Sunday, December 28, 2008

Blizzard in Louisville This Week?

Hello Weather Geeks,

I am in Louisville and need a critical forecast. I have two children I need to fly to Gulfport by "stand-by", but that is a long story. The NWS is putting out hints that they are expecting a "major winter weather event" before the weekend. This also appears to be a very dynamic scenario that may be hard to predict. What do you think about travel? Get out before Thursday (LOU to GPT), or wait until after the weekend?

Also, interesting weather trivia. We had 54 mph winds last night, and Louisville was under it's 5th "High Wind Warning", which was an all-time record for one month. Records here go way back to the Civil War, though I don't think the did "High Wind Warnings" then. Did they?

-HLG in LOUKY

TC "BILLY"


I thought this was a very nice image of a strong TC in the Indian Ocean.

No Tropical Cyclones here in Kentucky, but we did drop almost 40 degrees in temp since midnight. Brrrrrr.

- HLG

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Freakishly Low Tides in Ponchartrain and Surrounding Marshes

Atmospheric conditions leading to strange tide levels
Posted by Bob Marshall, The Times-Picayune December 15, 2008 3:21PM

One recent morning charter skipper Dudley Vandenborre was preparing for a fishing trip when he got a shock: Lake Pontchartrain was gone.

Well, not completely. But close enough to stun a man who has been fishing the lake for more than 50 years.


"I was lowering the boat (on the slings) at the dock, I really didn't think the boat would reach the water -- that's how low the tide was," Vandenborre recalled. "I had two or three turns of the pipe left before it finally began to float. We've been on this canal for 20 years, and that has never happened before. Ever.

"No one has ever seen the water this low. That's what everyone is talking about."

For three weeks extremely low tides have been the talk -- and complaint -- among anglers across the southeastern marsh. And these aren't your average weekend whiners, but men who make their living on the water. From Venice to Leeville, Lafitte to Delacroix, veteran marshmen are calling this the lowest water in memory.

So (to steal an expression from the late By HEK) "Who pulled the plug?"

"A combination of events happening at the same time -- or the wrong time, depending on your perspective," said Capt. Paul Titus, the man who compiles the Tides Tables for the Fishin' Fridays page in The Times-Picayune. Those events, in order of occurrence:

-- In mid-January we entered an annual period of extremely low tides in the northern Gulf of Mexico which runs roughly through mid-January. During these weeks, Titus said, the mean low tide averages almost a foot lower than normal which, in turn, makes the average high tide well below normal. (Conversely, annual periods of extremely high tides occur from mid-May through mid-June).

-- November also is the month when winter cool fronts begin blowing through, typically arriving on stiff northwesterly winds. Because our coast is a large, shallow bowl, these winds push even more water out of our marshes.

-- In a typical fall, cold fronts are preceded by stiff southerly winds pulled from the Gulf by the approaching pressure ridge, an event that can bring water back into the marsh. One such front came through Wednesday and Thursday and, sure enough, stiff southerly flow moved water in from the Gulf, and the tides shot up.

But most of this season has been a little different. A big norther the third week of November was followed by a series of smaller, dry cold fronts that produced little southerly flow.

"So, a few weeks back, we were already in this low-tidal period when we get that first big front," Titus said. "The water went out on that blow, but for a few weeks it never came back in because we never really had any thing coming from the south."

It was during that two-week period that anglers thought a historic natural event was under way.

How low did it get?

"I've seen the bottom of some ponds and bays that I've never seen before," said Mike Frenette of Venice-based Teaser Charters.

And in Hopedale, Capt. Glen Sanchez and friends were on a rescue mission for standard trout.

"That canal that follows the road down here was filled with baby trout that were trapped by the low water," Sanchez said. "Some guys went down there with landing nets and were scooping them up, crossing the road and dropping them into Bayou la Loutre. They saved hundreds of them.

"I can tell you I've never seen that happen before. "

And, of course, dozens of anglers were stuck on mud flats they never knew existed.

"Oh, we were getting calls," Sanchez said. "Guys were running across bays and lakes that always had enough water, and found themselves stuck. They just weren't prepared for this."

That lack of preparation, Titus said, rests partly with the systems available to present tide tables to the public. Unfortunately for anglers and other boaters, there is no official way to mark the arrival of the annual below-average tide period. That makes the range listings on the daily tide tables during the period a trap for anglers unaware of the event.

"When a guy sees the range is, say, 1.5 feet for a day during this period, he might be expecting the water to come up one-and-a-half feet -- but that won't happen because you're starting that 1.5 feet from a deficit," Titus said.

"So, before you go fishing during this period, you've got to take into account that everything is going to be lower. And that's before you even begin to factor in the effects wind will have on water levels in our shallow estuaries."

It also means you need to boat with caution even in familiar locations, carry a push pole and make sure your marine radio or cell phone is in good working order.

You might also carry a pair of chest-high waders, just in case stepping out of the boat to push becomes necessary.

That's what happens when someone pulls the plug in mid-November

Global Warming Causing Chaos in California! - HLG

Frigid Storm Closes California Freeways, Drops Snow in Malibu
Thursday, December 18, 2008

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AP/The Sun


Dec. 17: An ambulance rolls over and crashes in the snow in El Mirage, Calif.
Dec. 17: An ambulance rolls over and crashes in the snow in El Mirage, Calif.
LOS ANGELES — Snow snarled major mountain highways and even dusted Malibu on Wednesday as a cold storm hit parts of California. One person was killed by a wind-related helicopter crash, and an overflowing river on the U.S.-Mexico border led to the evacuation of nearly two dozen people, rescues of about 50 horses and the deaths of four others.

Styming thousands of commuters and travelers, snow shut Interstate 15 over 4,190-foot Cajon Pass east of Los Angeles and roads through the San Gabriel Mountains connecting metropolitan Los Angeles to the commuter suburbs of Palmdale and Lancaster in the high desert to the north.

Interstate 5, a major trucking and travel route connecting Southern California with the Central Valley and Northern California, stayed open over 4,144-foot Tejon Pass most of the day, with on-and-off Highway Patrol escorts, then finally was shut down in the afternoon as conditions deteriorated. Massive backups developed below all the passes.



Calen Weiss, 19, of Tarzana, his brother and two friends wanted to go snowboarding at Big Bear in the San Bernardino Mountains but instead got stuck on I-15 in Cajon Pass for an hour as visibility fell to about 40 yards.

"It looks like Whoville, all snowy, but with less joy and more extreme misery," he said by phone from the Summit Inn.

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Winter Storms Grip the Nation Heavy rain also fell in some parts of Southern California through the day.

Near the California-Mexico border, San Diego firefighters and lifeguards evacuated 21 people along the overflowing Tijuana River, said spokesman Maurice Luque. They included 12 to 15 people who were on high ground outside a home, surrounded by up to 4 feet of water.

Five people were taken out by helicopter, while others were escorted in Border Patrol all-terrain vehicles, Luque said. Three men were taken to a hospital for treatment of hypothermia.

About 50 horses also were evacuated, but three others drowned and one was euthanized after tripping on barbed wire, Luque said.

To the east, several vehicles collided and slid into ditches on Interstate 8's mountainous grades as heavy snow fell at the San Diego-Imperial County line. Other vehicles were stuck on the steep upgrade, their wheels spinning on the snow-packed surface, according to the California Highway Patrol.

Blowing snow, slush and ice prompted the Antelope Valley Transit Authority to cancel all its local buses, along with 18 commuter runs that usually carry some 650 people from the Palmdale-Lancaster area down to Los Angeles and back home.

The regional Metrolink rail system agreed to carry bus commuters who had already reached Los Angeles back home, spokesman Francisco Oaxaca said.

However, trains were ordered to proceed slowly because of the snow. Two trains also were delayed around 45 minutes at midday because engineers could not see the red, green and yellow track signals.

It was the first time in his 15 years with Metrolink that snow had caused such problems, Oaxaca said.

Transit agencies in the East have special equipment to clear tracks and otherwise handle snow but "we're not equipped for this kind of weather on a consistent basis in this part of the world," Oaxaca said.

In the Santa Clarita area north of Los Angeles, a wind gust caused a helicopter to crash, killing an electrical worker on the ground and leaving the pilot with minor injuries, county fire Inspector Frank Garrido said.

The helicopter was hired by Southern California Edison to string electrical lines between power poles in the Bouquet Canyon area.

"It was hovering above the ground. A gust of wind made the helicopter spiral," Garrido said.

Garrido said the accident report stated that the dead man was an Edison employee, but utility spokesman Steve Conroy said the victim was employed by the company operating the helicopter.

Late in the afternoon snow fell in the Malibu area.

"It's a combination of snow and rain, so none of the snow is sticking on the ground," said Craig Levy, director of a juvenile detention camp near Mulholland Highway. "It's kind of cool if you think about it. It's kind of unusual to see snow in Malibu."

More severe cold was on the way, the National Weather Service said.

Freeze warnings were issued for late Wednesday through Thursday morning for the Sacramento Valley, the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta region, among others.

"A freeze warning means subfreezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation," the NWS said.

Freeze warnings were also issued for north San Francisco Bay area valleys, and a combination of frost advisories and freeze warnings were issued for parts of southwestern California.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Politically In-Correct BB?


Although Dr BB has the feds investigating our site after making fun of a very common male name in Micronesia (Dolphin, or so I am told), the storm is certainly interesting from a meteorological viewpoint, as well as a xenophobic one!

- HLG

NOTE TO SELF...


... don't name Typhoons after cute marine mammals like dolphins. Might give people the wrong impression.

BB

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Sub-Polar Storm "LARRY" Causes Havoc


Global Warming as seen from space. - HLG

Global Warming Weirdness Update - HLG

Storm leaves at least 1 million without power in Northeast



NEW YORK (CNN) -- The governors of Massachusetts and New Hampshire declared states of emergency Friday after high winds, rain and snow swept through the Northeast, leaving at least a million homes and businesses without power.


iReporter Candy Novoa says she woke up Friday to find a tree branch lying across her neighbor's car.

The National Weather Service said sleet and snow, along with more than half an inch of ice that accumulated on roads in some areas, had made driving treacherous. In Massachusetts, work crews struggled to clear the debris because the powerful storm left roads and bridges covered in ice.

Gov. Deval Patrick told WCVB-TV in Boston it would be optimistic to think power would be restored by Monday.

"This is not going to be a couple of hours," Patrick said. "It's likely to be several days."

Patrick mobilized 500 National Guardsmen to help clear roads, WCVB-TV reported. Utility company National Grid reported that nearly 300,000 homes and businesses in Massachusetts were without power.

Schools were closed across the state, as authorities warned ice-laden branches could snap and down power lines

"This is a serious storm," John Maserjian, a spokesman for Central Hudson Gas & Electric in upstate New York, told CNN. "We have contended with worse storms in past years, but this is among the worst."

Don't Miss
WMUR: Governor declares state of emergency
WCVB: Ice knocks out power to thousands
In New Hampshire, more than 300,000 residents had no electricity, CNN affiliate WMUR in Manchester said, citing reports from four of the state's utility companies.

The station reported that fire departments across the state were scrambling to respond to reports of transformer explosions, downed power lines and utility poles, as well as burning and felled trees.

The New Hampshire state fire marshal's office told WMUR a 49-year-old man died during the ice storm. WMUR reported a 49-year-old man died from carbon monoxide poisoning while trying to heat his camper using a generator.

Gov. John Lynch declared a state of emergency and issued a statement, saying, "With rain expected to continue and temperatures expected to drop as the day progresses it is important that the state has all its resources available to manage this situation."

Amtrak train service between Albany, New York, and New York City was suspended Friday morning, as was service between Portland, Maine, and Boston, Massachusetts. Ice and wind caused tree limbs to clutter the tracks and work crews could not clear them.

Amtrak said it hoped to have service restored by Friday evening rush hour.

The National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning Friday morning, saying that increasing winds and significant amounts of snow and sleet were expected. The deteriorating conditions could result in further damage to trees and power lines, the weather service said.

Central Maine Power had 220,000 homes and businesses without electricity, spokesman John Carroll said Friday afternoon.

In upstate New York, two utility companies reported that more than 200,000 customers were without power

More than 50,000 Central Hudson Gas & Electric customers in the Hudson River Valley were without power early Friday afternoon, said Denise VanBuren, a spokeswoman for the utility.

Mutual aid crews in neighboring areas are spread thin, VanBuren said, so utility officials are requesting help from out-of-state crews, meaning power is not likely to be restored until Sunday or Monday.

National Grid in New York reported more than 185,000 customers lost power in 23 counties. The company also had 22,000 customers in New Hampshire and 6,000 in Rhode Island without power.

Residents also were having to contend with floods caused by excessive rainfall and blocked storm drains.

The power outages raised concerns about the health of senior citizens in Holden, Massachusetts, and Goffstown, New Hampshire.

Medical crews in Goffstown evacuated the Villager Nursing Home after the facility lost power. Residents were moved to a nearby middle school, WMUR reported.

In Holden, senior citizens requiring oxygen were transported to a local hospital or a makeshift shelter at the town's senior center, according to WCVB.

"Stay home if you live in Holden. Don't come to Holden if you work here," Holden Fire Chief Jack Chandler told WCVB.

Friday's weather service forecast called for continued snow showers and temperatures below freezing across the Northeast. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches were expected

Friday, December 12, 2008

Snow in NOLA


I remember the last accumulation in 1989. I can't remember another since then.

Amazing! Saints go to Chicago and it snows in New Orleans! Three years in a row the Bears ended the Saints season!

HLG

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Sub-Polar Storm "LARRY"


I think that in honor of the Larestar's outstanding forecast of this strong winter storm we should categorize this event.

Thus, I propose this storm as a sub-polar storm, since it obviously DID NOT originate in the polar regions, but it's cyclogenesis is along a polar air-mass which has intruded into the tropics in the latest manifestation of the on-coming Ice Age.

So, please take a look at Sub-Polar Storm (01-2008) "LARRY"

-HLG

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Nice image in China high valley


Cold air pooled in a high valley of Western China. Nice image of low clouds with surrounding terrain.

HLG

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

WHEW....

I thought we had a shot at making this list....

http://tech.msn.com/products/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=13523062&GT1=40000

BB

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

RE: [Four Weather Studs and a Babe!] New comment on Winter Storm?.

Yep BB, I noticed that (I was going by the 06Z run early this AM, which was similar to several previous runs).  The 12Z GFS has dramatically changed from 06Z by pulling the cold core further north and delayed the development of the system by several days--may be a trend or an anomalous run.  For several days has been consistently showing some sort of major southern system around mid-month.......................have to see where (and when) (and if) it eventually settles.
 
larster

Winter Storm?

Anyone notice the big southern winter storm weekend after next (~12-13th)?  540 thickness is north of the coast (snowline for the non-meteorologists) while precipitating, but freeze line is south offshore (icestorm/sleet?).  Have to keep an eye on this one to see if it pans out.
 
larster

Monday, December 1, 2008

2008 Atlantice Hurricane Season Set Multiple Records


- The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season officially came to an end Sunday.

It was the fourth busiest storm season on record, tied with 1944.

This year's season saw 16 named storms. Eight storms became hurricanes, three of which reached category-3 strength or higher.

This year was the first time on record that six consecutive storms struck the U.S. mainland. A record three category-3 storms hit Cuba.

Bertha, in July, was the longest lived July storm on record in the Atlantic. It lasted 17 days.

Fay, in August, became the only storm on record to make landfall in Florida four times. And Paloma reached category-4 strength, the second-strongest November hurricane on record.

- HLG (IMage is from TC 06 B (B is for Bay of Bengal after all from last week)

Monday, November 24, 2008

IT AIN'T OVER UNTIL...


... the healthy, rotund female sings... Still haven't seen November Tropical Cyclone predictions - still have time!

BB

Sunday, November 23, 2008

SAY IT AINT SO WAPO, SAY IT AINT SO...

From the Washington Post

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/11/nbc_fires_twc_environmental_un.html

Staffing Cuts - on-air meteorologists

Dave Schwartz
Cheryl Lemke
Eboni Deon
Staff of "Forecast Earth"

"...always difficult to lose valued employees..."
"...doing our best to minimize the impact..."
"...committed to providing the highest quality content..."

No comments on pregnancy and Weather Channel employment though. Clearly the Weather Channel went above and beyond the call of duty when it came to keeping late-term pregnant woman on the air.

BB

Friday, November 21, 2008

IF BLOGS WERE AROUND WHEN WE WERE IN THE OOC

From CIMSS -

Interesting “O-shaped clouds” over the Eastern Pacific Ocean






Just imagine the possibilities...

WHERE IS HEATHER TESCH????

News article on the Drudge stated that layoffs are occurring at the Weather Channel. Which got me to thinking - since Marshall left, the morning crew was Heather, Nicole and some guy. Now I just see Nicole and some other guy. Not that I mind seeing Nicole a lot more at all - be thankful for small blessings - but now I'm worried about Heather.

So Heather, I know you are an avid reader of FWSAAB. Please contact us as soon as possible and let us know you are fine. PLEASE! If you have a chance, attach any photos or names of places that you frequent in Atlanta.

God Speed Weather Channel. You are now part of the NBC Universal Corporation....

BB

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

LA Fires and a Nice Plankton Bloom



Gotta love MODIS.

LA Fire smoke, and a very nice circular plankton bloom off New Zealand.

-HLG

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Arctic Sea Ice Currently More Than 30% Above Normal

After hearing all summer about the sea ice being below average, now, in November 2008, it is 30 percent ABOVE normal. Where are all the screaming headlines about this development? - HLG

Arctic Sea Ice Sees 'Significant Increase' in Size Following 'Extreme Cold'

Thomas Lifson
The ultraliberal CBC reports a truth that is mighty inconvenient for Al Gore.


There's an upside to the extreme cold temperatures northern Canadians have endured in the last few weeks: scientists say it's been helping winter sea ice grow across the Arctic, where the ice shrank to record-low levels last year. Temperatures have stayed well in the -30s C and -40s C range since late January throughout the North, with the mercury dipping past -50 C in some areas. Satellite images are showing that the cold spell is helping the sea ice expand in coverage by about 2 million square kilometres, compared to the average winter coverage in the previous three years. "It's nice to know that the ice is recovering," Josefino Comiso, a senior research scientist with the Cryospheric Sciences Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland, told CBC News on Thursday. [...] Winter sea ice could keep expanding. The cold is also making the ice thicker in some areas, compared to recorded thicknesses last year, Lagnis added. "The ice is about 10 to 20 centimetres thicker than last year, so that's a significant increase," he said. If temperatures remain cold this winter, Langis said winter sea ice coverage will continue to expand.


Will somebody please tell all the schoolchildren frightened by nightmares of drowning polar bears that Al Gore unnecessarily scared them?

Brown Cloud Over South Asia


The "Brown Clouds" of Asia have made climate-change news in the past few weeks. Finally there is asknowledgement that these large regional/continental scale persistent phenomenon are skewing the models. This is a nice image of the daily cloud over the Himalaya Front.

-HLG

More Bad "Global Warming" Science

Or is it a religion afterall?

How many global newservices picked up the stargling "record warm October" story? How many will print the retraction??? - HLG

One of the Global Warming Movement's Most Prominent Sources of Information Makes a Huge Blunder
Monday, November 17, 2008


In Hot Water

Last week, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies — one of the four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures used by the United Nations — announced last month was the hottest October on record. That was because the institute's maps showed a 10-degree increase across parts of Russia.

But Christopher Booker at the Telegraph newspaper writes that when some climate change skeptics took a closer look at the numbers "they made an astonishing discovery."

He says the blogs Watts Up With That? and Climate Audit found "figures from the previous month had simply been carried over and repeated two months running."

That means October's supposedly record-breaking temperatures were in fact recorded in September and the institute promptly revised the figures. A spokesman says the error occurred because the Russian figures were obtained from an outside source. He said the Goddard Institute does not have the resources to exercise proper quality control over the data.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Severe Weather Set-up in the Gulf South?

Srong low in the north central Gulf, and a vigorous jet streak behind it. Is there severe weather about to break out in the region?

HLG

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Amazing Remnant Low of "PALERMO"


Nearly a week after Palermo hit Cuba, crossed over, and then recrossed back as remnant low, you can still find it, now in the Gulf of Mexico!

HLG

BOB BRECK DARES TO QUESTION AL GORE!

(picture from Cape Town, South Africa - courtesy of BB)

Quote from Bob Breck's Blog (say that three times fast) tonight -

"Could it be that Dr. Bill Gray's theory of increased hurricane activity is due to cycles in ocean currents and not due to GW? The FSU study seems to confirm Dr. Gray's theory."

Most blog readers believe Bob Breck made the comment to generate interest in his blog. Signs show that this ploy is not working. We shall see how AL G and HLG respond.

(... and i can't sleep...)
BB

Saturday, November 8, 2008

dang....




Unfortunately, I don't recall the November-only tropical forecast from CSU but I'm sure they would have nailed this major Cat 4 storm. The last time a Cat 4 hit this area was Hurricane Michelle in 2001, causing more damage that the Meech party of 1991 (which saw a supervisor taunted, underwear burned, furniture zarronized and husbands locked out of houses).

Paloma is only the 6th Cat 4 storm to form in November (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes). When will the madness end?

BB

"PALOMA" Makes Category 4

Intensity models are once again too low.

Also, "PALOMA" quietly made history as the record, 5th major ("M" Storm) hurricane of the 2008 season.

I assume the three "M" storms that will have hit Cuba are also a record for landfalls.

-HLG

Friday, November 7, 2008

Global Warming Running Amok in South Dakota

South Dakota Hit With 4 Feet of Snow
Thursday, November 06, 2008


SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — A wintry blast of punishing wind and close to 4 feet of snow in places pummeled the Northern Plains on Thursday, stranding unknown numbers of motorists for a day or more and knocking out power to thousands.

State officials said some people could be without power for days, but they had a simple message for anyone thinking of trying to drive in western South Dakota's blizzard: Don't.

"This is a dangerous storm," Gov. Mike Rounds told reporters in a telephone conference call Thursday evening. "Western South Dakota is basically under a no-travel advisory."

A long stretch of Interstate 90 was closed, and Rounds said most of the dozens of vehicles stranded along the stretch of highway had not been moved. Some have been stranded for more than 24 hours, he said, adding that search teams can't get to them because of zero visibility.

"We cannot see a thing in many areas where we're out actually searching for people," said Tom Dravland, state Public Safety secretary, who added that the top speed for some rescue crews was as little as a half-mile per hour.

Dravland said he did not know how many people are stranded. The Highway Patrol has responded to more than 400 calls for assistance, including 10 crashes. No fatalities were reported by late Thursday afternoon.

The storm already has dropped 45.7 inches of snow near Deadwood, in the northern Black Hills. Reports of 10 inches to 2 feet of snow were received from many West River counties. In some towns, residents reported drifts were blocking their doorways, and in the southwestern corner of the state, 20-foot snowdrifts were reported on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation.

Dozens of schools, agencies, businesses and attractions, including Mount Rushmore National Memorial, were closed because of the weather, which included wind gusts higher than 50 mph.

The storm also closed Interstate 80 in eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.

The snow started Wednesday afternoon and was moving east. Greg Harmon of the Sioux Falls National Weather Service office said winds should subside in the west early Friday and in the east later in the day.

The wind and heavy snow caused many power failures, but repair crews can't get to the downed lines because of the blizzard, Rounds said. More than 10,000 customers lost power at some point in Nebraska and South Dakota.

In North Dakota, parts of Dunn County received about 9 inches of snow, the Weather Service said.

"The wind is blowing so hard it's hard to tell how much snow we got," said Terry Sarlsland, street superintendent in Bowman, N.D. "We got 4-foot drifts in some places."

Sharon Gjermundson, a postmaster in Taylor, N.D., said that about a foot of snow kept her from punching in at work Thursday, and that she and her husband were worried about their livestock.

"We hope all the cattle are OK," she said.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Three Strange Lows at Once

What an odd satellite image this morning.

Not unusual to have two major lows in Eastern North America, but today we have three note-worthy storms.

1) Large Pacific system over Central North America, brining a good deal of snow on the back-side.

2) Evolving Sub-tropical/Nor'Easter hybrid on the East Coast.

3) Finally, not to be forgotten an evolving hurricane in NW Caribbean, which appears to be the fourth storm for Cuba this year, still realing from food shortages from the previous three!

HELP AL, HELP!!!


HLG

Sad Day in Science (Fiction that is)

The great science-fiction genius, Michael Crichton (Author of Jurrasic Park, Andromeda Strain, The Sphere, etc) died unexpectedly of cancer today. He will be greatly missed by the lovers of great science-fiction and fact. Oddly enough the following story appeared on the same day, which means that we are that much closer to "Pleistocene Park", and maybe more, if we dare . . .

Cloned Mammoths Made More Likely by Frozen Mice
Wednesday, November 05, 2008

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AP




But cloned woolly mammoths just became more possible, thanks to Japanese researchers who announced Monday that they'd cloned dead mice that had been frozen for 16 years.

When animal tissue freezes, cell walls burst and the DNA inside the cell nuclei can be seriously damaged. Because of that, most scientists had assumed it'd be impossible to get any good DNA from the thousands of frozen mammoths thought to still lie in Siberian permafrost.

The Japanese team figured, however, that the high concentration of sugar in brain tissue might preserve DNA. So they ground up frozen mice brains, found some useful DNA and put it into unfertilized live mouse eggs.

The resulting embryos were used to create stem cells, which in turn made more embryos. At the end, 13 mice were born.

Cloning mammoths would probably be tougher, since the temperatures of the frozen carcasses have fluctuated a lot over tens of thousands of years. If good DNA could be found, donor eggs could be used from Asian elephants, close relatives of mammoths. (African elephants are more distantly related.)

GSL.

More solar and Earth atmosphere connections.

'Flux Transfer Event' Links Sun's, Earth's Magnetic Fields
Wednesday, November 05, 2008

By Jeanna Bryner

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NASA


An artist's concept shows a magnetic portal connecting Earth's magnetic field to the sun's.
Like giant, cosmic chutes between the Earth and sun, magnetic portals open up every eight minutes or so to connect our planet with its host star.

Once the portals open, loads of high-energy particles can travel the 93 million miles (150 million km) through the conduit during its brief opening, space scientists say.

Called a flux transfer event, or FTE, such cosmic connections not only exist but are possibly twice as common as anyone ever imagined, according to space scientists who attended the 2008 Plasma Workshop in Huntsville, Ala., last month.

"Ten years ago I was pretty sure they didn't exist, but now the evidence is incontrovertible," said David Sibeck, an astrophysicist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.

• Click here to visit FOXNews.com's Space Center.

Dynamic bursts

Researchers have long known that the Earth and sun must be connected.

RelatedStories
Moon Might Preserve Alien Life in Dark Craters Hubble Telescope Photographs Cosmic 'Perfect 10' Nearby Solar System Looks a Lot Like Our Own NASA: Space Smells Like 'Steak and Metal' Infant Stars Caught in Act of Feeding For instance, particles from the sun are constantly whisked away via the solar wind and often follow magnetic field lines that connect the sun's atmosphere with terra firma.

The field lines allow particles to penetrate Earth's magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble that surrounds our planet.

"We used to think the connection was permanent and that solar wind could trickle into the near-Earth environment anytime the wind was active," Sibeck said. "We were wrong. The connections are not steady at all. They are often brief, bursty and very dynamic."

Several speakers at the workshop outlined the formation of a flux transfer event. One idea is that on the side of Earth facing the sun, our magnetic field presses against the sun's magnetic field.

About every eight minutes, the two fields briefly reconnect, forming a portal through which particles can flow. The portal takes the form of a magnetic cylinder about as wide as Earth.

Sibeck said to think of the FTE as a giant rolling pin that lies flat along the boundary between the Earth's and sun's magnetic fields. (He noted the rolling pin would have to be malleable so it could pierce through both magnetic fields while lying flat.)

"These FTEs kind of look like roller pins, and they form as little blob roller pins at the tip of the magnetosphere facing the sun," Sibeck told SPACE.com. "They can't decide which way they're going to slide around the Earth, so they grow there into big roller pins and then they take off and sort of spirally roll along [Earth's magnetosphere] like you're pounding out dough."

More than one FTE can form at once, he said, and they stay open for about 15 to 20 minutes.

More to learn

In order to measure such FTEs, spacecraft must not only catch them forming but also be on either end of the magnetic structures (either lengthwise or widthwise).

In fact, the European Space Agency's fleet of four Cluster spacecraft and NASA's five THEMIS probes have flown through and surrounded these cylinders, measuring their dimensions and sensing the particles that shoot through, Sibeck said.

While these measurements have nailed down the width of an FTE, the length is still uncertain though one measurement put it at up to five Earth radii. One Earth radius is about 4,000 miles (6,400 kilometers).

Astrophysicist Jimmy Raeder of the University of New Hampshire used those measurements to develop computer simulations of the portals. He found the cylindrical portals tend to form above Earth's equator and then in December, the FTEs would roll over the North Pole. In July, they roll over the South Pole.

Sibeck thinks the events occur twice as often as previously thought, proposing two types of flux transfer events — active and passive.

When the magnetic cylinders are active, they allow particles to flow through rather easily, forming important conduits of energy for Earth's magnetosphere, Sibeck said.

When passive, the cylinders have more resistance to transiting particles. The internal structure of a passive cylinder makes it tougher for particles and magnetic fields to flow through.

Sibeck has calculated the properties of passive FTEs and hopes he and his colleagues will hunt for signs of them in data collected with THEMIS and Cluster.

The space scientists at the workshop still want to figure out why the portals form every eight minutes and how magnetic fields inside the cylinders twist and coil.

Copyright © 2008 Imaginova Corp. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

More excitement in the Friendly Skies (Please don't drink and fly)

Flight Diverted After Crew Restrains Unruly Passenger With Tape
Wednesday, November 05, 2008

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RALEIGH, North Carolina — An airline crew used duct tape to keep a passenger in her seat because they say she became unruly, fighting flight attendants and grabbing other passengers, forcing the flight to land in North Carolina.

Maria Esther Castillo is due in court Thursday, charged with resisting arrest and interfering with the operations of a flight crew aboard United Airlines Flight 645, from Puerto Rico to Chicago.

Castillo, 45, struck a flight attendant on the buttocks with the back of her hand during Saturday's flight, FBI Special Agent Peter Carricato said in a criminal complaint filed in U.S. District Court in Charlotte. She also stood and fell onto the head of a blind passenger and later started pulling the person's hair, the complaint stated.

Ankle cuffs kept slipping off Castillo, so the flight crew and two passengers were forced to use duct tape to keep her in her seat, the complaint states.

She calmed as the pilot diverted the flight to Charlotte-Douglass International Airport, but became disruptive again when authorities boarded the plane to remove her, authorities said.

Carricato states that a passenger saw Castillo having drinks in an airport bar before boarding. She bought another drink on the plane. Flight attendants stopped serving her alcohol because of her behavior, the complaint states.

RelatedStories
Fellow Flyers Duct-Tape Drunk to His Seat After He Allegedly Attacked a Flight Attendant FBI spokeswoman Amy Thoreson on Wednesday declined to comment on the ongoing investigation.

A message left for Castillo's attorney, Julia Mimms, was not immediately returned.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Happy (Belated) Birthday to Hot Lava Geographer

I think the other Wx Studs and the Babe should join me in wishing our good friend and colleague HLG a Happy Belated Birthday (Nov. 3rd). We look forward to seeing you when you return stateside in December. Many happy returns.

KF

Tuesday, November 4, 2008





The luckiest man in the world is retiring today. How could a guy leave a pair like Mitchell and Tesch? Who will they choose to be the meat between the loaves of bread? On this important Election Day - these questions need to be answered.

Marshall... Marshall... Marshall... I can't tell you how jealous I have been of you all these years. Be safe and have an enjoyable retirement. You've been blessed.

BB

Friday, October 31, 2008

Early Winter Outbreak in NW Europe


As Dr BB points out. There has been unusually early snow and cold in NW Europe. What in the name of Al "Global Warming" Gore is going on here?

-HLG

Serious Snow Seen form Space in Tibet!


Worst snow storm in Tibet. Harbinger of impending advance of the next ice-age?

HLG

Global Warming Out of Control!

7 killed in Tibet's 'worst snowstorm'



BEIJING, China (CNN) -- At least seven people have been found dead after "the worst snowstorm on record in Tibet," China's state-run news agency reported Friday.

About 1,350 people were rescued in Lhunze County -- another 300 were trapped -- after nearly five feet (1.5 meters) of snow blanketed much of Tibet this week.


The storm caused buildings to collapse, blocked roads and killed about 144,000 head of cattle, the state-run China Daily newspaper reported.

The seven people who died either froze to death or were killed as a result of collapsing buildings, and one person is still missing, China Daily said.

- HLG

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

TEHUANTEPEC

I've been watching satellite loops around the Gulf of Tehauntepec. Conditions are conducive to an upwelling and high wave event - as can be seen in the following images from the Naval Oceanographic Office.

Brings back old memories...

BB


Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Meteorology Coordinator in Denver

Interesting Job Notice for Clipper Wind Power




Meteorology Coordinator

SUMMARY: The Meteorology Coordinator will work with Meteorology Team to provide coordination of and logistical support to the various technical and non-technical tasks related to the installation and maintenance of anemometry equipment and collection and management of wind data and metadata.

DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES:

Meteorological Tower Installations (60%)
* Work with Meteorology team to identify locations where meteorological towers are needed at each project and within what timeframe.
* Engage land and permitting teams as needed to ensure contracts are in place with landowners and appropriate permits are obtained for tower locations.
* Manage competitive bid process for installation services and direct the work of multiple contractors by phone and email remotely, including off-hours and travelling as needed.
* Identify equipment configuration that is appropriate for a given site and procure all necessary hardware in coordination with installation contractors.
* Complete meteorological equipment installations on time and ensure installation documentation is complete and accurate.
* Ensure that all meteorological equipment is properly operating after installation.
* Ensure metadata is promptly and properly represented on the internal database and for display on internal website.

Meteorological Tower Maintenance and Repair (25%)
* Improve the success rate of remote data collection by installing new equipment and promptly identifying towers that fail.
* Work with Anemometry Analyst and internal website to detect sensors and other equipment that may have been damaged.
* Rapidly respond to tower repairs and complete routine maintenance of aging towers to avoid significant loss of data or data quality degradation.
* Manage the work of multiple contractors to perform all necessary tower maintenance and repairs, including the procurement of repaired or replaced equipment.
* Travel to perform tower maintenance on-site, including data retrieval and the replacement of damaged equipment.

Meteorological Data Management (15%)
* Ensure all tower locations and metadata is confirmed as accurate and properly represented on meteorological database and internal website.
* Perform data QC on tower data as required for internal analyses, tower sensor evaluation.
* Provide raw and QC'd data in required formats for various business processes, proposals and 3rd party analysts as requested.

MINIMUM JOB REQUIREMENTS:
* Candidates preferably have a degree in Meteorology, a technical or logistically-related field with 2 years of relevant experience.? Specific experience in logistics, purchasing, coordination of field work / contractors is preferred.? This position may require traveling in the U.S., Canada and Mexico to meteorological tower sites to perform initial site evaluations and to oversee wind energy meteorological tower installations, including location approval, supervision of installation and maintenance/repair of towers
* Experience desired with mapping software/GIS, database use and interaction.

KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS, AND ABILITIES REQUIRED:
* Knowledge of mapping/GIS software (specifically, ArcView/ArcInfo and/or XMap).
* Computer expertise in MS Office suite and databases a plus; should be web-savvy.
* Able to effectively manage multiple activities with multiple components simultaneously
* Ability to comprehend and assimilate technical information about meteorological instrumentation, steel tubular and lattice towers, instrument booms, electronic logging and transmitting equipment
* Works well as a team member, regularly communicating with team members and able to adapt to changing priorities without difficulty
* Strong organizational and job-task prioritization skills are required
* High-level written and oral communication skills
* Ability to create, build and manage relationships with vendors, crews, contractors of varying types in a professional, courteous and efficient manner.

WORKING CONDITIONS:
* Moderate business office noise (cubicle environment, business office with phones, conference calls, printers, light traffic)
* Travel of approximately 30% to project sites
* Able to lift up to 50 lbs.

Monday, October 27, 2008

BIG HONKIN' HIGH

Almost the entire continental U.S. will be smothered by the Katrina of High Pressure Systems - a 1045 mb low centered over the bread basket of our nation. This means that cool temperatures, light winds and abundant sunshine will be in store for most of the nation.

So where are the warnings? Why can't we give this beast a name? What about the children? Should someone be concerned about the state of our nation's weather?

I for one will take this opportunity to watch the Weather Channel this morning to see what Capt. Nicole Mitchell is wearing. She will not disappoint. She will not let this nation down.

Yes, the weather is boring today... By the way, HLG, where did you get your death stats for Yemen? Last count was 61 dead, from news reports that I read this morning. (sorry non sequitur from the original post...)

BB

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Final Words on Dealy TC 03 "B" in Yemen

Well no one has come forward with what the "B" stands for, but this storm is one for the records books anyway.

Reliable records from Yemen (one of the poorest countries in the world)are hard to come by, but if you piece the news reports together it is clear that TC 03 "B" caused at least:

100's of deaths,

100's more "missing", probably dead

10's of thousands newly homeless as their mud-brick hovels were washed away.

All of this from a cyclone that was barely ever a true TD level of storm.

Amazing.

HLG

Friday, October 24, 2008

Beautiful Color Image of TC03 B in Gulf of Aden


You just don't see many tropical systems surrounds on nearly all sides by the driest of deserts.

HLG

Thursday, October 23, 2008

TC 03B Arabian Sea


Anyone know what this storm has a "B" in the Arabian Sea?

TC 03 "B"?

Anyway, this is a nice shot from "KALPANA" Indian Weather Satellite. Don't see many tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Aden.

Cancel that vacation trip (next meeting of WMO?) in Yemen! Why? Because it is raining and it NEVER RAINS there.

HLG

2008 - MORE ICE

Fortunately, the Arctic ice minimum (the spatial coverage of ice in the Arctic) was larger than in 2007 - when it looked like all the ice would melt away. I remember the good ol' days when Larster would analyze his one GIUK image and say "Too much ice, no fronts to analyze." Then he would go back to his desk and fall asleep.

Now look at him....
BB

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

More Weird Aviation News: Drunk Pilots and UFOs!

'Drunk' United Airlines Pilot Arrested Before Takeoff
Tuesday, October 21, 2008



LONDON — A Unied Airlines pilot was arrested in a jet’s cockpit minutes before take-off Sunday on suspicion of being drunk.

Hundreds of stunned passengers watched police march the 44-year-old American first officer off the Boeing 777.

The United Airlines flight to San Francisco was delayed at Heathrow for almost three hours while a replacement co-pilot was found.

Cops swooped after a tip-off from ground staff, who suspected the airman was boozing before the 5,300-mile flight.

One stunned passenger said: “We couldn’t believe what we were seeing. The pilot was frog-marched off the aircraft.

“A couple of police officers stormed on to the plane as we were all sitting down and went straight for the cockpit.

“We didn’t have a clue what was happening and we were kept waiting on the plane for hours.

“It is horrifying to think we were apparently so close to being flown thousands of miles by somebody who could have been drinking.

“It was a horrible start to our trip but if it wasn’t for the person who called the cops, our dream holiday could have become a nightmare.”

The pilot was arrested at 9am on board flight 955 after failing a breathalyser.

He was bailed and ordered to return to Heathrow airport police station in January.

The legal limit for pilots is nine micrograms of alcohol in 100 millilitres of breath. The drink-drive limit is 35 micrograms. If convicted, the officer would face up to two years in jail.

U.S. Pilot Ordered to Shoot Down UFO Over England
Monday, October 20, 2008



The Sun


Apr. 2008: A visitor from outer space? A 'UFO' is photographed over Dudley, England.
A former Top Gun said Sunday he was ordered to shoot down a massive UFO over Norwich, England, 50 years ago.

RAF controllers told U.S. pilot Milton Torres to "lock on" and launch all 24 of his rockets over the city.

But as he came within seconds of firing at the alien intruder — "the size of an aircraft carrier" on his radar — it vanished at 10,000 mph.

The amazing close encounter is revealed in secret Ministry of Defense X-Files which are being declassified Monday.

Milton said, "It was some kind of alien snooping over England. I guess we'll never know what it was."

The incident happened in 1957 when Milton was a 26-year-old U.S. Air Force lieutenant based at RAF Manston in Kent, England.


UK: Jet captain reported UFO sightingStory Highlights



LONDON, England (CNN) -- Thousands of documents about reported UFO sightings -- ranging from calm accounts by professional pilots to unhinged rants about the extraterrestrial menace -- have been released by the British Ministry of Defence.


Taiwan resident Lee Chun-hung took these pictures showing a ball of fire trailing across the sky.

The 4,500 pages cover sightings that were reported from 1986 through 1992. The British military released them to a curious public as part of a four-year project to transfer all such documents to the National Archives.

One highlight from the batch released Monday involves the captain of an Italian airliner. He shouted "Look out!" to his co-pilot in April 1991 after claiming to see a beige "missile-shaped object" shoot past the cockpit.

In that instance, the defence ministry ruled out a missile and "all the usual explanations," wrote David Clarke, a UFO expert and journalism instructor at Sheffield Hallam University, who worked with the National Archives to prepare the new materials for release.

"The end result was this was a genuine UFO and the file was simply closed," he wrote. "There was nothing more they could do."

The newly released documents also carry an account by a U.S. Air Force pilot who says he was told to shoot down an unidentified flying craft over eastern England. But before he could fire, the object disappeared.

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The next day, a man arrived to debrief the pilot and "he was told in no uncertain terms that what he had seen on his radar was top secret and he wasn't to speak about it to anyone," Clarke wrote.

The first set of files was made available to members of the public in May. It covered reported UFO sightings from 1978 to 1987, and included hundreds of police reports taken from witnesses who described seeing lights or strange objects in the sky.

People who reported having seen UFOs typically describe various shapes and colors of lights, moving in formation or hovering in the sky. Witnesses reported orange, red, white and green lights that were diamond-shaped, square, or cigar-shaped.

They reported them to police, who have a standard 16-question form specifically for UFO sightings.

"The vast majority of them are just ordinary people who've seen something unusual and thought that they ought to tell someone about it," Clarke has said.

The Ministry of Defence said it examined the reports solely to determine whether enemy aircraft had infiltrated British airspace. Once it was determined that no enemy aircraft were in the sky, it did not investigate further.

"The Ministry of Defence has no other interest or role regarding UFO matters and does not consider questions regarding the existence or otherwise of extraterrestrial life-forms," it said in May.

That left many incidents unexplained.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Subtropical Swirly Thingy Alert!


And yet nothing from the NHC!

What happened to all the "Special Subtropical Disturbance Statements" of previous seasons?

HLG

"IKE" Mysery Continues

Search is on for caskets unearthed by IkeStory Highlights
Hurricane Ike washed dozens of caskets from graves in Louisiana, Texas






IN THE MARSH OF CAMERON PARISH, Louisiana (AP) -- Joe Johnson craned his neck from the airboat as it circled a patch of brown marsh grass. The runaway coffin was not where it was supposed to be.


A coffin disgorged by Hurricane Ike is found in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, on October 8.

Johnson pulled up to a pile of rocks, killed the motor and hopped out. After a few minutes of scouring along the tall, reedlike grass, he flagged down two fishermen.

"Can you possibly take me along the shoreline?" Johnson asked. "I'm looking for a casket."

Beyond the usual, dismal rebuilding, Hurricane Ike left another grim task when it struck last month: Its 13-foot storm surge washed an estimated 200 caskets out of their graves, ripping through most of Cameron Parish's 47 cemeteries and others in southwest Louisiana and coastal Texas. Some coffins floated miles into the marsh.

At Hollywood Cemetery in Orange, Texas, Ike unearthed about 100 caskets. Dozens more were disgorged in hard-hit Galveston.

Officials in coastal areas have long struggled with interring the dead, as caskets buried in low-lying areas are susceptible to being belched up by floodwaters. Some areas -- most notably New Orleans -- house the dead in above-ground crypts to keep them from drifting away in storms.

For many of the dead forced up by Ike, it wasn't their first disturbance. About 80 percent of the caskets in southwest Louisiana displaced by Ike were rousted by Hurricane Rita just three years earlier, said Zeb Johnson, the Calcasieu Parish deputy coroner who has headed casket recovery efforts for Rita and Ike.

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Of the caskets ejected by Rita in September 2005, 335 were found and reburied, he said. Eighteen were never found.

"Our mother came out for Rita, and now she came out for Ike," said Debra Dyson, a commercial fisher whose house in Cameron was destroyed by Ike.

Dyson said coffins holding her brother-in-law and cousin also were heaved out by Rita. Ike was worse -- the storm thrust out caskets containing her mother, brother-in-law, cousin, niece, three uncles and two aunts.

The one containing Dyson's mother floated to the same spot it came to rest after Rita, 22 miles from the cemetery. Only this time, it didn't take nine months to find it.

"It's hard to lose your home, but the first stop you make is that cemetery just to make sure they're still there, and it's heartbreaking when they're not," said Marilyn Dyson Elizondo, Dyson's sister who lives in Dayton, Texas.

Zeb Johnson helms a team of two employees, volunteer boat pilots and state prisoners to search hundreds of miles of marsh with loaned equipment and haul coffins back to shore. The work is backbreaking, with caskets weighed down by mud in swampy areas teeming with alligators and snakes and the stench of rotting marsh grass.

"It's a job that has to be done," said Joe Johnson, a funeral director and embalmer from Lake Charles who is not related to the deputy coroner.

Joe Johnson's half-hour ride with the fishermen didn't turn up the pink casket reported to the coroner's office, like so many other tips that don't pan out. An hour later, however, he returned with another coffin found in thick grass near a canal bank.

A hole was drilled into the silver metal container to drain out marsh muck and lighten the load for the airboat. Prisoners pulling the casket from the boat tipped it again to empty out more of the fetid water.

The coffin was trucked to the city coliseum in Lake Charles, where the Federal Emergency Management Agency was providing refrigerated trucks to hold caskets until reburial arrangements could be made.

"It's a slow process," Zeb Johnson said.

The Calcasieu Parish Coroner's Office is footing most of the search and recovery bill, which hasn't been tallied. But reburying the dead is estimated to cost as much as $100,000 on top of the recovery costs, with much of the money needed for new caskets and vaults. Zeb Johnson wasn't sure who'll cover that price tag, so he wasn't sure when reburial could begin.

More than 140 coffins had been found by Wednesday, and about 20 others that didn't stray far from their burial sites were quickly reburied. Zeb Johnson doesn't expect to find all of the two dozen or more that remain missing.

"The first day we found caskets that had floated 30 miles from their cemeteries," he said. "You just have caskets floating out in the marsh. At least seven of these caskets ended up in Texas, kind of like boats, they just got out in the currents from the high waters and carried them to Texas."

The identification work in many instances is easier this time around. Bodies found after Rita were tagged with special markers, as were the silver metal coffins in which they were reburied. The coffins include a scroll with the deceased's name, where they were buried and other information.

A few families are considering reburials on higher ground. Cameron Parish's government has proposed requiring deeper burials.

Elizondo, whose family awaits word on the missing Dyson caskets, said her brother was buried in January in a deeper vault than those that housed her missing relatives. Ike didn't disturb her brother, so Elizondo wants to rebury her mother the same way, though it is more expensive.

"It's worth it. That way we have the peace of mind that mom won't be gone again," Elizondo said. "We've even offered to do the backhoe ourselves. We just don't want her coming back up again."

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Laptops Nearly Caused QANTAS to Crash?

First it was "clear-air turbulence", which was not true,

Then mechanical error?

Now they are concerned laptops on board that interfered with the A-330 fly-by-wire system!

http://www.foxnews.com/video/index.html?playerId=videolandingpage&streamingFormat=FLASH&referralObject=3150601&referralPlaylistId=playlist


Also, the passenger cell-phone video shown here raises the question. Did that cell-phone cause the glitch? Since you can't turn them on-off during take-off/landing, can you turn them on during a crash-landing? I have left mine on in my pocket before and forgotten it. How many do you think are on during any given jumbo flight with hundreds of people on board?


Have a safe flight. - HLG

MAJOR FREAKIN' DIPOLE


Water Vapor loop is really impressive. David Shere would be impressed.

BB

MAJOR HURRICANE "OMAR" KEEPS GROWING

...OMAR RACING NORTHEASTWARD...WINDS INCREASED TO 125 MPH.... - NHC

Will it ever stop? - HLG

MAJOR FREAKING HURRICANE "OMAR"


The radar signature was clear yesterday that a MAJOR FREAKING HURRICANE was about to develop. Amazingly Dr. Gray forecast this weeks in advance, but Dr NOAA BB missed it as it was nearly complete with major-freaking-hurriance-cyclogensis (MFHC).


Must be something in the weather down under?


HLG

MAJOR HURRICANE "OMAR"


Narrowly threads through the Lesser Antiles. Looks like all the islands missed a direct hit, which is amazing considering how many there are there, and how close they are.


HLG

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Go GRAY!

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN ANDNORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

It must be that Dr BB was standing on his head on the other side of the world when he failed to see a MAJOR HURRICANE developing in just a few hours after his post!

GO GRAY!

HLG

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Dr Gray's Forecast Looks Like GOLD!

As the tropics heat-up in October it appears our hero, Dr. Gray, made an astounding forecast. We may have not one, but two TS in the Caribbean at roughly the same time. When did that last happen? Speaking of anomolies, when did the last TS form in the eastern Caribbean, south of 15 N, and then immediatly begin to recurve? Very unusual.

For those of you (KF!) who don't like Dr. Gray's climatological based forecasting, how is it any different thatn "30 % Chance of Ioslated Showers, Somewhere Today" that we get from the NWS all the time?

HLG

Sunday, October 12, 2008

The Eyes of Texas are Upon You!


"NORBERT" that is!


Will the remnants of "NORBERT" cause flooding rains in West Texas?


The eyes of Texas are upon you,
All the live long day.
The eyes of Texas are upon you,
You cannot get away.
Do not think you can escape them,
At night, or early in the morn'.
The eyes of Texas are upon you,
Till Gabriel blows his horn!


HLG

Friday, October 10, 2008

MODIS Beauty Shot of "NORBERT"




And some internal waves off of Brasil. Can't resist those internal wave shots, from a former life I had as an Oceanographer.




HLG

Thursday, October 9, 2008

NORBERT THE NERD?

Another outstanding image from the CIMMS website. Norbert is not a nerd - but some sort of "m" storm on the NHC website. I'm still trying to understand the formation of the eye and eyewall - it just seems to magically appear in a few frames.

BB

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

New Symbols on NHC Maps


Have you noticed the new symbols NHC has been adding to their maps? There is a new "M" category, which I presume is for "Major" hurricane, but could stand for m@th#rf*ck@r, of a storm, I guess. - HLG

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Clear Air Turbulence?

That is what the airline first said. Now the truth is looking more mechanical. BUCKLE THOSE SEATBELTS WHEN HURTLING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE! - Have a safe flight. - HLG

SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- Instruments aboard a Qantas airliner warned of a glitch in its stabilization system when it suddenly rose and plunged, tossing unbelted passengers to the ceiling and injuring more than 70 people, Australian investigators said Wednesday.

The Australian carrier has been plagued by a series of other safety issues recently.

The A330-300 was carrying 303 passengers and 10 crew from Singapore to the Western Australian city of Perth, and was nearing its destination Tuesday when it experienced the sudden altitude changes while flying at 37,000 feet.
The plane made an emergency landing in Learmonth, Western Australia.
Passenger Jim Ford, of Perth, said he thought he was about to die as he watched people being flung around the cabin.
"It was horrendous, absolutely gruesome, terrible, the worst experience of my life," he said after being transferred to Perth airport following the incident.
Air Transport Safety Bureau investigators quarantined the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder and planned to interview crew and passengers. =Julian Walsh, director of the bureau's aviation safety investigation, told reporters that the pilots received electronic messages "relating to some irregularity with the aircraft's elevator control system."
That system helps keep the plane stable and level in flight.
The aircraft then "departed level flight," and climbed approximately 300 feet, he said.
"The crew had initiated the non-normal checklist response actions. The aircraft is then reported to have abruptly pitched nose down," Walsh said.
It was unclear how far in altitude the aircraft dropped during the incident.
Passengers who were not wearing seatbelts flew into the air, some hitting the ceiling of the plane.
Walsh said 14 people had serious, but not life-threatening, injuries such as concussions and broken bones. Thirty other passengers were treated in hospitals for concussions, minor lacerations and fractures. Another 30 people with minor bruises and stiff necks did not require hospital treatment.
Walsh said it was too soon to draw any conclusions about the specific cause of the accident, but that a preliminary report would be released within 30 days.
The ATSB investigation will examine the flight data recorders, on-board computer systems, air traffic control and radar warnings and weather conditions, he said.
A Qantas spokesman said the airline had no immediate response and no update on the incident.
It was the latest in a string of issues to plague the Australian airline since one of its flights was forced to make an emergency landing in the Philippines in July after an oxygen tank exploded on board, ripping a gaping hole in the fuselage

Dr BB Should Look at Visible Sometimes

The TS was clear as can be in the visible yesterday. IR isn't good for everything.

DrBB did make an interesting point (although it may have been lost in his rant). TS "MARCO" is one of the smallest seen in a long, long time in the Atlantic. The measured TS windfield is TEN NAUTICAL MILES in radius. Unreal. This follows on the heals of "IKE", which like "K05" was one of the largest Atlantic storms every measured. This begs the question, much like TS cyclogensis itself: "WTF is going on?" We don't have a clue why some of these are so small and others are so large, more or less why storms form in horrible conditions, and refuse to form in ideal conditions.

HLG

TROPICAL STORM NANA

Tropical Storm Nana quickly formed off the Alabama/Mississippi Coast today, going from a brief shower to tropical storm status in less than 20 minutes. Three Hurricane Hunter planes have flown into the Tropical Storm and found that winds are at least 40 knots in some areas. Panic residents are not sure where to turn since another tropical storm system, this in the guise of a cold front, is headed toward the area from the northwest.
Play the Tropical Storm Marco game - which red blob is actually a tropical storm in this picture? Note, it is not the one that looks like a tropical storm in the Caribbean.

HLBB

Dr BB Protests When NHC NAILS "MARCO"?

It does seem like a double standard to complain when the NHC nails a forecast, even if it is one YOU COMPLETELY BLEW. I know they were slow on "GUSTAV", which killed 800 plus Haitians, completely destroyed their food crops for this year, and made hundreds of villages completely cut-off, but man-0-man did they nail this one! Who could have possibly missed this enormous system on the very day it was deepening like a bomb????

HLG

Monday, October 6, 2008

FOUL FOUL FOUL!!!!

The following is from HLG - on the appearance of "Open Wave" Gustav on 27 August:

"Commentators recently describe "GUSTAV"'s appearance as an "Open Wave".

I think they have been high on VIPER, or something. This looks like a nice, compact little storm, with an improving CDO near the COC.

Has anyone noticed the models do not handle the small circulations as well as the larger ones? Is this a known bias?"



This petty little storm is called "Tropical Storm Marco." Why did the NHC jump all over this little storm cell, and hesitate so badly when Hurricane Gustav was raging off of Hispaniola? My sources tell me that the NHC was very upset with Dr. BB's forecast last night - and that they were going to "stick it to him." Clearly a sad situation... and one that merits a full investigation by the FWSAAB. This is clear intimidation to stop FWSAAB experts from providing daily hurricane forecasts. Because of a shower that is off the coast of the Louisiana coast, New Orleans officials are reviewing their evacuation plans just in case the NHC calls for a Tropical Storm tomorrow.....

GIVE ME A BREAK!!!

BB

Dr. BB's Forecast Goes Bust Bust!


The day isn't even over and that 24 hour forecast for the tropics went KAPUT!


"It is going to be a quiet tropical day tomorrow.That's according to the forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. BB, longtime Atlantic hurricane tracker based at Four Weather Studs And A Babe (FWSAAB). "My October 6th-only forecast calls for no named storms, no hurricanes and no major hurricanes," he writes on a document posted on the FWSAAB Web site. That's about zero overall activity as a normal 6 October day."


HLG :)

Sunday, October 5, 2008

DR. BB's TROPICAL PREDICTIONS



It is going to be a quiet tropical day tomorrow.
That's according to the forecast issued Sunday by Dr. BB, longtime Atlantic hurricane tracker based at Four Weather Studs And A Babe (FWSAAB). "My October 6th-only forecast calls for no named storms, no hurricanes and no major hurricanes," he writes on a document posted on the FWSAAB Web site. That's about zero overall activity as a normal 6 October day.
Dr. BB noticed an unusual lull in storm formation for nearly three weeks due to the color patterns exhibited by Capt Nicole Mitchell. "But things are picking up with her red sweater, red / black plaid skirt, and black knee-high leather boots noticed by KlingFree on 1 October," said Dr. BB at his exclusive resort at Hooters. "I've also heard that Geekygirl is going to fashion more outfits on the website to drum up some business. But that remains to be seen..."

BB

Friday, October 3, 2008

Something cooking in NW Caribbean?

Looks like Dr. Gray is on to something! Appears a low is forming with an improving upper environment. Hmmm.

HLG

Three Hundred Missing in Texas from "IKE"

If you study the Great Galveston Storm you will see wildly varying numbers of dead. It goes from 7,000 or so, to as high as 9-10,000. They didn't have as good population stats then, and Galveston was a booming port of immigration. No surprise there are over 300 still missing on the Texas Coast. Tragic that so many stayed when the terrible surge was so obvious, and was even LESS than forecast! I doubt they will find the majority of the missing. -HLG

300 people still missing since Ike hit Texas



(CNN) -- Alligators loom over submerged cars. Mountains of debris are embedded in the ground. The bodies of cows, trucks and the remnants of homes lie in and out of the water. And unverified sightings of missing loved ones make the rounds.

Traci Turner says she hasn't heard from her sister Danielle Chapman or her two nephews since the storm.




More than 300 people are missing since Hurricane Ike hit the Texas coast last month, and the obstacles to finding them are frustrating family and friends who desperately want to know if their loved ones are dead or alive.
These family and friends want answers: Why are so many still missing? Why has the first organized search for bodies, to be held Thursday on the battered Bolivar Peninsula, taken so long?
Local and state authorities are conducting Thursday's search and have been working with the Laura Recovery Center, a missing persons organization. The center helped compile a list of missing people and police are using the information to go door-to-door looking for answers.
"We are hopeful most of these people will be found, that a lot of them were evacuated to shelters or don't even know they've been listed as missing," said Bob Walcutt, executive director of the Laura Recovery Center in Friendswood, Texas. iReport.com: Are you looking for loved ones?
"We are hoping to get more answers as people call in or as school starts, but another week with this number could be a different story," he said.
As of Thursday morning, the number of missing hovered at 300, including 24 children. Laura Recovery Center volunteers, working with the Galveston Police Department and Galveston Emergency Management, have been fielding calls from family and friends of people missing since Ike hit September 12.
A majority of the missing come from the hardest-hit Texas towns of Crystal Beach, Port Bolivar, Gilchrist and Galveston.
Traci Turner of San Diego, California, doesn't know where her sister Danielle Chapman is. The last time she spoke to her was right after Hurricane Gustav hit the Gulf Coast, about a week before Ike came ashore.
At that time, Chapman said she and her family, who were on the west end of Galveston Island, were all OK.
Chapman, 32, and her sons Joel, 15, and Addison, 12, lived in a home at the far west end of the island, past Jamaica Beach.
Turner said that despite arduous online searching, she has seen no news or photos about that area and has heard nothing from her sister and nephews since Hurricane Ike.
"My heart is hurting. This is my little sister, and I love her to death," Turner said.
"These are her kids. I love them to death, and they are gone. I don't want to say it -- maybe they have been washed out, maybe they haven't -- maybe they are in a shelter. Either way, they are still missing."
Adding confusion to her search,Turner said, the recovery center took her sister and nephews off the list because someone called to say he or she knew their whereabouts.
Turner hasn't been able to talk to the person who called in the tip. So without any proof that her family is still alive, she cannot rest easy.
"Not until I hear a voice or see pictures of them," she said.
Turner, like many others, wishes a streamlined procedure were in place to find residents in an evacuation zone.
Chapman and other evacuees may not have a phone number for their relatives, Turner said. There should be a main number everyone knew to call, she said, so families across the Gulf Coast wouldn't be left in the dark as to whether their loved ones are dead or just scattered across the state.
The frustration about the post-Ike recovery runs deep for Robin Huber, pastor of a church that was destroyed along with her home in Gilchrist. Huber estimates only seven homes are still standing in Gilchrist, which is surrounded by huge piles of debris. Watch Galveston residents return home »
Cars and dead animals float in the bay, she said.
The amount of debris is unfathomable, Huber said, and it was hurled with such force that residents can barely dig through it.
"Imagine that all of these homes were picked up and dropped from a high airplane," she said. "It looks like a bomb exploded here and the pieces are so stuck in the earth, it's impossible to pull out. Who knows what is in there."
Cars and trucks litter the road leading to the highway as if they were trying to escape at the last moment, Huber said.
When she was allowed back to Gilchrist after the storm, Huber swore she saw a body leaning out of a submerged car.
"Nobody could get to them, because they were still under water and because of all of the alligators in the area," she said.
Huber, like others, wants to know why officials haven't been searching for bodies.
"When there's a disaster, everyone focuses on it for a week, then everyone forgets," Huber said. "That's the problem right now. Why are there not more people out there looking for bodies?"
"I have people saying to me 'Do you know where my daddy is?' " she said. "All I can say is 'don't give up,' but now we are going on three weeks."
On Thursday, search teams will begin the first organized search in five "hot spots": debris piles across the Bolivar Peninsular, according to The Associated Press.
Chambers County Judge Jimmy Sylvia has been asking for help from the governor's office since the hurricane hit, according to CNN affiliate KTRK-TV.
"I don't have a clue why it is taking so long. You know, it really should be Galveston County pushing, because those are Galveston County folks that would be up here in my county," Sylvia told KTRK-TV.
State Rep. Craig Eiland told KTRK-TV that the delay will be investigated.
Now, two weeks after the storm hit, the phones at the call center are steadily ringing.
Walcutt said the center and the Red Cross are continuing to crosscheck their lists.
Between calls from the public and checking with shelters, Walcutt said, 317 people have been found and taken off the list, including 51 on Wednesday alone.
The Laura Recovery Center Web site lists the names of the missing along with their towns and photos. On the site, family and friends can create their own missing person fliers and upload those photos.
The center is working with local authorities, who are in some cases going to knock on the doors of the missing, Walcutt said.
For Huber, the struggle won't end until all the answers are in.
"They say Lord won't give you more than you can handle, but right now it's getting pretty close," she said.