When TS "FAY" (somehow was never a TD) formed over Santo Domingo, we were told that the models were all in agreement, and "FAY" would be a well behaved storm. Well the wind history doesn't show that. Even when it was happening no one forecast the right turn at Florida, the sudden halt, and the complete westward turn with sudden (miraculous?) dissipation.
Take all models with a grain of salt. Use your powers of observation, and load up the camper!
What is beginning to bother me with "GUSTAV" is that forecast, after forecast, are now showing a major hurricane in the north-central Gulf, sometime Labor Day weekend. The longer this trend persists, I don't care what Viper says!
Time to whip it out and lay it on the line gents (and geekettes). I am going with a western LA landfall, of a Cat-4 storm, sometime Labor Day evening. Make a forecast, or start a new blog on flower cutting!
H L GUSTAV
5 comments:
My prediction -
Mouth of the Mississippi - Monday afternoon (1500 CDT) - Cat 2 Hurricane. May God have mercy on our souls.
BB
Although Gustav looks punch drunk from his encounter with Haiti and could find it difficult to recover, I will stand by original prediction and throw down Vermillion Bay after nightfall, Labor Day 2009 as a Cat 3.
Of course, it looks like a new CoC may be rallying the troops to the South and West of the model initialization for the 5pm forecast, so all bets may be off at this point. Curious to see whether the NHC will center the strom at / around 18N / 75W.
Thoughts?
Punch drunk is being polite. Latest water vapor loop looks like Gustav turned into a wave again. Interesting thing that I see from the models now is that Gustav goes into the Gulf, and stalls. More and more I think the GFS has a good handle on this storm - which is weird to say since it has been so strange with its projections. Will NHC resort to the HPTCF - or CAT 2 hurricane over Jamaica....
BB
p.s. Did HLG get a post deleted on Breck's site? Someone went too far.
Will someone please tell Jim Cantore that he was supposed to have checked into the IP, Beau Rivage, Day's Inn, Holiday Inn and/or Motel 6 today? I had about four different people tell me that he checked into four different hotels. He shouldn't be in Atlanta working the weather studio with Alexandria Steele. Geez...
BB
BTW, I didn't even know that Alexandra Steele was married much less pregnant. What the hell has been going on in that studio???
I don't know about Gustav being a wave ... the Hurricane Hunters seem to think they have a good posit on the CoC and the NHC thinks the models are on target. I would think the chances of them all being fooled are not that great, but suppose it is a possibility.
So, you're thinking a little further west now?
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