Good thing - most of the models' forecasts are clustered, meaning that the environment that influences the storm is predictable over the next few days. IF, we went on the premise that the storm's center has been found and that Fay won't be too influenced by the topography of Cuba and Haiti, then we could say fairly confidently that Fay will reach the armpit of Florida.
Bad thing - we really don't know where the storm center is located and we don't really know what the topography will do to the storm. Heck, I half expected to see the storm downgraded to LPTF (low prob of tropical formation) this morning or major CAT 5 Hurricane (ala Bertha).
Got a quarter to flip?
BB
2 comments:
It's difficult to say at this point given the fact that there is no disticnt center of circulation. However, my concern after looing at the IR loop this morning and the model spread is it APPEARS that the COC may have reformed south of Hispaniola a possibility mentioned in the previous discussion. IF this is the case, the the model initialization is wrong and the track should probably be further West. Today should be an interesting day for the WX bloggers as we start to see what Fay is made of. Based on the fact that she has survived the transit of Hispaniola relatively intact, I would say that she is a force to be reckoned with somewhere on the Northern Gulf Coast. So, anyone willing to go out on a limb yet and make a prognstication?
I saw the outburst of convection south of Haiti as well - but I can still see that the COC is in Haiti. Look at the middle level deck and you will see that it is pointing the center over land, even though the storms formed offshore. I think the NHC went with the same viewpoint since they put the center right on top of Haiti. Hopefully the convection will die down enough so we can see where the COC is at - but I don't think it jumped to the south.
08/20/08 @ 1200Z - Cat 2 - Apalachicola, Florida
BB
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