Sunday, August 31, 2008

GUSTAV STORM SURGE

Storm surge is starting to look a little ominous - fortunately Gustav is moving smartly to the northwest, so the water shouldn't build up too fast - but the wave heights are high off shore, and the fetch is long enough. So we shall see. Low tide in the Mississippi Sound is around 6:30 am - which is the time Gustav might come ashore. So that should reduce the amount of surge in the area. It won't be pretty though.

Oil rigs still reporting wind obs. Ram-Powell - Viosca Knoll 936 at 29.06N and 88.09W (very close to buoy 42040) is reporting 50 kts sustained. The Oil and Chemical industry will certainly take a hit with the storm.

Winds here are up to 10 kts or so. Starting to feel the main feeder bands and have been placed under a tornado watch - the main thing I'm worried about right now. Should be an interesting evening. Stay safe!

BB

Gustav Arrives Pass Christian/Delisle, MS


31 August - 1800 local (CST) - First squall associated with Gustav has arrived in Pass Christian/Delisle MS. First gust measured with Kestrel 3000 at 15.9 kts before having to retreat inside from the heavy rain. Hail shaft evident to Southeast. Getting dark now so no more pictures till daybreak which is when we expect the heavier bands to begin coming in. gg

Storm Surge Probabilities


Current probability of at least 5 foot storm surge. They don't post the single-track runs from SLOSH yet, but this is the best available. Interesting at least.

HLG

Quotes from CNN International

"Gustav could strike the southern coast of Louisiana" (vs. the northern coast?)

"Biggest risk from this storm is storm surge AND flooding" (I thought storm surge had something to do with flooding?)

"Areas in New Orleans below 10 feet above sea level could be at risk" (what can you say since that is the entire city)

God Bless, stay high and dry!

HLG

Hanna models are all over the place


God Bless the modelers!

BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS...






Observations from 42003 - very close to the eye of Gustav, on the northeast side.

I have to admit, I didn't expect 30 ft wave heights from this storm. Definitely will have a role with the storm surge along the coast. Models are tracking a bit further to the west... but I'm really surprised by the wave heights - some of the highest we've seen from buoys in the Gulf.

BB

Motion to the right of forecast track continues!


Night-time visible images are showing the storm feasting on the Loop with plenty of time for that convection to completely wrap around the storm and probably become a Cat 5 today. The repeated motion of the eye to the right of track continues. The forecast of this west-ward jog is starting to look optimistic. The forward motion continues at a brisk pace. Hunker down Greater NOLA!

Also, very nice radar pass catching both Gustav and Hanna yesterday. The wind-field to the NE of Hannah is very impressive, and this could be in the Gulf late next week. OWW!

HLG

Gustav will pass nearly directly over Loop Current


I put the track (thanks NHC for real GIS data!) onto the current LSU weekly MCSST composite (because it is too hard to find the Navy version!). It looks like it will pass nearly directly over the loop today.

HLG

Saturday, August 30, 2008

I am so proud of the NHC!

Have you noticed the little "download gis data" button just about the forecast maps on the NHC site?

The number one request I got while at the NHC was to add a place where emergency managers and other in the multi-million-user GIS world could get REAL data. Not just "fuzzy" graphics (to paraphrase). They finally put it on there. When I was there every six hours I had to wait for the hurricane conference call, then get the latest crib sheet from the forecasters and make a photo-copy! Then we would run into the closet they hid the surge-prediction section, and re-enter the data by hand! This was 2005, NOT 1985!

PROGRESS!!!

HLG

You konw this is a bad storm when .....

You have the nightmare of Ray Nagin on the TV again. This time he is paraphrasing Sadam "Hussein" Hussein.

Nagin orders evacuation in face of 'mother of all storms'

by Leslie Williams, The Times-Picayune
Saturday August 30, 2008, 8:43 PM
Warning that Hurricane Gustav is the "mother of all storms," Mayor Ray Nagin late Saturday ordered a mandatory evacuation of the West Bank of New Orleans for 8 a.m. Sunday and the east bank for noon.

"We want 100 percent evacuation," Nagin said. "It has the potential to impact every area of this metropolitan area."

Katrina had a footprint of about 400 miles, he said. Gustav is about 900 miles and growing, Nagin said.

"This is worse than a Betsy, worse than a Katrina," he said.

Todd Kimberlain, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center, said he's not sure what Nagin meant by the storm's footprint. However, he said, "if he means the area of most severe impact, it's not a fair comparison at this point."

"It's not possible to calculate the area of most severe impact at this moment," Kimberlain said, "so we can't make a comparison."

The mayor speculated that Gustav is so fierce Baton Rouge likely will experience 100 mph winds.

"You need to be scared and you need to get your butts out of New Orleans right now," Nagin said.

Nagin said he expects Gustav to "punch holes in the Harvey Canal," which could cause the West Bank to become a bathtub.

The West Bank has 8-foot to 10-foot-high protection, he said. Gustav's storm surge may be 15 to 24 feet high.

Anyone who opts to remain in New Orleans "will be on your own," Nagin warned, adding that services will not be available.

Because of the potential severity of Gustav, Nagin said the city would continue to operate 17 bus pick-up sites in New Orleans until midnight Saturday. The service, designed to evacuate residents who lack transportation or need assistance, will resume Sunday at 6 a.m.and continue until at least noon.

Wind damage like Hurricane "Andrew"

Hurricane "Gustav" just passed Cuba, and just barely noticed. It can't be good in western Cuba this morning. This brings up a reminder that "Katrina" was a surge event primarily, due to her unusually large size. This appears to not only be a surge threat, but if it comes in as a Cat 4 (or stronger, since the intensity models continually stink), we will probably see wind damage like south Dade county saw from "Andrew", some of which could get the western blurbs of NOLA.

HLG

Good Oceanography and Hurricane Report from FOXnews!

Gustav Headed for Current That Fuels Big Storms
Friday, August 29, 2008



Aug. 28, 2008:

WASHINGTON — The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It's called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina.

Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly.

If Gustav hits the Loop Current and lingers in that hot spot, watch out. If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably won't be much of a name to remember.

The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government's hurricane research division.

Lynn "Nick" Shay, University of Miami meteorology and oceanography professor, flew over the gulf Thursday in a federal hurricane research plane to measure the Loop Current. He saw Gustav's forecast track going "right down the throat" of it.

"That's kind of the scary part here," Shay said. "You look at this and say, 'Boy I hope this thing doesn't really explode,' but it probably will."

It happened in 2005. "Katrina went over the Loop Current and intensified rapidly," said Mark DeMaria, a Colorado-based expert on hurricane strength with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Then less than a month later a weak tropical storm named Rita followed Katrina into the Loop Current. Thirty hours later it was a Category 5 monster.

Both Katrina and Rita later weakened — which often happens— to Category 3 storms by landfall.

In the last several years, meteorologists have focused more attention on the Loop Current, which is only a couple of hundred miles long and not even 100 miles wide. The evidence linking it to the worst storms is beyond circumstantial, Shay said.

What's crucial is the depth of warm water in the current — several hundred feet — because it provides continuous high-octane fuel for a storm. Hurricanes use the heat from the water to grow stronger and in the process they churn up cooler water from below, which then slows or stops the feeding process. But in the Loop Current, the deeper water is also warm and it further feeds the storm.

The Loop Current constantly shifts, growing and shrinking and sending out smaller eddies. It's now starting to contract, but not soon enough.

On Friday, the National Hurricane Center warned: "Gustav is expected to be a large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern gulf coast."

The one hopeful sign is that on his hurricane flight Thursday, Shay saw a pool of extra cool water north and west of the Loop Current. That could help counteract what he fears will be rapid strengthening

One of Larger Cape Verde Circulations in Years

SENTINELS OF THE SEA



000
WTNT43 KNHC 300857
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO RUN AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION AND NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS OVER IT. THIS MEANS THAT THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAXED YET. A NOAA BUOY...41043...HAS BEEN EXTREMELY USEFUL IN TRACKING THE CYCLONE. IT HAS DEPICTED THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1002 MB.

"GOD BLESS NOAA'S SEA BUOYS"
"SEN - TI - NELS OF THE SEA!"
"STAND BE - HIND THEM"
"AND BE GUIDE - ED BY"
"THEIR NON-PO LIT TIC CAL OBS!"
(Sing to tune of God Bless America - and shout out to HLG)

BB

Last few visibles looking to the right of track?

Do you think these are wobbles in the motion? Looks to be consistantly to the right of track. What do you think?

HLG

Ooops Did we say Cat 1? We meant Cat 2

"DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE" NHC (update 10 minutes after previous scheduled update) WTF?

HLG

Killer surge setting up for western Cuba

"COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD." - NHC

HLG

Friday, August 29, 2008

Best Graphical Web-site-based Hurricane Info

At least that I have found. Check it out, and be sure and play with the graphical tools for the storm prediction, model runs, etc. This gets the HLG Official GIS Stamp of Approval!

http://www.stormpulse.com/

hl GUSTAV

All weather geeks should check out this Miami Herald expose

"Breakdowns" at NHC and NOAA during hurricane season. Very interesting reading.

http://www.miamiherald.com/multimedia/news/forecast/blindeye_final/index.html

Gustav about to undergo rapid intensification?

The satellite data is very impressive to me this morning, especially for a storm which just crossed the mountains of Jamaica. Does anyone else get the impression that Gustav (who appears to be forming an eye for the third time) is about to undergo some rapid pressure falls/intensification?

HLG

Gas was under 2 dollars before "K"?

Something like that, but it seems cheap now. The current forecast of "GUSATV" is nearly a worst case for Port Fouchon, where the COUNTRY's ONLY deep water (i.e. where the Super-duper tankers unload) is located. This could knock out a significant portion of US production capability for many, many weeks, if the forecats holds. Not to mention Grand Isle, which is currently on the strong-side, and there may not be much left if this track holds.

Have a nice Labor Day Weekend!

HLG (I blame what I blame)

Thursday, August 28, 2008

WHAT I THINK I THINK



Station 42058 - Central Caribbean - about 200 miles southeast of Gustav.

I had an epiphany today around 4:00 pm. It was at that moment when I remembered that I was a meteorologist - and that I should enjoy hurricanes, not fear them. Why wouldn't I want to go through another storm? I went through Katrina's eye - and it was incredible.

Yes - the house, the family, the car, the possessions, even that damn dog - they will have to experience the wrath and aftermath of a hurricane. The days and weeks after Katrina are moments that I never want to experience again.

Yet, weather phenomena is what I live for, and experiencing the shock and awe of earth's weather biggest weather maker should be something I want to see.

So, I am at peace now - and ready to experience whatever life throws at me.

Namasté

BB

"Tropical Storm" GUSTAV Has an Eye


Again!

Have mercy on the Florida EMA


How would you like to be the Florida EMA head and wake up to see this graphic this morning?

HLG

Cantore NOT in Biloxi!

Jim Cantore not in South Mississippi

By MELISSA M. SCALLAN - mmscallan@sunherald.com

ILOXI -- The widespread rumor that meteorologist Jim Cantore is in Biloxi is just that, a rumor.

People from Jackson County to Hancock County have heard that Cantore, who works for The Weather Channel, checked into the IP Resort and Casino.

However, officials with the 24-hour weather station said Wednesday that Cantore is in the Atlanta office and isn't expected to be in Biloxi

Navy Hurricane Track is Vastly Superior


I vote that we only use the official Navy hurricane tracking chart from now on. It is just a vastly superior map to the consumer junk the NHC insists on using.

HL GUSTAV

Not a Depression? (95L)


I am SO confused!

Acutally I don't believe it is JUST a depression. This appears to be TS "HANNA" to me.

HLG

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

"Open Wave"??


Commentators recently describe "GUSTAV"'s appearance as an "Open Wave".

I think they have been high on VIPER, or something. This looks like a nice, compact little storm, with an improving CDO near the COC.

Has anyone noticed the models do not handle the small circulations as well as the larger ones? Is this a known bias?

Also, it is ALEXANDRA! Not Alexandria. Please show respect to all Weather Godesses!

H L GUSTAV

Due to Iraq, Afghanistan and Gustave, US Sends Coast Guard to Tangle Russian Bear

U.S. aid arrives in tense Georgia




(CNN) -- Russia defended its recognition of two independence-seeking Georgian provinces as a U.S. ship carrying aid docked in Georgia on Wednesday.


The U.S. Coast Guard cutter Dallas arrives in the Georgian port of Batumi.

1 of 2 The U.S. Coast Guard cutter Dallas bypassed its original destination, the Georgian port of Poti, which is controlled by Russian troops still in the country despite a cease-fire deal to end conflict between the two countries.

The Dallas carried 80 pallets with more than 76,000 pounds of relief supplies, the U.S. Sixth Fleet public affairs office said in a statement, including hygiene items, food, milk and juices.

The cutter is delivering aid as part of a larger U.S. program that has delivered supplies worth at least $20 million to Georgia.

More than 50 U.S. military flights have also landed in Georgia. And a U.S. Navy ship -- the USS McFaul -- recently arrived at the Batumi port with 155,000 pounds of bottled water, milk, baby food and other items, the U.S. Navy said.

The United States says it has also delivered sanitation facilities, tents, bedding and dry and canned goods to Georgia.

Russia has criticized the U.S. program to deliver $20 million of aid to Georgia. One general labeled the move "devilish," according to The Associated Press. Watch how aid ship has upset Russians »

Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia Tuesday raised the stakes in a stand-off between the West and Moscow over the future of the provinces and of Georgia.

Russian military entered Georgia proper from the provinces in early August after Georgian troops attacked separatists in South Ossetia. Russia called it an extension of their peacekeeping duties. The West and Georgia called it an invasion.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia "was not a step taken lightly, or without full consideration of the consequences."

In an op-ed that appeared Tuesday night on The Financial Times Web site, he said Georgia was fighting a "vicious war on its minority nations." Watch Medvedev explain his reasoning to CNN »

Don't Miss
Analysis: A new Cold War -- or more hot air?
Cheney trip to Georgia planned before crisis
Special: Georgia Crisis
Russia and the Caucasus region are jumbles of nationalities and, Medvedev said "relations between nations living 'under one roof' need to be handled with the utmost sensitivity."

He said after communism fell, Russia "reconciled itself to the 'loss' of 14 former Soviet republics, which became states in their own right" and observed that around 25 million ethnic Russians "were left stranded in countries no longer their own."

One of those former Soviet republics is Georgia, which "immediately stripped its 'autonomous regions' of Abkhazia and South Ossetia of their autonomy," he said.

He said Russia had enforced peace but "fears and aspirations of the South Ossetian and Abkhazian peoples" lingered because Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili talked of rearming his troops and "reclaiming 'Georgian territory.'"

Medvedev said the West ignored "the delicacy of the situation."

Germany on Wednesday added its criticism to Russian recognition of the two republics.

Chancellor Angela Merkel told Medvedev by telephone the move violated international law and the six-point Russian-Georgia cease-fire agreement brokered on behalf of the European Union by France.

Merkel said: "The continued Russian presence in Georgia outside of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, for example, in Poti, represents ... a significant violation of the six-point plan agreement."

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said: "We cannot accept these violations of international law, of accords for security and cooperation in Europe, of United Nations resolutions, and the taking ... of a territory by the army of a neighboring country," the Associated Press reported.

Moscow has been infuriated by U.S. plans to build a missile defense shield in eastern Europe. It said an agreement signed last week to base missiles in Poland would open that country up to an attack in the event of conflict.


South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from Georgia during civil wars in the 1990s. Russia strengthened ties with them after the U.S. and much of Europe recognized the independence of the Serbian province of Kosovo earlier this year, a move that Moscow had warned against.

The Bush administration has insisted that both Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain part of Georgia, a U.S. ally that is seeking NATO membership

Enough Hurricanes. News from the Exciting World of Commercial Aviation!

26 Hospitalized After Ryanair Jet's Midair Plunge, Emergency Landing
Tuesday, August 26, 2008

E-Mail Print Share:

Reuters


File: A Ryanair aircraft comes into land at East Midlands Airport, central England.
PARIS — A Ryanair plane made an emergency landing in central France after the cabin suddenly depressurized, French officials and the Irish carrier said Tuesday. Up to 26 people were hospitalized.

The Boeing 737 was carrying 141 British and 27 Spanish passengers plus six crew members from Bristol, England, to Gerona, Spain, before the urgent landing in Limoges, officials in the Haute-Vienne region said.

The "de-pressurization incident" caused the oxygen masks on board to deploy, a Ryanair statement said.

French officials said 26 people were hospitalized and suffered mostly from chest, nose and ear pain. Ryanair's statement said 16 people "complaining of ear ache" were taken to hospital.

The French officials said the plane lost 26,200 feet of altitude in five minutes before the landing, which the pilot requested.

"I think it's fair to say there was muffled consternation in the first few seconds," passenger Pen Hadow told Sky News. "People were clearly suffering with the shock of it, but on the whole ... people had a stiff upper lip about it and they were resigned to their fate. They were properly terrified.

"They thought they were going to meet their maker. And that's not an exaggeration," Hadow added.

Ryanair said it brought in a second flight to carry 147 remaining passengers on to Barcelona's airport, where it landed early Tuesday.

Spain's airport authority, AENA, said the second flight arrived in Gerona around 4:20 a.m. In the end, 125 passengers were on this plane, an AENA official said. She declined to comment on Spanish news reports that the rest refused to get on and said they would travel to Gerona by road.

Gerona's airport has recently been closing from midnight to 6 a.m. because of construction work, but in this case the airport opened to receive the Ryanair flight, the AENA official said.

PROPER FLOWER CUTTING

Proper Flower Cutting
Keeps Rose Bushes Blooming

Ed Perry
Farm Advisor
http://cestanislaus.ucdavis.edu/files/179.htm

As I enter my office each morning this time of the year, I’m greeted by a row of rose bushes in full flowering glory. Chances are you have been enjoying your own roses as well, maybe just admiring them in the garden, or cutting a few for the house. While most people probably don’t think much about it, the way you cut roses helps determine your plant’s future blooming and growth patterns.

If you look at a hybrid tea rose or any other rose plant that has one bloom to a stem, you’ll notice that the leaves nearest the flowers have three leaflets, or sometimes even one leaflet. As you look down the stem you will come to leaves that have five leaflets. The bud just at the base of a five-leaflet leaf usually has the greatest potential of developing into another strong, flower-bearing stem. With a pair of sharp pruning shears, cut the stem about a quarter-inch above the first five-leaflet leaf; the bud at the base of the leaf now becomes dominant, with ample sunlight and sufficient energy to develop into a flower-bearing stem. Often, the plant has enough energy to stimulate a second bud at the base of the next leaf down the stem, and two flowering stems grow where there had been one. Certain types of roses, like floribundas and polyanthas, bloom in clusters. You can keep these blooming by cutting off the faded clusters to a point a quarter-inch above a five-leaflet leaf.

Try not to cut much over a quarter-inch above the leaf when you’re cutting flowers; a long stub often dies back and looks unsightly. On the other hand, if you cut less than a quarter-inch, you risk injuring the new bud at the base of the leaf.

If you are interested in growing large blooms for flower arranging, allow the first bud to grow at the top of the stem. If any other flower buds begin to grow below this main bud, pinch them off when they are about a quarter of an inch long. With all of the stem’s energy going into a single flower, the remaining rosebud will grow larger than normal.

As you cut flowers, also be on the lookout for suckers, which are fast growing shoots that arise from the rootstock at the base of the plant. Suckers are usually very vigorous, and can outgrow the top of the plant unless you control them. Cut off suckers close to the rootstock whenever you see them. You may need to carefully pull soil away from the base of the plant to cut the sucker close to the rootstock. Shoots that grow above the bud union are not suckers, and should be allowed to grow.

Keep in mind that when you cut flowers, you also remove foliage that feeds the plant. Too much cutting can weaken plants, especially newly planted or old rose bushes that are low in vigor. If you have a plant that is growing poorly, stop cutting until the plant’s vigor improves. Also remember that a good irrigation, fertilization and pest control program keeps rose plants growing and blooming their best.

***************************************************************

Thank you Ed. I've given up forecasting.

BB

Is there any hope for NOLA?

Katrina Victims' Illiteracy Hampers Recovery
Wednesday, August 27, 2008

E-Mail Print Share:

NEW ORLEANS — Marsha Williams had always hesitated when mail arrived from the government. After Hurricane Katrina, she began to fear the letters.

One warned that her apartment building could be shut down because of unrepaired storm damage. There were legal notices and forms. What did they all mean? At age 51, Williams was embarrassed she could not read much more than her own name and address.

Three years after Katrina, residents of New Orleans are still buried in a blizzard of government paperwork. But for thousands of storm victims seeking federal aid, the challenge is made more difficult by a little-known obstacle: More than 40 percent of the city's adults lack the literacy skills to comprehend basic government forms. And recovery programs have done little to ease the burden.

"I didn't get a lot of school when I was a child. I guess they didn't have enough to go around," said Williams, who is learning to read in a YMCA adult-education course.

Rachel B. Nicolosi, program director for the Literacy Alliance of Greater New Orleans, estimates that as many as 100,000 people from New Orleans may have had assistance delayed, or they never applied for help at all, because they could not read the documents.

"It's a paramount issue. The rules are almost indecipherable for everyone," said Davida Finger, a staff attorney for Loyola University's New Orleans College of Law, which has helped 1,000 people seek rebuilding aid, nearly all of whom had trouble understanding the forms.

Katrina destroyed 27 adult literacy programs when it came ashore in 2005. Only 13 programs survived, so Nicolosi and others have asked for government rebuilding agencies to write aid forms in a "plain language" format that is already used for some federal health and safety documents.

But some government officials say too much plain language can leave out vital information.

"I concede the point that those who are functionally illiterate, they would have challenges with any form," said Brian Sullivan, a spokesman for the Department of Housing and Urban Development. He said the agency has trained all of its 37 staff members in New Orleans to help "those with literacy disabilities."

The National Adult Literacy Survey indicates that 25 percent of U.S. adults read at the lowest functional level, meaning, for example, that they can locate an expiration date on a driver's license but cannot fill out most motor-vehicle forms.

In New Orleans, that figure is 44 percent, according to the survey, which is performed every decade and was last conducted in 2003.

The cornerstone of neighborhood rebuilding efforts is the $10.3 billion Road Home program, which asks participants to review dozens of documents and sign 18 final legal papers before aid is approved.

One paragraph reads: "Homeowner(s) agree(s) to the filing of certain covenants to run with the land on the property for which this Grant is awarded requiring generally as follows: flood insurance to be maintained if located in Special Flood Hazard Area and restraints on use, occupancy and alienation of the Property. The actual covenants are contained in the instrument to be executed by Homeowner(s) and recorded in the land records of the parish where the Property for which this Grant is awarded and located."

Christina Stephens, spokeswoman for the Louisiana Recovery Authority that oversees the Road Home program, said the papers are legal documents, which is "why they sound so serious." But she acknowledged that "it's equally important that people can understand what they are signing."

Since the program was created in 2006, it has held at least 22 training sessions for staff members specifically designed to help illiterate applicants, Stephens said.

Government officials "know who their audience is, and they should write for them," said Annetta Cheek, a spokeswoman for the Plain Language Action and Information Network, a group of federal employees who advocate for clearer language in government communications.

Cheek said the group asked three plain language "translators" to examine the 18 pages of Road Home documents. After several hours, the team was still uncertain of the program's requirements, even though two of the participants were lawyers.

The papers were so confusing that Thomas Wright drove three hours from Mississippi to talk to Road Home outreach workers.

Wright, a retired auto mechanic, graduated from high school in the 1950s and later took shop classes to get his mechanics' license. But when it came to the Road Home forms, he had to enlist friends.

"I needed help from educated people," said Wright, who is black and remembers the segregation of the city school system.

"We got your second-hand books, with half the pages torn out," he said.

Wright applied to Road Home a year ago, trying to rebuild a house in the Upper 9th Ward that was flooded with 8 feet of water. But his application remains stalled; program switchboards refer him back to the forms.

Wright was especially frustrated by one of the most important documents — the highly verbose form that asks applicants to choose among three options: stay and rebuild, sell their home to the state and relocate within Louisiana, or sell their home to the state and leave Louisiana.

"You got 1,500 words (on a form) that could be said in 500," Wright said.

Wright's generation is not the only one that's struggling. According to the Louisiana Department of Education, 42 percent of students who graduated from high school in New Orleans in 2004 had "unsatisfactory" English scores. And more than one in 10 students dropped out of high school.

Henry Lee Burton, 28, said he left school in the ninth grade to take a job and care for his diabetic mother, who died in the months after Katrina.

Though he evacuated to Houston after the storm, he never applied for the FEMA relocation assistance. He said neither he, his mother, nor sister, read well enough to understand the requirements.

Burton, who earns $24,000 a year as a Wal-Mart tire shop worker, said the only assistance he received was a $3,500 payout from his renter's insurance. Two years passed before he could gather up the courage to go to the office and tell his agent he did not fully understand letters from the insurance company.

Now he has a different plan: to learn to read well enough so he does not need help.

"It's something I've always wanted to do and something I need to do," he said. "You really can't depend on the government anyway. You have to do it yourself."

Let's Review "FAY", Shall We?


When TS "FAY" (somehow was never a TD) formed over Santo Domingo, we were told that the models were all in agreement, and "FAY" would be a well behaved storm. Well the wind history doesn't show that. Even when it was happening no one forecast the right turn at Florida, the sudden halt, and the complete westward turn with sudden (miraculous?) dissipation.

Take all models with a grain of salt. Use your powers of observation, and load up the camper!

What is beginning to bother me with "GUSTAV" is that forecast, after forecast, are now showing a major hurricane in the north-central Gulf, sometime Labor Day weekend. The longer this trend persists, I don't care what Viper says!

Time to whip it out and lay it on the line gents (and geekettes). I am going with a western LA landfall, of a Cat-4 storm, sometime Labor Day evening. Make a forecast, or start a new blog on flower cutting!

H L GUSTAV

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

GUSTAV? ET TU GUSTAV?



GFDL model moved farther west - and now has the Gulf oil patch and Houston in its path. UKMET shows an even farther swing to the west, as does the ECMWF. GFS - what the hell is going on with the GFS? It has a tropical shower over Florida. NOGAPS - landfall in Florabama.

Anyone have a coin?

BB

Watching and Praying

The latest model run has pulled back toward the mouth of the river.....This is clearly not a good trend....unless however, the trend to the north and east continues. Getting scary and I will be praying. Those inclined to believe in divine intervention may want to do the same. gg

Oil Already Going Up

Oil prices rise on worries about Hurricane Gustav
By ALEX KENNEDY – 2 hours ago

SINGAPORE (AP) — Oil prices in Asia rose Tuesday on concerns Hurricane Gustav may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

"It's hard to predict where Gustav will strike," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "But the market is reacting to it and edging up some."

Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 58 cents at $115.69 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 52 cents overnight to settle at $115.11 a barrel.

Gustav became a hurricane Tuesday as it approached Haiti's southern coast, and is also on track to hit Cuba.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the hurricane's maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph (130 kph).

Haitians were told to prepare for evacuations as the storm formed Monday in the Caribbean. Haiti upgraded storm warnings to hurricane warnings along much of its coast as Gustav closed in from the south.

Forecasters said storm preparations in Haiti should be rushed to completion and that floods and landslides were possible across its southern peninsula. The forecasts suggested Gustav's eye could pass near the capital of Port-au-Prince, home to nearly 3 million people.

Traders worried that the hurricane could head into the Gulf, where there are many oil drilling platforms. The storm was centered about 130 miles (210 kilometers) south-southeast of Port-au-Prince and was moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 kph).

Keeping a lid on oil's gains was a stable dollar. Oil prices typically fall when the dollar strengthens as investors buy commodities as a hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency. The euro fell to $1.4686 on Tuesday while the dollar gained to 109.74 yen.

"Lately, there has been a very strong correlation between oil futures and the U.S. dollar," Shum said.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 0.91 cent to $3.16 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained 0.87 cent to $2.86 a gallon. Natural gas futures increased 12.5 cents to $7.95 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, October Brent crude rose 26 cents to $114.28 a barrel.

Bob "Hussein" Breck

Can kiss my hairy white butt!

I will speculate on whatever I want on MY BLOG!

Also, I did nothing but post the OFFICIAL NHC forecast, which clearly points to the NGC! Maybe the TV weather jerk-offs should just let the pros at the NHC handle the official forecast!

H L GUSTAV

Miami Finally Found Hurricane "GUSTAV"


I didn't think it was this hard, but they found it. Apparently the eye in the visible wasn't enough yesterday, but after two plane rides (yee haaa) they found it!

The forecast looks very, very bad for the North Central Gulf. Someone is going to get a major hurricane. First for US since "K & R" and it is going to same general area. Life is NOT fare afterall. Dad was right. :(

H L G (Please prepare evacuation plans, that don't involve race riots at SSC)

Monday, August 25, 2008

Not a Good Katrina Anniversary Present



One minute the GFDL model has a CAT 5 in the Gulf, the next minute it has tropical showers in Florida. The 18Z run tonight has a CAT 4 in the central Gulf - two days after the anniversary of Katrina. It is almost diurnal in its hurricane intensity forecasts...

Implications - oil and gas platforms, central Gulf Coast recovery, New Orleans levees. Larster said he didn't like this one, the name Gustav, as soon as he saw it. Almost like Katrina's boyfriend. Let's hope it dies in Cuba and never returns.

BB

"HPEFTD"

I am issuing a High Probability Eye Formation in Tropical Depression!

"Gustav is a border-line hurricane at this writing. Where is Da Plane!!

Da plane

da plane ...

(Can't take off today, due to hurricane condition 1 in Caribbean Sea!)

H L Gustav

Token "Tropical Depression"


It looks like there was concern in Miami that they may have a hurricane on their hands, so they rushed on TD message out before the plane gets there and find a rapidly strengthening TS "GUSTAV".

I see from the track there is a rift with the "Sentinels of the Sea" and the official track. The "Head" sentinel predicted the storm would drive due-west, but the South Flordians disagree. H L GUSTAV

Rainy Night in Georgia!

Fay threatens Atlanta flooding, tornadoes
By MIKE MORRIS

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Monday, August 25, 2008

The remnants of Tropical Storm Fay, after skirting the Gulf coast and dumping heavy rain across South Georgia, have turned to the northeast and are expected to bring torrential rainfall to North Georgia beginning Monday evening.

The National Weather Service has posted a flash flood watch for the northwest corner of the state, beginning at 4 p.m. Monday and continuing through Tuesday night. The watch will be in effect for an area generally west of I-85 that includes most of metro Atlanta.

The rain that fell across metro Atlanta on Sunday — produced by the fringes of Fay as it tracked across north Florida — was “just a prelude of things to come,” a Weather Service statement said.

“Monday night has the potential to be much worse with thunderstorms, very heavy rain and possible tornadoes.”

Fay, downgraded to a tropical depression, was centered in southwest Mississippi Monday morning, but was expected to be in central Alabama by Monday night, then track slowly into Tennessee by Wednesday.

“This track will put North Georgia in the very wet right quadrant of this system,” the Weather Service said.

Forecasters said heavy rain and thunderstorms rotating around the east side of Fay would spread into west-central Georgia by midday Monday, and further north by evening.

“Any thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfally and potentially several inches of rain,” the Weather Service said.

Up to five inches of rain is expected across parts of North and Central Georgia by Tuesday afternoon, forecasters said. The rain could continue for much of the week, with totals of 10 inches possible.

Heavy rain Sunday night in Cherokee County combined with a leaking roof to send several ceiling tiles crashing to the floor at the Canton police department. No injuries were reported, and a police spokeswoman said no records were damaged.

The Monday morning commute began messy on wet metro roadways, with early crashes jamming I-285 and I-20 in south DeKalb County.

The forecast for metro Atlanta calls for a near 100 percent chance of rain through Tuesday night, with highs in the mid- to upper 70s and lows around 70.

Wednesday will be cloudy, with a 30 percent chance of rain and highs in the low 80s. After a mostly sunny and dry Thursday, more rain is possible Friday through Sunday, the Weather Service said.

The chance of rain is 30 percent Friday through Sunday, with weekend highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows around 70.

STDS (7/G?)

000
WONT41 KNHC 250835
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM THE
NETHERLAND ANTILLES INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

"Sentinels of the Sea"

Last time I felt so patriotic about "Sentinels of the Sea" I found myself enlisted in the USCG Reserve for 8 years!

GOD BLESS NOAAS SEA BUOYS

SEN - TI - NELS OF THE SEA!

STAND BE - HIND THEM

AND BE GUIDE - ED BUY

THEIR NON-PO LIT TIC CAL OBS!

(Sing to tune of God Bless America)

HLG

PS: Has anyone looked at the WV loop of "FAY"? The dry slug of air which killed the western-side precip on over the weekend, wrapped completely around, and now appears to have been completely consumed. Too cool!

94L is Clearly TS "GUSTAV"

Go back a week and 94L was astutely pointed out by HLG as much more interesting that a "Low Probability of Formation" area, as some folks in Miami had it. "Spinning like a drunken sailor" was the observation, in fact. So, now the question is, will "GUSTAV" be a hurricane before the Miamians can get their airplane into it, issue one TD forecast, then follow with a 1A forecast as TS/Hurricane?

HLG

Reports from a NOAA Buoy (BOY?)

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED...AND REPORTS
FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

OMG - Who Does He Think He Is

Guys - I just don't understand what is up with Bob Breck...... I remember a time when he was actually credible but he seems to be slowly losing his mind. Should we tip the other stations that the he dissing them in his blog???
Does FOX know about his blog..... and do they actually endorse it??? Just some thoughts to consider as we move forward and start discussing the next potential storm... It looks a bit scary but Bob didn't want to discuss it until Fay was gone. How responsible is that????
gg

COULD AL GORE PLEASE REPOND?

Just a quick cursory look at the weather headlines to the left of the FWSAAB blog - I found some interesting information:

From the Associated Press on the Farmers Almanac -

"Numb's the word," says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.

The almanac's 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder-than-average temperatures this winter, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.

"This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people," said almanac editor Peter Geiger.

From the Wisconsin Capital Times -

Weather: Be glad you're not in Superior
... possibility of patches of frost over the weekend in northwest Wisconsin near Superior and northeast Minnesota, reported the National Weather Service.

About the Mississippi Eye of Fay -

"Where the hell is the rain?" said one despondent weather watcher who told millions of blog viewers that "The biggest rick [sic] is going to be biblical inland flooding. When the rains start in MS (Sunday?) They may not be over until the NEXT Sunday, the way the official forecast looks. The rain generated flooding could be some of the worst that the region has seen in many, many generations. I don't intend this as hyperbole, but this storm if it stalls could be a major, major, disaster in MS/AL/LA, espeically [sic] this quick-to-rise rivers like the Tchtickkabuufooo [sic], and the Tchoctafalll [sic], etc.

BB

Saturday, August 23, 2008

I Have No Words for This

You know, I used to be a big fan of Bob Breck but read this link to his latest blog. Does he have a big head or what????

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/2008/08/fay-is-not-finished.html

I have no words....

gg

Clearly the Power of God (and/or Bob Breck?)

What else can explain the sudden turn to the north of "FAY"?  The mysterious by-pass of the still-recovering Gulf Coast from the massive tropical rainfall can't possibly have been the work of chance, can it?

H L G

Over 14 Inches around Tallahassee TODAY!

This is starting to look like TS "ALLISON"

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA

Tallahassee Rainfall Totals are going Off The Chart

Dopler estimating over 14 inches, just today!  This is very hilly terrain, and could be very, very bad.  Looks like they will end up over 2 feet of rain, over a large area!
 
H L G

Test Test Testing

Who is The Walrus?

Who is the Walrus?

Can't tell, since there is no signature. 
 
 

WHERE IS THE OCEANOGRAPHY???


Would it kill the NHC forecasters if they mentioned how ocean temperatures might affect Swirly Thing Fay? Looking at the sea surface temperature satellite obs, buoy obs and the NRL Hurricane Heat Potential maps (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/ias/hh3.ias.20080822.gif) one can see that:

1. Ocean conditions are not "ripe" to strengthen Fay if she moves over water, and
2. Northerly winds on the east side of Fay will promote upwelling off the Gulf Coast, thus limiting Fay's potential even more.

As John Lennon once said, "I am the oceanographer (woo), they are the oceanographers (woo), I am the walrus, Coo coo, kachoo."

BB

Official Forecast has "FAY" over Gulfport, MS in a few days. Hmmmm

The question now is will it be a weak TS, or a strengthening TS, near Cat 1 strength?  I think it is the latter, what do you all say?

Regardless MS downstate and upstate are in for a very wet ride!
 
Stay dry and safe my friends.
 
H L G

Friday, August 22, 2008

At Least Some "Northshore Officials", although unamed, have more sense than Bob "Huseyn" Breck!

"Some Northshore officials are issuing advisories calling on residents to
monitor Tropical Storm Fay's forecast over the weekend and prepare for
trouble.

According to the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Fay
is headed for Southeast Louisiana. The track shows Fay over Bogalusa on
Monday morning as a tropical depression.

In a news release, Slidell Police Chief Freddy Drennan and Slidell Mayor
Ben Morris say, "The storm is expected to bring heavy rains to the area
which could cause localized flooding. If you live in an area that is prone
to flooding it is asked that you take all necessary precautions to protect
your property. This may include moving vehicles and important papers to
higher ground."

The current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center calls for
Fay to move near the Louisiana - Mississippi line early Monday morning as
a tropical depression and a lot of rain."  WWL.com

"FAY"'s amazing geographical extent

Tropical Thing "FAY" now has tropical rain bands extended from between Florida and Cuba, north to the Georgia/Tennessee border.  Does anyone out there remember a circulation of this scale, moving this slowly?  I am beginning to believe in AL FREAKING GORE!!!
 
H L G
 

Tallahassee Radar is very Disturbing

It sure looks like the Center-of-Circulation (COC?) of "FAY", which does sound weird, is now moving, or reorganizing, towards the SW and the fetid waters of the Suwanee Bay.  Stay tuned fans.
 
H L GGGGGG
 
 

MPTF?

How can the MS Coast be under any "probability of formation" alert, when the cyclogenesis is over.   The storm is more than formed, and is clearly heading that way.  The biggest rick is going to be biblical inland flooding.  When the rains start in MS (Sunday?)  They may not be over until the NEXT Sunday, the way the official forecast looks.  The rain generated flooding could be some of the worst that the region has seen in many, many generations.  I don't intend this as hyperbole, but this storm if it stalls could be a major, major, disaster in MS/AL/LA, espeically this quick-to-rise rivers like the Tchtickkabuufooo, and the Tchoctafalll, etc.
 
 
H L G

FAY FAY - GO AWAY....


Pressures are falling along the West Coast of Florida. The image above shows wind speed, gust and barometric pressure from a Coastal Marine Weather Station located in Cedar Key, Florida. As Hot Lava (Geographer) pointed out - Fay developed another eye over Florida - thus proving that Florida is more water than land. Gainesville is within the eyewall right now (5:53 EDT). The coast of Mississippi has been placed under a Moderate Probability for Tropical Cyclone Formation (MPTCF) watch until Monday.

BB

Looks like an eye-wall trying to form OVER LAND!

Is anyone else amazed there isn't at least a Hurricane Watch out for the Panhandle of FL?

It looks like an eye-wall is trying to form OVER FL, and the center of circ will definitely get over water in the torpid Suwannee Bay of FL.
 
The winds are still at least 60 mph.  Why would you NOT put up a Hurricane Watch?


H L G
 
 

Will "FAY" be over MS one week from today?

I believe we will see a complete stall of "FAY" somewhere over Southern MS.
 
Does anyone else see this coming?

How much rain will South MS get from this event?

You must select in feet.
 
< 1 Foot?
 
1 Foot?

2 Feet?

> 3 Feet?
 
 
HLG
 

Appears NURI has fizzled

But at least the JTWC has balls in it's forecasting ability.  Something unseesn at NHC for a while!
 
H

L

G
 
 

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Oil Well Fire in Libya

Put this in your weather model and smoke it!
 
HLG
 
 

Is "FAY" truely tropical now?

I think the radar and satellite signature are begging the question.  Is "FAY" still a true tropical system?  It is appearing more and more like a genuine "Quasi-Tropical-Hybrid-Subtropical-Thingamajig?"

What says the brain pool?

H L G
 

Whole neighborhood is flooded, but at least I can watch Capt NICOLE!

In some places early Thursday the water was starting to recede. Port St. Lucie resident Jason Thompson, 25, was out walking his dog before dawn along streets that had been passable only by airboat for the past couple of days.

"I couldn't drive the car anywhere. Every neighborhood was flooded," Thompson said. "I've been kind of going crazy in the house for all of this time, but at least the cable didn't go out"
 
 

Hoooh RAH!

NHC Welcomes Back Stacy Stewart


Navy Reservist served in Iraq as part of troop surge

Image of Stacy Stewart, Hurricane Specialist at NHC By Dennis Feltgen, NOAA NHC Public Affairs Officer

After nearly 20 months of active duty, Commander Stacy Stewart has returned to his civilian job as a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami.

His biggest adjustment is returning to South Florida traffic. "I was used to driving down the middle of the road in a 15,000 pound Hummer with a .50 caliber machine gun and avoiding any kind of debris," he said.

A 35-year Navy reservist, Stewart was recalled to active duty in January 2007 to aid in the troop surge in Iraq. He was part of the Coalition Army Advisory Training Team, providing advice and mentorship to three Iraqi Army divisions at An Neumaniyah Military Base. That's 20,000 Iraqi soldiers. He also assisted in the training of three Iraqi brigades.

Stewart says his greatest challenge in Iraq was just staying alive during any of the 160 end to end convoy movements in which he participated. "Once you left the base, you were no longer safe, even for just a few miles." During a mission on March 27, 2008, with Stewart serving as the forward machine gunner behind ballistic glass on top of a Hummer vehicle, an IED (improvised explosive device) detonated alongside the vehicle. No one was killed, but Stewart's left leg and knee were injured in the blast. Fortunately, he only required four months of physical therapy and rehabilitation.

Stewart is very adamant about his tour in Iraq. "I was honored to be able to go to Iraq as part of the surge. I saw it from the inside and I am proud of what my four teams accomplished. Iraq is a much better place now."

What he missed most while away was his family and co-workers. Being on an Iraqi base, there was no Post Exchange, post office, or chaplain. A food convoy had to be picked up and escorted 80 kilometers to his base every two weeks. The weather was rather dull, too. "There is not much weather in Iraq, just a lot of sand, dust and 125 degree heat. Sometimes, the sea breeze arrived and knocked it down to 115 in southern Iraq."

Back at the National Hurricane Center, Stewart is rapidly catching up on some of the revised operational procedures used to distribute the routine hurricane products, as well as working with some of the new computer models. He is already back at work with his NHC colleagues and issuing tropical cyclone advisories

Typhoon "NURI" Forecast

This could be very, very bad ....
 
 

Big Typhoon News!!

It appears that the fantastic forecasters at JTWC (those note afraid to call a TD a TD, and who give great TC formation informatoin) are predicting that Typhoon "NURI" at around 95 KTS will go straight up the kazoo of Hong Kong harbor.  Stay tuned, this could be a very dramatic, devasting event.
 
HLG
 
 

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Kudos to the Webmistress????

Well, I was going to pass along a hearty thank you to the Webmistress for updating the look of the page and making it all spiffy looking. However, when I logged in to the site to post my blog, I noticed that it was a 'system' upgrade rather than 1 specifically for our blog. However, even though the Webmistress (aka Geekygirl) did not make the changes, I think we owe her a big round of applause once again for setting up this space for us to flex our genius ... Robert J. Moshier, Super Genius, I like the way that sounds.

I have a question for the Webmistress ... if folks post a comment via the email capability that Bill pointed out, do they post to a specific thread or just to the page??? The reason I ask is because it is somewhat difficult to follow a thread. I propose a rule to the Rules Committee (aka The Webmistress) for consideration, to somehow try to limit our discussions on a topic (e.g. TS Fay, aka The Joker) to 1 thread so it is easier to follow. My thinking is that if we post to a single thread, we all can follow along in the fun. Just a thought.

On a different subject, I stumbled across something scary last night ... I logged into bobbreck.com to see if he had anything to say about Fay (Yes Bill, I logged into ANOTHER blog) and guess what ... he's right here on blogger.com. You may want to check it out.

That's all for now ... I'm going back to one of the Fay threads to post a comment / question to my fellow Wx Studs (and the Babe) for discussion.

KF

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Special Marine Warning for Lake Okechobee!

Is there a "SMW" for "Oops we should've left the Hurricane WARNING (or at least Watch) up??

What is the SMW for an "Eye has just formed over you in a Tropical Storm!"???

HLG
 

Eye just formed over Lake Okechobee

AND the NHC dropped the Hurricane Watches all over Florida?

"Only" TS Warnings out now? 
 
Hmmmm
 
H L G
 

Scary One?

This could be a scary one--12Z GFS has Fay re-emerging just north of Tampa, drifting west, strengthening, moving to about south of Ft Walton/Pensacola, then being picked up back over Panama City/Apalachicola as a potentially significant storm.  Still feel somewhere from Mobile east, but all depends on the timing/strength of the next shortwave................

Spinning like a drunken sailor

And again, NOT a TD?

Gotta love the idiots who surf/sail/etc in a HURRICANE

<iframe src="http://edition.cnn.com/video/savp/evp/?loc=int&vid=/video/weather/2008/08/19/florida.kite.boarder.wfor" height="393" width="406" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

GFS etc.

At least the GFS has been trending back to east as far as the post-left turn north Gulf landfall (vic MOB yesterday to near Apalachicola/Cape San Blas this AM)--could even not make it back over gulf water if this trend continues...............awaiting 12Z run.  It's got a nice "eye" now over land; weird.
 
larster

Look at the Size of that COU (Cone of Uncertainty)

Looks like the NHC is heging their bets on the forecast.  That is one big 'ole COU Paw Paw!
 
HLG
 
 

Monday, August 18, 2008

EYW

Key West just went calm @1853Z--center is over them now--29.57 (1001.3) pressure--pk wind 37 kts.
 
larster

Fay

So three consecutive runs of GFS now have Fay stalling after passge over FL, recurving back into the Gulf--00Z had landfall near NEW, 06Z had landfall near PAM, and the 12Z near MOB..........stay tuned.
 
larster

Waterspouts Gone Bad

 
WFUS52 KKEY 181637 TORKEY FLC087-181700- /O.NEW.KKEY.TO.W.0001.080818T1637Z-080818T1700Z/  BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1237 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A  * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...   MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  * UNTIL 100 PM EDT  * AT 1230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A   VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PIDGEON KEY...OR 6 MILES   SOUTH OF MARATHON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.
 
larster

Fay

Interesting that the 06Z GFS has the trough by-passing Fay after passing over the FL peninsula, looping back over FL west into the eastern Gulf--waiting for the 12Z to see if this prediction persists.................
 
larster

Saturday, August 16, 2008

NOW WHAT???


Good thing - most of the models' forecasts are clustered, meaning that the environment that influences the storm is predictable over the next few days. IF, we went on the premise that the storm's center has been found and that Fay won't be too influenced by the topography of Cuba and Haiti, then we could say fairly confidently that Fay will reach the armpit of Florida.

Bad thing - we really don't know where the storm center is located and we don't really know what the topography will do to the storm. Heck, I half expected to see the storm downgraded to LPTF (low prob of tropical formation) this morning or major CAT 5 Hurricane (ala Bertha).

Got a quarter to flip?

BB

Friday, August 15, 2008

First shift to the west. Is it the last?

UGGGGHHHHHH!!!!

F Storm?

Note convective burst north of the island closer to the apparent surface circulation (see recent space-borne radar and San Juan radar) for the first time--deepest convection has been offset well to the south (mid-level circulation) until now--appears to trying to become more vertical of a system--have see if it persists.  Will now also have to contend with the mountains of Hispaniola--Puerto Rico has been disrupting it to some degree.  06Z GFS still shows Florida/Georgia as most probable (east or west coast??), but the track trend has been edging west for ~24 hours as the system has stayed on the weaker side (though certainly impressive visually).  Sooner it develops, the better for us as the trough over the northern gulf would pick it up earlier--conversely if it stays weak, it could just keep headed west--too early to say--will have to watch the model track trend through the day.  Waiting for next recon to see if we have a true surface low yet--last only found <5 knots west wind well south of PR (broad circulation).  Also watching the stuff behind it too--one of those could be a major.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

WHAT IS THIS?



The NHC classifies this as:

a. Tropical Depression
b. Tropical Storm
c. Hurricane
d. A Tropical Disturbance...

BB

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

LATEST GFS AND GFDL MODEL

Any WeatherStuds' comments on the latest GFS and GFDL model output? GFDL shows a tight circulation entering the Gulf of Mexico by 18 Aug.

Just wonderin'

BB

Friday, August 8, 2008

Early August Cold Front Pushes to the Gulf Coast

What is the word from the GW crowd?

Thank God for all of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere, or the ice would be heading south already!
 
HLG

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Persistant Circulation Has Nearly Crossed Atlantic

Is now nearing very warm waters of Southern Bahamas.  This circulation has been in existence for over a week now, and doesn't even merit a 'low probability"?  Keep an eye on this one.
 
H L G

Monday, August 4, 2008

FW: [Four Weather Studs and a Babe!] New comment on Let's re-visit the forecast process of "Edourd".

 
Pressures mildly rising all along coastal stations.  Recon did just confirm the NW jog that we're seeing in LIX radar over last ~4 hours...................hopefully just organizing...................don't see central pressure drops yet.
 
Larster

Let's re-visit the forecast process of "Edourd"

Yesterday at this time (3 August, 0400 PDT) the storm in the Gulf was officially a "Medium" area of formation probability.  So, we never even made it to "High".  Then the  "TD" was numbered, but it turns out it was a TS already.  So, now the storm is named.  Anyone confident it won't make hurricane before landfall, as currently forecast???

HLG
 
 

Sunday, August 3, 2008

IMPORTANT LESSON



This is not a tropical depression





This is a tropical depression.

See the difference.

BB

MODIS Catches Solar Eclipse over Arctic

Amazing pseudo-color image from MODIS of this week's solar eclipse over the Arctic Ocean. 
 
HLG