earl has darted West in the last few frames. So I ask, has the 1st trough exerted as much influence as it can over Earl AND will the 2nd trough forecast to push off the East coast be able to pick him up?

Enquiring weather stud minds want to know.

This has been an Official Klingfree Post.

EAST COAST ALERT?

Is Earl ready to take out most of the East Coast next week? The FWSAAB Storm Central Meteorologists (and a Geographer) are on "HIGH EXTREME STORM MAKEOVER ALERT" to keep our faithful reader - READY AND WILLING - for any EXTREME STORM HIGH ALERT WARNINGS EXTREME potential alerts.

Did I say EXTREME HIGH INTENSITY ALERT WARNING EXTREME WEATHER CHAOS?

Whatever.

BB

MAGIC EIGHT BALL SAYS....

"Fishy Storms."

BB

TS Earl and Others

Two very healthy waves are lined up behind TS "Earl". The question for the FSWAABers is "Will all of these be fish-storms?" - HLG

Only a red circle at NHC?

Sure looks like TS "Earl" to me, but hard to see how it is NOT a TD at least! - HLG

GAFFES YOU WON'T SEE AT FWSAAB WORLD WEATHER STUDIOS

NEW FWSAAB WEATHER REPORTER

If you do this at the FWSAAB World Weather Studios - you would be promoted.

BB

Vewy, Vewy Bad Comrade

Levels of carbon monoxide from massive fires, as measured from orbit. Red = vewy bad, and certainly imperialist conspiracy. - HLG

Washington Literally Going Down the Sewer

So get your sandbags, it might rain today! - HLG

DPW TO PROVIDE SANDBAGS TO DC RESIDENTS TODAY
BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT AT NEW JERSEY AND K, SE SITE

(Washington, DC) The DC Department of Public Works announced today that District residents may pick up sandbags (up to four per household) at its New Jersey Avenue and K Street, SE site (entrance on New Jersey at I Street, SE). The sandbags weigh between 40 lbs. and 50 lbs. and residents will need to load them into their vehicles. Weather forecasters predict rain storms starting around 9 pm that could cause flooding.

DPW will have employees and signage directing residents to the site entrance

- DC HSEMA via Rome Secure

Trouble in Eastern Carib?

Very healthy wave, with favorable upper-level situation ahead. Stay tuned tropical fans. - HLG

What in the Name of Nash Roberts is Going On?

I fell asleep over the weekend, and "TD 5" went ashore, or did it? Is this still "TD 5"? What would Nash draw on his blackboard??? - HLG

Coastal Flooding in Chesapeake?

An "inch or two" Huh?


A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN THE MORNING
CYCLE...BUT ONLY BY AN INCH OR TWO. NWS

Spotter Observations from Dissipated TD #5

So I had to go out and observe the storm this morning and it was so wicked I could barely stand up to take these photos.   As you can see we have major weather impacting the Gulf Coast this morning.    Everyone be careful out there and if you must travel, use extreme caution.....   gg

Monsoon from TRMM

The SW monsoon has been unusually heavy in Pakistan, thus triggering the massive, deadly flooding. The overall pattern is very interesting, and India is not getting her normal monsoon rains over large areas. Stay-tuned monsoon watchers! - HLG

REMNANT LOW NEAR FWSAAB

FWSAAB Central is hunkered down as tropical whatever rushes ashore.  Stayed tuned to the latest tropical news from your only source of sexy tropical information.

BB

WestPac Continues as Weak as I have Ever Seen

Does anyone know the last time there was so little activity in the WPAC? There is a TS, "DIANMU" out there right now, but by WPAC standards barely worth mentioning! - HLG

Story of "Danielle and Earl"

The situation is looking ominous in the tropical Atlantic basin. I think "Daniell" is already formed out in the center of the basin, but the NHC officially has it as a red circle. The Florida Bay low, though obviously interacting with the upper low east of the peninsula is looking very ominous to me, and I fully expect "Earl" to be there by tomorrow. I think the big problem with this one is not many people are paying much attention to it, but such a large circulation could have problems ahead of it, well before the hurricane forms, as it heads straight for NOLA and the MSGC. Yowza! - HLG

AccuWeather.com - Weather Video - System in the Gulf Bears Watching

Ever wonder where Marc Macusso disappeared to? Apparently he went up to Accuweather, and is warning about the Gulf Low.




AccuWeather.com - Weather Video - System in the Gulf Bears Watching

Enough with Hurricanes.

Time to to another story from the "Fun with Flying" chapter of FWSAAB. - HLG

From the Associated Press 8/9:

NEW YORK — A JetBlue flight attendant got into an argument with a passenger on a jetliner arriving at John F. Kennedy International Airport on Monday, cursed the passenger, grabbed a beer from the galley and then deployed an emergency exit slide and fled the plane, authorities said.

Story continues belowFlight attendant Steven Slater was arrested at his nearby home in the Belle Harbor section of Queens by Port Authority of New York And New Jersey police on charges of criminal mischief, reckless endangerment and trespassing.

Slater, 39, remained in custody Monday night. His attorney's name wasn't immediately available, and there was no home telephone number listed for him. A woman who answered a phone at a previous residence listed for Slater in Thousand Oaks, Calif., identified herself as his mother but said she wasn't speaking to the media.

JetBlue Airways Corp. said in a statement that it was working with the Federal Aviation Administration and Port Authority police to investigate the matter. It said the safety of its customers and crew members was never at risk.

Slater was working on JetBlue Flight 1052 from Pittsburgh when he got into an argument with the passenger, who was pulling down baggage from an overhead bin, the Port Authority said. The luggage apparently struck the attendant in the head and he asked for an apology, but the passenger refused, the agency said.

As the plane was landing, Slater got on the public-address system and cussed at the passenger, the Port Authority said. He then grabbed at least one beer, activated the slide, slid down and went to his car, it said.

Port Authority police were notified about 25 minutes later.

JetBlue would not say how long Slater had been employed by the company.

By Monday night, several Facebook pages had been set up in tribute to Slater, with many users of the social networking site expressing support for him for walking off the job.

CAT ONE BY THURSDAY?

GFDL presented an interesting solution this morning - showing the tropical low to become a Cat One storm by Thursday. GFS shows a remnant low and the HWRF yawns in excitement.

Still awaiting any word from either Klingfree or Larster this year.

BB

Surface Low in Florida Bay?

Radar indicates that there is a broad low in the precrip banding. Stay tuned Gulf hurricane veterans. - HLG

NOAA Still Predicting Significantly Above Average Hurricane Totals for 2010

But since it is mid-August, and we have had nothing but crap so far, why not?

I still predict LeBron will be with the Cavs next year! - HLG

Updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary August 5th, 2010

NOAA’s updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 90% chance of an above normal season. There is only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and no expectation the season will be below normal. Therefore, 2010 is expected to become the eleventh above-normal season since 1995. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region (or basin) includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions now in place over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are very conducive to hurricane formation, as was predicted in NOAA’s pre-season outlook issued in May. These conditions are expected to persist throughout the peak months (August-October) of the Atlantic hurricane season, in association with three climate factors; the tropical multi-decadal signal, La Niña, and very warm temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. In addition, dynamical model forecasts tropical cyclone activity continue to predict a very active season.

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal (June-November) ranges of activity during 2010. These ranges are consistent with NOAA’s May outlook, and reiterate a high likelihood of a very active season (i.e. hyperactive, defined by ACE ? 175% of median), perhaps one of the more active on record.

14-20 Named Storms,
8-12 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 170%-260% of the median.
The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in about 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

These ranges include the two tropical storms and one hurricane seen to date. During June – July 2010, two named storms (Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie) formed in the Atlantic basin. The pre-season outlook issued in late May reflected the possibility of even more early-season activity. As a result, the upper ends of the predicted ranges have been reduced.

Nonetheless, significant activity is predicted for the remainder of the season, with an additional 12-17 named storms, of which 7-11 are expected to become hurricanes with 4-6 reaching major hurricane status.

Any region or community can experience a devastating hurricane regardless of the overall seasonal activity. However, during hyperactive seasons, the historical probability for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply. Therefore, it is even more imperative for this season that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have an effective hurricane preparedness plan in place.

NOAA does not make an official seasonal landfall outlook. Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a specific locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.

Zero to 60 in One Advisory!

Is that the record? "Colin" was not worth reporting on, and is now at 60 mph. My memory may be getting worse, but is that the record? Good thing it is a fish storm, unless you are Bermudian! - HLG

Smoke, smoke, everywhere!

I am amazed by the continuous plume of smoke you can now trace all across norther Russia, US, and Canada. It seems that nearly eveyrthing is on fire, or under a pall of smoke north of 60 degrees latitude. This image is a three image mosaic of the fires/smoke over western Russia. Rememnber the swath width of MODIS can be well over 1000 miles, so this is a lot of territory. What in the name of Al Gore is going on? Global Burning? Was that in "An Inconvenient Cloud of Smoke"? - HLG

Will "Colin" Be "Colin" again, or straight to "Danielle"

It seems this comes up at least once a year nwo, but since the official notice went out that "Colin" was a degenerate remnant low (how rude!), and lost it's status, even if it never went away, what will it be now that it is back? Officially it is juts an orange circle of maybe 50 percent probability at this writing, but will surely be a TS by this time tomorrow. - HLG

"Colin" reforming? TD "5" in the Carib?

Stay tuned, because what a unique mess. It appears to this observer thta "Colin" was prematurely deceased by the NHC, and is reforming to the NW of the former low, at the tail-end of the weak upper low. Meanwhile will TD "5" form in the Carib Sea? Will we have one storm heading to the Gulf, and another towardt the Outer Banks? What will Joe Bastardi say??? - HLG

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Heading for Earth!

The sun is getting active as we head toward solar max, during the end of the Mayan calendar in 2012. Coincidence? The current CME is heading straight for Earth, and should hit in waves today. Look for aurora at low latitudes, and possible communication disruptions to all you DirectTV fans! - HLG

By Martin Finucane

If you're driving in the wee hours of Wednesday or Thursday morning and you see beautiful red and green curtains waving against the sky, there's no need to check your eyesight or your sanity.

Scientists say the Northern Lights may be visible in areas farther south than they are normally, due to eruptions on the surface of the sun.

Early Sunday morning, the eruptions blasted plasma, or ionized atoms, into space and it began traveling towards Earth at about a million miles per hour, according to experts from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

When the plasma from the "coronal mass ejection" reaches Earth, it will interact with our planet's magnetic field, potentially creating a geomagnetic storm in which solar particles collide with nitrogen and oxygen atoms and glow like neon signs, the scientists said.

Normally, such light shows are seen only in higher latitudes, where they are called the Northern Lights, or aurora borealis, but during a geomagenetic storm aurorae can light up the sky at lower latitudes. The experts said sky watchers should look to the north to see the phenomenon.

The latest estimates are that the plasma will arrive in four waves, one at 3 a.m. Wednesday, one at 1 p.m. Wednesday, one at 8 p.m. Wednesday, and one at 2 a.m. Thursday, said David Aguilar, a spokesman for the Harvard-Smithsonian center.

There is a three-hour window of uncertainty both before and after those target times, he said, because the speed of the waves is not constant.

"They're like giant hurricanes. They're large and fuzzy and they're moving along. They're not like railroad trains in Europe that run on time," he said.

He said the first wave was the most powerful, but depending on the earth's magnetic field, any of the four waves could produce a spectacular light show.

The aurorae will likely not be visible during the daylight hours or to city residents, so those who want to see them would do best to get away from urban light pollution and plan to stay up late.

Besides the potential for causing the northern lights, this solar event signals that after a long quiet spell, the sun may be returning to a heightened period of activity, the Globe reports today.

Models Show "Colin" Will be Fish Storm?

All except for persistance, and the CMC model. Anyone know what gives with CMC? I am going on vacation to the Jersey shore next week, and need to know! - HLG

TD "4" or TS "Colin"?

Looks like at LEAST 4 to me, and probably would rate TS "COLIN" status, IF we had scatterometry in the USA. - HLG