Will Solar Region 1302 Disrupt Earth's Satellites and Power Grids?

Sunspot 1302 Continues to Turn Toward Earth- UPDATED09.27.11 Geomagnetic Storm Subsiding "Almost as soon as it was dark we were seeing vertical columns of light extending high into the sky, with the ever-present green color, but also lots of red color!" said Travis Novitsky of Grand Portage, Northeastern Minnesota, of this image he took on Sept. 26. Image Courtesy of Travis Novitsky. UPDATE 09.27.11 - The severe geomagnetic storm (Kp=7-8) that began yesterday when a CME hit Earth's magnetic field is subsiding. At the peak of the disturbance, auroras were sighted around both poles and in more than five US states including Michigan, New York, South Dakota, Maine, and Minnesota. Every three hours throughout the day, magnetic observatories around the world measure the largest magnetic change that their instruments recorded during that period. The result is averaged together with those of the other observatories to produce an index (Kp index) that tells scientists how disturbed the Earth's magnetic field is on a 9-point scale. Credit: NOAA UPDATE 09.26.11 - A strong-to-severe (Kp=8) geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at approximately 8:15a.m. EDT (12:15 UT) on Sept. 26. The Goddard Space Weather Lab reported a strong compression of Earth's magnetosphere. Simulations indicate that solar wind plasma has penetrated close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 9am. Geosynchronous satellites could therefore be directly exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic fields. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after nightfall.

Sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares (X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th). Each of the dark cores in this image from SDO is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot's magnetic field is currently crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into larger eruptions as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth. Credit: NASA/SDO/HMI › View zoom larger › View full disk image Behemoth sunspot 1302 unleashed another strong flare on Saturday morning--an X1.9-category blast at 5:40 am EDT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash. The movie (above) also shows a shadowy shock wave racing away from the blast site. This is a sign that the blast produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) that could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 26. Since the X1.9-flare, active region (AR) 1302 has unleashed M8.6 and M7.4 flares on Sept. 24 and an M8.8 flare early on Sept. 25. None of the blasts have been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. AR1302 is growing and shows no immediate signs of quieting down. Updates will be posted as warranted. What is a solar flare? What is a coronal mass ejection? For answers to these and other space weather questions, please visit the Spaceweather Frequently Asked Questions page.

Why do some typhoons have two names?

Regardless, this one is bad new for Luzon, which is still recovering from one last weekend. - HLG Quiel to hit Northern Luzon on Saturday 09/30/2011 | 12:58 AM Tropical cyclone “Quiel" (Nalgae) is expected to hit Northern Luzon this Saturday, as forecast by both Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In PAGASA’s 11 pm bulletin issued on Thursday, Quiel’s center was spotted at 950 km east of Aparri, Cagayan 10 pm, moving eastward at 17 kph with maximum sustained winds at 110 kph near the center with gustiness of up to 140 kph. The storm’s diameter or span is 300 km. By Saturday evening it is expected to be 130 km from Aparri, Cagayan – which means the storm’s edges would then have hit land. Since in PAGASA’s forecast, Quiel’s maximum sustained winds has not yet reached nor exceeded 118 kph, the cyclone is still considered just a tropical storm and not yet a typhoon. Highlights of PAGASA 10 p.m. data in 11 p.m. bulletin on "QUIEL" Location: 950 km East of Aparri, Cagayan Wind speed: 110 kph Gust: 140 kph Movement: 17 kph Direction: West Rainfall volume: 15-25 mm per hour Diameter: 300 km Forecast Position: - Sept. 30 (Friday evening) - 590 km East Southeast of Appari, Cagayan - Oct. 1 (Saturday evening) - 130 km East Southeast of Appari, Cagayan - Oct. 2 (Sunday evening) - 370 km East km of Appari, Cagayan From GMA News

Another Satellite Forecast to Precipitate to Earth

In the ongoing efforts here at FWSAAB to keep our loyal readers (yes, both of you) informed on the latest trends in meteorology, we are proud to announce a new series. This series promises to keep you informed on the forecast for satellites falling out of the sky, and possibly on your head. After the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell this month, the news broke that the German x-ray satellite, ROSAT will fall in an uncontrolled tumble, some time in November. So, stay tuned to FWSAAB, as we are in constant communications with Space Command out in Colorado to keep our loyal readers aware of what might fall on their head from the sky. - HLG Another Dead Satellite to Crash Land in November By Denise Chow Published September 29, 2011 | Space.com Print Email Share Comments German Aerospace Center A defunct NASA satellite that fell to Earth last week sparked some worldwide buzz, but it's not the only spacecraft falling out of space. The decommissioned German X-ray space observatory, called the Roentgen Satellite or ROSAT, will tumble to Earth sometime in early November, but it's still too early to pinpoint exactly when and where debris from the satellite will land, according to officials at the German Aerospace Center. The 2.4-ton spacecraft's orbit extends from the latitudes of 53 degrees north and south, which means the satellite could fall anywhere over a huge swath of the planet — stretching from Canada to South America, German Aerospace officials said. [6 Biggest Uncontrolled Spacecraft Falls From Space] The latest estimates suggest that up to 30 large pieces of the satellite could survive the intense and scorching journey through Earth's atmosphere. In all, about 1.6 tons of the satellite components could reach the surface of the Earth, according to German Aerospace officials. The re-entry will be similar to NASA's 6-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), which plunged into the southern Pacific Ocean on Saturday (Sept. 24). ROSAT coming home In 1998, ROSAT's star tracker failed, which caused its onboard camera to be pointed directly at the sun. The event permanently damaged the spacecraft and ROSAT was officially decommissioned in February 1999. Scientists are actively tracking the dead satellite, but many of the details will remain uncertain until roughly two hours before it hits Earth. "It is not possible to accurately predict ROSAT's re-entry," Heiner Klinkrad, head of the Space Debris Office at the European Space Agency, said in a webcast posted on the German Aerospace Center's website. "The uncertainty will decrease as the moment of re-entry approaches. It will not be possible to make any kind of reliable forecast about where the satellite will actually come down until about one or two hours before the fact." It will, however, be possible to rule out certain geographical regions from the potential drop zone about a day in advance, Klinkrad said. The largest piece of debris is expected to be the telescope's heat resistant mirror. "Generally speaking, whenever a satellite re-enters the atmosphere, about 20 to 40 percent of its mass actually reaches the Earth’s surface," Klinkrad said. "In the case of ROSAT, this figure could be slightly higher because one of its characteristic features is that it carries heat-resistant mirror structures on board." [Related: Falling Satellites & Space Junk: Q&A with Orbital Debris Expert] Small risk to public Fragments from ROSAT could fall back to Earth over a 50-mile (80-kilometer) wide path, but despite the uncontrolled nature of ROSAT's re-entry, the odds of personal injury or property damage are extremely remote, German Aerospace officials said. When NASA's UARS satellite fell to Earth, for example, NASA said the chances of parts of the spacecraft striking any one of the nearly seven billion people on the planet were about 1 in 3,200. The actual personal risk of being hit for an individual person, however, was about 1 in several trillion, NASA officials said. To date, there have been no reported serious injuries or casualties from falling space debris, NASA scientists have said.

Angry Tourists in Hong Kong. Oh my!

Typhoon Nesat hits HK, markets closed Share this Email By Kelvin Soh HONG KONG | Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:35am EDT (Reuters) - A typhoon swept past Hong Kong on Thursday, closing markets, schools and most businesses in one of Asia's most important financial centers. The stock market, government offices and schools will remain closed for the rest of the day as Typhoon Nesat makes its way past Hong Kong en route to south China, after crossing the Philippines where it left at least 35 dead and 45 missing. "Gale winds persist over parts of Hong Kong in particular over the southwestern part of the territory," the observatory said in a statement. "With Nesat moving away from Hong Kong, the local winds show sign of weakening." No deaths were reported in Hong Kong, but local television showed footage of at least two people who were hospitalized after being hit by falling debris as a result of strong winds. The Hong Kong Observatory's No.8 typhoon warning signal will remain in effect for most of the day, it said on its website, prompting financial markets to be closed all day. Hong Kong has a series of different typhoon warnings. Schools, businesses and government services stop when any No.8 or above typhoon warning is hoisted. The weather service will consider downgrading the warning as winds subside, it said. As of 0545 GMT, Nesat was centered about 390 kilometers (240 miles) southwest of Hong Kong, which saw winds of up to 121 kilometers per hour. The tropical cyclone on Tuesday hit the Philippines, where it also caused an estimated 1.1 billion pesos ($25 million) in crop and infrastructure damage. Several window panes from the headquarters of Hang Seng Bank (0011.HK) in the business district fell, but no one was injured. "The streets are empty and all the shops are closed," said Sharon Guan, a tourist who was waiting for her ferry at the China Ferry Terminal. "It's so unusual to see Hong Kong so deserted at this hour." Tropical cyclones regularly hit Hong Kong, the Philippines and other coastal regions of south China in summer and early in autumn. EMPTY STREETS, ANGRY TOURISTS A ship weighing 1,677 deadweight metric tons ran aground in the early hours of Thursday morning, but there were no injuries, the Hong Kong Marine Department said. Nearly 20 shelters were also set up around Hong Kong, while the government canceled public events, including the daily flag raising ceremony at the city's Victoria Harbor. Usually crowded streets were devoid of people as its iconic tram system stopped operations and the subway and bus systems cut trips. Trees fallen by strong winds blocked some roads, while taxis still plying the roads asked for extra fare. Hong Kong's dominant airline Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) said all its flights to and from the city were operating as normal. The Hong Kong International Airport's website showed at least 40 departing flights were delayed or canceled. Ferry terminals that link Hong Kong to Macau, south China and outlying islands were also closed. Angry tourists gathered at the Hong Kong-Macau ferry terminal next to the city's business district, with some waiting in despair and others crowding around ticket counters demanding their money back. "We all thought we would have a good time in Hong Kong, but it's been a disaster," said one tourist who gave her name as Huang. "All they want is to take our money, but when there is trouble, they disappear." Neighboring Macau was also affected, with schools and businesses at the former Portuguese colony closed. But the city's glittering casinos, including the Venetian Macau and the Wynn Macau, remained open for tourists who managed to make their way there. ($1 = 43.460 Philippine Pesos)

More Bad New for the Phillipines

I am not sure I have ever seen a typhoon track that was forecast to be due west (or any other direction) for so long as this one, but either way, not good news for the Phillipines, which is going to see two typhoons in a week over Luzon. Build the ark! - HLG

Koppen Geiger Climate Shifts Mapped On-line

As a geographer religion, I have always been partial to the Von-Koppen climate classification schemes, and this map service from ESRI was a pleasure for me to see, because I wanted to do something like this as a grad-school project (a long, long time ago), but the technology just wasn't there. The authors have taken historical and modeled climate data, mapped it in the modified Koppen-Geiger system, and put it in an on-line map service hosted by ESRI. Make sure to press the little time slider to watch the decades slip by, and what the models portend for the future. - HLG http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=0b9f1f90f4f745daacbc35599609b59a

Typhoon "Nesat" after Devastating the Phillipines

Many dozens killed, and thousands homeless in the Phillipine Islands from Typhoon Nesat, seen here as it spins over the South China Sea, on it's way to northern Vietnam. Not a very strong system in the core, but a large rain-maker for sure. This has been a theme in the northwestern Pacific this season. - HLG

What a "purdy" storm!

Large upper level cyclone over the central US made a nice photo-op for MODIS this week. HLG

One, Two, Three Punch for Indochina, and SE China

The third tropical cyclone in a row has formed in the western Pacific, and is forecast to take a nearly identical track to the first two. The middle storm "Nesat" has killed dozens in the Phillipines, and the news can't be good for northern Vietnam, and the southern provinces of China, which have already had severe flooding the past few weeks. - HLG

Amazing Gravity Waves in Sahara Dust Storm

The dust storm coming off west Africa, in late September of 2011 showed amazing gravity wave patterns, amid very thick bands of dust and sand.

NASA Warns People NOT to "Steal" Satellite Parts!

NASA's 6-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is expected to fall back to Earth late tonight or early Saturday (Sept. 23 or Sept. 24 EDT), raining more than two dozen large chunks of debris on the surface. But don't even think about keeping a piece for yourself. Should the public find parts from the satellite where they fell or, since current projections suggest an ocean splashdown is more likely, after being washed ashore, NASA is warning people to stay away for both safety and legal concerns. "If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance," NASA wrote on its website two weeks ago after it became evident that UARS's fall was approaching.

FAA Warns Pilots to Watch Out for Falling Satellite!

The Federal Aviation Administration issued an alert to pilots today warning flyers to be on the lookout for any signs of a huge NASA satellite expected to fall to Earth tonight (Sept. 23) or early tomorrow. FAA officials released the special notice after NASA refined its estimates for the re-entry time of its Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), a 20-year-old climate satellite the size of a school bus that will fall from space sometime in the next 18 hours.

Probing the Madden-Julian Oscillation (What would Fat Albert Gore say?)

Scientists probe Indian Ocean for clues to worldwide weather patterns September 22, 2011 BOULDER—An international team of researchers will begin gathering in the Indian Ocean next month to study how tropical weather brews there and then moves eastward along the equator with reverberating effects around the entire globe. They will use a vast array of tools ranging from aircraft and ships to moorings, radars, and numerical models. NCAR’s S-PolKa radar will be one of the key tools used in DYNAMO. (©UCAR, Photo by Carlye Calvin. This image is freely available for media use. For more information, see Media & nonprofit use.*) The six-month field campaign, known as DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation), will help improve long-range weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks, and enable scientists to further refine computer models of global climate. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is providing major observing tools to the science team and helping to oversee operations and data management for the project. DYNAMO is organized internationally as the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY2011), which is led by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. The overriding goal of the DYNAMO field campaign is to better understand a disturbance of the tropics known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. This disturbance, which originates in the equatorial Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is part of the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño, along with other impacts on weather and climate patterns around the globe. Scientists believe that the MJO is the world’s greatest source of atmospheric variability in a one- to three-month time frame. “The Madden-Julian Oscillation has a huge impact all over the globe,” says DYNAMO chief scientist Chidong Zhang of the University of Miami. “It connects weather and climate, and it is important to forecasting both of them.” “The MJO drives weather in both hemispheres even though it sits along the equator,” says NCAR’s Jim Moore, director of the DYNAMO project office. “Its origins have never been measured in such a systematic fashion before.” DYNAMO, the Littoral Air-Sea Processes (LASP), and the ARM MJO Investigation Experiment (AMIE) are the three U.S. projects contributing to CINDY 2011. DYNAMO, LASP, and AMIE are jointly supported by several United States agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF), Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Naval Research (ONR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Staff, facilities, and observations for the international collaborative effort are being provided by 16 countries: Australia, China, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Korea, the Maldives, Papua New Guinea, Seychelles, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. U.S. scientists, students, engineers, and staff from 16 universities and 11 national laboratories and centers are participating in the field campaign. The project “Super Site” on Addu Atoll in the Maldives will host the major radar array. Other observation sites will be based on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea and on Diego Garcia atoll, as well as aboard research ships and aircraft in the Indian Ocean. The AMIE project provides continuous observations on Addu Atoll and Manus for the six-month period. “The entire international program encompasses a vast expanse of the Indian Ocean on both sides of the equator and into the equatorial western Pacific, providing scientists a chance to measure the pulse of the whole life cycle of the MJO,” says AMIE principal investigator Chuck Long of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. From the tropics to the United States The MJO plays a key role in driving tropical weather and climate variations during all seasons of the year. It also interacts with other atmospheric patterns, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation that can shape weather and climate patterns across much of the globe. This illustration shows a moment in the evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a complex process involving sea surface temperatures and their influence on atmospheric processes. (©UCAR. Illustration by Lex Ivey. This image is freely available for media use. For more information, see Media & nonprofit use.*) Scientists need to better understand the MJO, both to improve long-range weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks worldwide and perhaps make the leap to longer-term forecasts of climate that may extend years into the future. In winter, for example, the onset of an MJO can set off atmospheric waves that travel across the globe and, about 10 days later, influence the location and severity of major storms on the west coast of North America, some of which cause significant flooding. “If you can find out how an MJO event starts, you may get a couple of weeks warning about wintertime storms in the United States, “ says NCAR scientist Mitchell Moncrieff, a member of the DYNAMO Science Steering Committee. At present, the computer models that scientists use to study global weather and climate fail to capture the MJO very well. The information from the field campaign could lead to significant improvements to the models. As global climate changes, it is becoming more important to understand how the atmosphere and oceans interact to regulate Earth’s temperature and respond to long-term variation. Field projects such as DYNAMO and AMIE, with an emphasis on basic research, add to scientists’ growing body of knowledge about the many interconnected components of Earth’s complex climate system. “The long-term applications and implications of the data that come from this international field campaign could be profound in terms of our understanding of weather, climate and climate change,” NCAR’s Moore says. “It’s our first chance to do a large, in-depth field campaign in the Indian Ocean," says Eric DeWeaver, program director in NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences "This is a rare occasion when many countries pool their scientific resources to look at a phenomenon that's of tremendous interest to everyone. The precipitation pattern over the Indian Ocean can influence weather and climate as far away as the USA, including the number of hurricanes that form in the Gulf of Mexico." An array of instruments The DYNAMO field campaign brings a considerable array of instruments to bear on the MJO, including two research aircraft provided by NOAA and the French Airborne Environment Research Service; four ships from the United States, India, Indonesia and Japan; a half-dozen meteorological radars; balloon sounding units; moored buoys; and a suite of other instruments. Especially critical during the field campaign are radars, which provide information about the microphysics inside clouds and rainstorms that lead to the development of the MJO. At the project super site on Addu Atoll, a meteorological radar array with seven different frequencies will be used to scan the MJO as it moves through the region. The array includes NCAR’s S-PolKa, a dual-wavelength Doppler radar that can distinguish the sizes and shapes of precipitation particles and even observe the water vapor from which the clouds form, thereby shedding light on the development of clouds and rainfall. It also includes a C-band radar from Texas A&M University that can estimate rainfall and latent heating. In addition, the site includes a suite of radars in a mobile facility of AMIE that detect different types of clouds. “DYNAMO and AMIE mark the first time in the modern era that we’ll be able to use remote sensing techniques, particularly radar, to measure atmospheric phenomena from individual cloud droplets to large raindrops,” Moore says. “We have instrument capabilities for this project that we didn’t even have 10 or 15 years ago.” In addition to measuring the sky, the researchers will also turn their attention to the sea. The physical properties of the ocean, such as temperature and salinity, are as important to the MJO as are the properties of the atmosphere. A collection of ocean sensors, deployed from ships and moorings in the open seas, will collect data on ocean-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric and ocean data will be fed into computer models to study the initiation and propagation of the MJO. About 50 scientists and technicians from NCAR are involved in DYNAMO. In addition to deploying the S-PolKa radar, NCAR is supporting the project by providing sounding systems that measure standard weather variables, hosting the project’s logistics and planning office, and handling data management, which includes creating a real-time, online field catalog and long-term data archive. The U.S. researchers are collaborating heavily with their Maldivian hosts. The Maldives Meteorological Service is providing local weather knowledge, meeting and operations space and facilities. The researchers in turn will offer training on radar and other instrumentation to local meteorologists. A DYNAMO and AMIE media day and opening ceremony will take place on Addu Atoll at the beginning of the field campaign. Other outreach activities with local schools and organizations will be incorporated into the project during the entire deployment period.

Warning Earthlings: The Sky IS Falling

Track NASA's Falling, 6.5-Ton Satellite in Real-Time Published September 21, 2011 | Print Email Share Comments NASA An artist's concept of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) satellite in space. The 6 1/2-ton satellite was deployed from space shuttle Discovery in 1991 and decommissioned in December 2005. In a matter of days, the sky will actually be falling. A defunct NASA atmosphere-monitoring satellite the size of a small bus is set to plunge to Earth somewhere between Thursday and Saturday -- and the space agency's scientists say there's no way to precisely determine where it will crash, be it Africa or America, the Pacific Ocean or Pacific Heights. But thanks to a neat widget built exclusively for FoxNews.com by the satellite-tracking website N2YO.com, you can watch the UARS satellite as it courses through the heavens. Pinpointing where and when hurtling space debris will strike is an imprecise science. To calculate the orbit, N2YO.com runs information from the U.S. Air Force Space Command through a series of algorithms, and overlays it on mapping data from Google. For now, scientists predict the earliest it will hit is Thursday U.S. time, the latest Saturday. The strike zone covers most of Earth. (Anywhere between 57 N and 57 S latitude).

Awesome Video of One Orbit on the ISS

This video is made from hundreds of images taken at night, on the "bow" of the ISS, as it sails around the Earth. You gotta love the lightning-storms. - HLG

Ophelia going to Caribbean or East Coast?

Looks like a big split in the models, but regardless satellite loops show

a large cyclone is spinning already. Intensity models on the low side? - HLG

"Roke" Bearing Down on Tokyo Metro

Japan just can't get a break this year.

Typhoon "Roke" Heads to Tokyo

Bad news for Japan in this diaster prone year there. Roke, which was stalled SW of Japan last week, had very poor organization, was forecast to become only a TS, and move east of Japan. Wrong! It exploded into a tight-litle 100 kt storm, and is headed directly for Tokyo, with most of the metro area on the strong side of this compact little menace. Oh no! - HLG

The Storm Chasers are Pacific Coast Champs! (We should adopt them)

Roke and Sanca

Apparently TS Roke is going to race to the NE, after a multi-day stall. Good thing since it was strengthening this weekend.

Amazing image of Roke and Sanca, sitting on nearly the same latitude, with very similar structures, small and weak for the northwest Pacific in the tropics. - HLG

Creepy Weather Dudes

Here at FWSAAB we continue to scour the global inbterweb for key weather related events. In new series we would like to focus your attention on stories of CREEPY WEATHER DUDES!

Weatherman Found With Dead Man in Tub
Brett Cummins, a meteorologist at a news station in Arkansas since 2001, was questioned by police Monday after he awoke in an empty bath tub with the corpse of a dead man wearing a dog collar. When Cummins awoke, he ran out of the bathroom screaming and vomited on the carpet, according to another man who was at the apartment. Christopher Barbour, who lived at the house of the incident, said he, Cummins, and the dead man had partied and used narcotics the night before. Cummins was released after speaking with police.
Read it at MediaBistro

Tropical Weirdness Continues

The odd tracks continue this hurricane season. First it appear that the most populated part of Newfoundland, near St John's, will take a direct, real-deal, hurricane hit. Not many of those in the reliable record.

On the other side of the world, Hokie-Roke's path continues at a near snails pace, with a huge, circular error-cone near heavily populated Shanghai, and the southern Korean Peninsula. Looking forward to the end of this tropical season, with all it's weirdness. Of course it is only beginning for the upside-down people in the Southern Hemisphere! - HLG (Fully biased to the Northern Hemisphere)

JTWC Continues to Insist "Roke" is Tropical

Looks awfully sub-quasi-semi-non-tropical thingy to this observer. Hope that wasn't too technical of an analysis. -HLG

Hokey-Pokey "Roke"

The actual track, and never-mind the forecast for "Roke", has been very hokey! All weekend the tracks had it turning NE to the Korean peninsula, today it is forecast to go SW. Help! HLG

Pyro-Cumulus in Minnesota

At least that is what NASA called it. Hard to argue with the large fire at the base. - HLG

KATIA VISITS THE UK

Hurricane Katia is making her way to the United Kingdom - quite the trip around the Atlantic for her.

BB

Big Split in Models on TS "Nate"

Will Nate turn west, or due north? There appear to be two distinct maps in the models. The recon plane did find the storm to be a little stronger than predicted. Stay tuned. If Nate follows similar track, then up the east coast, that Lee did, with the current prediction on Maria following very similar to Irene's track, at the very least the NE US is in for a very, very wet time. - HLG

Kulap for Chuseok, oh my!

Looks like it is going to be a wet Chuseok in Korea. (Never thought I would utter THAT sentance). -HLG

Chuseok (Korean: 추석), originally known as Hangawi (한가위, from archaic Korean for "great middle"), is a major harvest festival and a three-day holiday in Korea celebrated on the 15th day of the 8th month of the lunar calendar. Like many other harvest festivals, it is held around the Autumn Equinox. As a celebration of the good harvest, Koreans visit their ancestral hometowns and share a feast of Korean traditional food such as songpyeon and rice wines such as sindoju and dongdongju.

Go NOAA... Go NOAA... Go NOAA!

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
200 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...NOAA BUOY INDICATES KATIA IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

Last Space Shuttle Return from Space Station

Incredible photo take from the ISS showing the ion-trail in the atmosphere from the final space shuttle as it headed to Earth. - HLG

Katia from Modis

"Katia" as Major Hurricane, and The Great Texas Desert

The Texas Outback continues to burn, and is amazingly brown all over the state. Katia was compact and very strong in this image from MODIS yesterday. - HLG

Tropical Storm "Talas" Death Toll Rising

Dozens dead, and many dozens more missing...


Typhoon Talas: Japan searches for missing dozens
Hundreds of thousands of people were told to evacuate

Japanese rescue teams have resumed the search for dozens of people missing after powerful Typhoon Talas ripped through the west of the country.

At least 26 people have died after the storm triggered floods and landslides after making landfall on Shikoku island on Saturday.

More than 50 people are believed to be missing, according to local media.

Japan is hit by several typhoons each year, but Talas is the most destructive since 2004.

Japan's new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who was sworn in on Friday, promised rescue efforts would continue.

"We will do our best in saving lives and finding the missing," Mr Noda told reporters early on Monday.

The government has set up an emergency task force to co-ordinate the rescue effort.

Mr Noda replaced Naoto Kan, who was heavily criticised for Japan's response in the aftermath of an earthquake and tsunami on 11 March which killed thousands.

The BBC's Roland Buerk in Toyko says villages have been cut off and the bad weather in the mountains has made reaching them by helicopter impossible.

Evacuation orders and advisories were issued to 460,000 people as the typhoon swept through the region, dumping heavy rain and bringing winds of up to 108km/h (68mph) on Sunday.

Entire villages have been flooded and bridges and houses destroyed.

In Wakayama prefecture, one landslide buried three homes, killing one woman and leaving four others missing. A 14-year-old girl was rescued from the debris.

In nearby Nara prefecture, seven people were reported missing after their homes were swept down a river, AP cited public broadcaster NHK as reporting.

Talas has now moved over Japan and into the Sea of Japan (East Sea), Japan's Meteorological Agency said on Sunday.

But it warned that heavy rains and strong winds would continue - raising the threat of floods and landslides.

Won't this energy combine somewhere to the Northeast?

One TD heading NE, one Hurricane heading NW, all expected to rapidly converge with a cool-front. Where will this energy combine? New England? Maritimes? Do you have internet in the bathroom Dr BB? - HLG

PERPETUAL TORNADO WARNINGS

 

 South Mississippi's been under a Tornado Warning since 10:00 am yesterday morning.  Geeky

Girl and Larster have taken to Blue MargaLeeta's to overcome their despair.   BB just sits in

the bathroom wishing Lee would go away.  No word from Klingfree who lives happily in

Neverland Mississippi.

(This eye-witness report filed by BB - two letters you can trust)

Hurricane Hunters Data App for Google Earth

Plot from the new Google Earth tool to plot the data from Hurricane Hunter flights. This shows data from today's flight into TS Lee. - HLG

Tropical Storm Warning, but no Hurricane Watch?

With TS Lee so close to the coast, and the forecast to make it a very strong tropical storm in few days, shouldn't there be a hurricane watch put up as precaution? We have see how good the intensification models are recently, and this is very close. Too close to call? - HLG

EGAD!!!

"Thar's a hole in the bucket - dear Liza dear Liza."

Drown'n BB

Too Soon to "Bury" Katia with the Fishes?

I have heard several pop TV weather "forecasters" claim that Katia shouldn't threaten the east coast. Not sure where they are getting this, since the tail end of a group of models is pushing if further west before recurving. Looking at the track in Google Earth, compared to Irene, it is not much further north at this point, than Irene was, but is better organized. Stay tuned weather watchers! - HLG

Will Northern Gulf Coast get One or Two?

Feet of rain that is! The models for precip totals are off the chart for this one. Should be lots of regional flooding from this one. Biggest rain totals in NOLA since Katrina? - HLG

Tropical Variety Show

Tropical Storm "Talas" in the West Pac continues to show a very unusual structure. From day-one it has had a very large, very dry core feature, as you can see in this MODIS image. It almost seems to be an extra-tropical/tropical storm. If that is possible! - HLG