FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
12 comments:
Looking at the radar, I've been wondering if this thing is going to hold together. Very difficult to pinpoint a center. However, I've been watching the obs out of the panhandle and SE AL for the past several hours and she is still kicking up a good breeze and as you mentioned, 20+ inches of rain in Tallahassee.
I half expected some strengthening if she reemerged over the northern Gulf, but as you pointed out in your Oceanography lesson, the ingredients just aren't there. I personnally don't think the center ever made it back over water after landfall #4 in FL, but it appears that there are several vortices rotating about the central circulation with none being dominant, so it is hard to tell.
I noticed on the blog links that Breck is advertising Viper again. However, I wonder how good the solution is if the initialization is off? Any of the models may be off now. I think it is all up to Nowcasting at this point and if live along the northern Gulf Coast and aren't watching this storm, then shame on you.
With whatever is left of the wind combined with some copius amounts of rain, I suspect we will get a lot of downed trees. The trees are still so weak from "K" that any good wind / rain storm brings a few down.
Any thoughts from the peanut gallery?
KF
I have an identity ... life is good.
Well, I've battened down the hatches so to speak. That activity consisted of picking up all of the loose items outside on the patio and making sure my chainsaw and fire gear is ready to go. As I stated in my last post, I suspect we will get some trees down, etc if we get the forecasted rain / winds.
Hoping to hear from HLG sometime this afternoon. I suspect that is HLG who posted the last couple of items, but he didn't sign his post.
It is obvious that we are seeing the power of God and his love of the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Swirly Thingy Fay is now forecasted to move north and west of the Gulf Coast. The all powerful Bob Breck and his Vipir "Oracle" knew many days ago that the area would be spared. I bow down to their greatness. All Hail Vipir....
Another God, Larster, forecasts that the area will be spared much wrath. Unfortunately, he grows tired of our blog - and its pedantic ways.
BB
Hey - I quite frankly am a tad disappointed that it hasn't at least rained. So a question out to all you weatherheads.... Are we going to get rain out of this at all down here on the coast.
By the way... Who is "Tropical"? Buoy Boy have you started a new blog?? The profile is private so we don't even have a link to "Tropical"s blog.
:-) gg aka webmistress
Tropical was me. I was trying to set up a gmail account as Klingfree so I could have an identity separate from the Weathergeeks, but I screwed up the first try. I figured this way I wouldn't have to remember to sign my comments which some of our posters forget to do (HLG).
It looks more and more like we won't get much out of this at all. The circulation is so broad and ill-defined now and as BB pointed out in his analysis of the H2Ov loop yesterday, it looked like the upper level trough digging in and the shear was the demise of our good friend Fay.
I think all eyes will, if they haven't already, turn to Invest 94L now approaching the islands. The models have been developing it into a major hurricane for the past couple of days, but I haven't checked it out today.
Winds are still kicking pretty good though. Most of the Buoys are reporting mid-20's with slightly higher gusts. When the CoC was a little better defined (relatively speaking, the lowest pressures were around Eglin / Crestview and they have been holding pretty steady for the past couple of hours. Looks like the circulation is broadening, but is still centered on the panhandle. I think she is slowly unwinding ...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TALLAHASSEE LGT RAIN 79 77 94 S8G22 29.77R
PANAMA CITY LGT RAIN 75 73 93 S8 29.63R
EGLIN AFB CLOUDY 73 73 100 SW8 29.53R FOG
CRESTVIEW LGT RAIN 76 75 97 S6 29.52R FOG
APALACHICOLA LGT RAIN 79 75 87 S16G24 29.73R
PENSACOLA LGT RAIN 74 72 93 W14 29.54R FOG
MARIANNA CLOUDY 77 73 87 SE14G23 29.65R
PERRY N/A 80 75 84 MISG 29.84R
CROSS CITY N/A 76 74 93 SE5 29.89R
JACKSONVILLE CLOUDY 76 73 91 E5 29.93F
$$
ALZ065>069-240200
...Southeast Alabama...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MOBILE CLOUDY 76 67 73 NW14G35 29.67F
DOTHAN LGT RAIN 76 73 91 SE17G26 29.66R
OZARK LGT RAIN 75 74 97 E17G29 29.59R
$$
Larster did say that I had better finish up mowing the back lawn because a "squall" was headed towards the house. Well, the "squall" was a brief shower - but I'll give him a "shout out" since it did "rain."
I'm not sure how HLG will take all these posts. He will end up having to respond to about seven of them. I guess he is still working the night shift.
One great thing about the storm is that Georgia is finally getting some rain - maybe they will stop trying to dry up Florida by hogging all the river water.
Thanks for the kudos KF - I appreciate y'all ignoring my Fay forecast from last weekend...
BB
Looking at the GFDL model for 94L, it develops into a hurricane and enters the mouth of the Gulf in four days. The long range GFS takes the storm into the center of the Gulf and then into the central Gulf Coast... which could be next weekend... which would be the anniversary of another storm three years ago.
God wouldn't be that cruel though.
So BB, where was the official, record 4th FL landfall? Did you get your Apalachicola or was it some obscure town north of there? I supppose if they say "x miles north of Apalachicola", we'll have to give it to you ... even if your forecast did verify a week late and 3 landfalls later. We may have to call a meeting of the rules committee to vote.
I too dread opening up the blog tomorrow knowing that I will have 1500 posts from HLG, and none of them will be signed.
Are you worn out from Fay or would you like to share some thoughts on 94L??? All of the wx underground "meterologists" are already busy predicting landfalls.
I believe THIS is the forecast from last weekend that you were referring to???
08/20/08 @ 1200Z - Cat 2 - Apalachicola, Florida
BB
I had to dig in the archives, but I found it.
Yes... thanks Kling Free... hey, at least it came close to the area...
So, it appears that TD Fay has slowed her westward progress and the rain is starting to wrap around what's left of the center. When I first looked at the radar this morning, I thought we might actually break into the clear later this morning or early in the afternoon. I'm starting to think that the rain will continue to fill in during the day ... at least up here in the country (yuk, yuk, yuk).
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