HLG. Since you said visibles, I'm assuming that you wrote this on Friday afternoon???? If so, it just posted this morning.
Looking at the IR this morning though, I have noticed a little bit of a wobble to the right of the forecast points, but am looking for a long term trend before I get too concerned.
NHC seems confident that there will be a bend to the left before landfall ... but I am concerned about the size and strength of the storm and whether it will respond to the building ridge that late in the game. Also noticed that the leftward bend was not reflected too much in the latest track. I'm hopeful that the forecast will verify, but remain on guard.
HLG and KF - I am seeing what you are talking about and my gut is it's not just a wobble but we will see what the next model runs do. We are much happier with the new and seemingly now consistent forecast track because at current projected intensity we would probably only experience TS force effects over here. However, in reading the discussion they say, and although it is not reflected in the forecast, it could easily reach Cat 4 strength during the period and the size of the wind field would then give us more trouble. With that kind of intensity it may not veer off much at landfall. Just my thoughts - We are also watching closely and dont think we will be able to rest much with such a closely predicted landfall until it makes landfall.
Definitely now after a bit more movement, the storm has moved to the right of the track. Also, it was upgraded to Cat 3 at 7am CST which makes the intensity forecast troublesome. I am a little more concerned now because if it keeps this motion, it would almost certainly affect the model output track and the official forecast back to the east a bit. :-( gg
I don't want to offend anyone, or stop anyone from being fixated from this storm... but tracking the storm so closely while it is still south of Cuba can't be healthy. The model projections will probably change another five or six times before the storm gets into the Central Gulf. Just prepare for the worst and hope for the best... and breathe... breathe...
5 comments:
HLG. Since you said visibles, I'm assuming that you wrote this on Friday afternoon???? If so, it just posted this morning.
Looking at the IR this morning though, I have noticed a little bit of a wobble to the right of the forecast points, but am looking for a long term trend before I get too concerned.
NHC seems confident that there will be a bend to the left before landfall ... but I am concerned about the size and strength of the storm and whether it will respond to the building ridge that late in the game. Also noticed that the leftward bend was not reflected too much in the latest track. I'm hopeful that the forecast will verify, but remain on guard.
KF
HLG and KF - I am seeing what you are talking about and my gut is it's not just a wobble but we will see what the next model runs do. We are much happier with the new and seemingly now consistent forecast track because at current projected intensity we would probably only experience TS force effects over here. However, in reading the discussion they say, and although it is not reflected in the forecast, it could easily reach Cat 4 strength during the period and the size of the wind field would then give us more trouble. With that kind of intensity it may not veer off much at landfall. Just my thoughts - We are also watching closely and dont think we will be able to rest much with such a closely predicted landfall until it makes landfall.
gg
Definitely now after a bit more movement, the storm has moved to the right of the track. Also, it was upgraded to Cat 3 at 7am CST which makes the intensity forecast troublesome. I am a little more concerned now because if it keeps this motion, it would almost certainly affect the model output track and the official forecast back to the east a bit. :-(
gg
I don't want to offend anyone, or stop anyone from being fixated from this storm... but tracking the storm so closely while it is still south of Cuba can't be healthy. The model projections will probably change another five or six times before the storm gets into the Central Gulf. Just prepare for the worst and hope for the best... and breathe... breathe...
BB
Geez, I thought BB was Buoy Boy's handle, but it appears that BB (Bob Breck) has joined the blog. Welcome Mr. Breck!!!
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