Current probability of at least 5 foot storm surge. They don't post the single-track runs from SLOSH yet, but this is the best available. Interesting at least.
Why hasn't Gustav strengthen? Here is my theory.... and I saw the same thing with Hanna - an upper low that was northwest of Hanna became entrained by the tropical system, and effectively weakened it. Looking at the water vapor - you can see that the upper low that was northwest of Gustav became entrained by the system - shearing, elongating, and now wrapping around and into Gustav. At least that is one thing I see. I'm sure hurricane enthusiasts will come up with multiple incidents where upper level lows didn't impact hurricanes. BB
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Why hasn't Gustav strengthen? Here is my theory.... and I saw the same thing with Hanna - an upper low that was northwest of Hanna became entrained by the tropical system, and effectively weakened it. Looking at the water vapor - you can see that the upper low that was northwest of Gustav became entrained by the system - shearing, elongating, and now wrapping around and into Gustav. At least that is one thing I see. I'm sure hurricane enthusiasts will come up with multiple incidents where upper level lows didn't impact hurricanes.
BB
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