The new track is truly odd. The push the storm further west early in the track, but then a sharp turn around 72 hours. Hmmmm. This could be a doozy if it does track further west, hits the Outter Banks, and then straight up the Delmarva towards Long Island. Oh my!
Here is the exact "explanation" from the NHC:
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
3 comments:
"Earl will start to turn Northwestward in the next 24 hours".
"Really, Earl is going to turn".
"We're serious, Earl is really, really going to turn".
"Watch, it's going to happen now"
6 days later ...
"See, we told you Earl was going to turn ... we're good!!!"
And my favorite ... "THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5" which translated into layman's terms means ... "we really f'd up this forecast and we're trying to cover our butts".
Thank you to the boys at the NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC/XYZ for such great work.
Guess I should see how close they really have been to verifying.
No sign of the ridge breaking down here on the east coast. Dew points still in the 50s, completely clear all day. I think this is a razor thin call whether Earl will hardly bother a soul, or just rake the entire coast from Hatteras up. Watch Joe Bastardi's forecast on Accuweather. He is clearly very concerned and is leaning to a coastal nightmare.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
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