NOAA Still Predicting Significantly Above Average Hurricane Totals for 2010

But since it is mid-August, and we have had nothing but crap so far, why not?

I still predict LeBron will be with the Cavs next year! - HLG

Updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary August 5th, 2010

NOAA’s updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 90% chance of an above normal season. There is only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and no expectation the season will be below normal. Therefore, 2010 is expected to become the eleventh above-normal season since 1995. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region (or basin) includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions now in place over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are very conducive to hurricane formation, as was predicted in NOAA’s pre-season outlook issued in May. These conditions are expected to persist throughout the peak months (August-October) of the Atlantic hurricane season, in association with three climate factors; the tropical multi-decadal signal, La Niña, and very warm temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. In addition, dynamical model forecasts tropical cyclone activity continue to predict a very active season.

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal (June-November) ranges of activity during 2010. These ranges are consistent with NOAA’s May outlook, and reiterate a high likelihood of a very active season (i.e. hyperactive, defined by ACE ? 175% of median), perhaps one of the more active on record.

14-20 Named Storms,
8-12 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 170%-260% of the median.
The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in about 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

These ranges include the two tropical storms and one hurricane seen to date. During June – July 2010, two named storms (Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie) formed in the Atlantic basin. The pre-season outlook issued in late May reflected the possibility of even more early-season activity. As a result, the upper ends of the predicted ranges have been reduced.

Nonetheless, significant activity is predicted for the remainder of the season, with an additional 12-17 named storms, of which 7-11 are expected to become hurricanes with 4-6 reaching major hurricane status.

Any region or community can experience a devastating hurricane regardless of the overall seasonal activity. However, during hyperactive seasons, the historical probability for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply. Therefore, it is even more imperative for this season that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have an effective hurricane preparedness plan in place.

NOAA does not make an official seasonal landfall outlook. Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a specific locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.