As the tropics heat-up in October it appears our hero, Dr. Gray, made an astounding forecast. We may have not one, but two TS in the Caribbean at roughly the same time. When did that last happen? Speaking of anomolies, when did the last TS form in the eastern Caribbean, south of 15 N, and then immediatly begin to recurve? Very unusual.
For those of you (KF!) who don't like Dr. Gray's climatological based forecasting, how is it any different thatn "30 % Chance of Ioslated Showers, Somewhere Today" that we get from the NWS all the time?
HLG
1 comment:
An absolutely stunning forecast. Wow! I am impressed. Let's see, here is what their "October only" forecast said:
"Our October-only forecast calls for 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes [and] 1 major hurricane," they write on a document posted on the CSU Web site.
That's about twice as much overall activity as a normal October."
Twice as much... that would mean 1.5 named storms, 1 hurricane and a 0.5 major hurricane (not sure how you get that - unless you have a minor hurricane).
Anyway, please refer to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pastprofileAT.gif where you will see that normal October activity is 2 named storms, 1 hurricane and 0.5 major hurricanes.
So far we have four named storms, 1 hurricane and no major hurricanes. Wow. An amazing prediction by Colorado State. Let's all bow to their powerful forecast techniques and enriching experience.
From the other side of the world.
BB
Post a Comment