So, after reading the discussion, I have come to the conclusion that what the forecaster meant to say is "we don't have a clue. Concur that it must be a difficult forecast since they don't have a good fix on the center ... "somewhere over Hispaniola" ... at least that narrows it down. I was just fixin to pull up the Darth Vapor channel to see what I can see. Tough to tell whether this will be the last shift to the West, but I suspect it won't be. Needless to say, I will begin preparing this weekend just in case.
Question. Look at the GOMEX H20v loop. Is that an upper level low over western Cooba and wouldn't that tend to pull the cyclone on a more Westerly track? If so, wouldn't it stand to reason that as some of the models are suggesting, Fay will track further West before making a turn to the Northwest. And if that is the case, any eroding of the ridge will have less of an impact on the storm???
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So, after reading the discussion, I have come to the conclusion that what the forecaster meant to say is "we don't have a clue. Concur that it must be a difficult forecast since they don't have a good fix on the center ... "somewhere over Hispaniola" ... at least that narrows it down. I was just fixin to pull up the Darth Vapor channel to see what I can see. Tough to tell whether this will be the last shift to the West, but I suspect it won't be. Needless to say, I will begin preparing this weekend just in case.
Klingfree
Question. Look at the GOMEX H20v loop. Is that an upper level low over western Cooba and wouldn't that tend to pull the cyclone on a more Westerly track? If so, wouldn't it stand to reason that as some of the models are suggesting, Fay will track further West before making a turn to the Northwest. And if that is the case, any eroding of the ridge will have less of an impact on the storm???
Your thoughts gang???
Klingfree
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