Go back a week and 94L was astutely pointed out by HLG as much more interesting that a "Low Probability of Formation" area, as some folks in Miami had it. "Spinning like a drunken sailor" was the observation, in fact. So, now the question is, will "GUSTAV" be a hurricane before the Miamians can get their airplane into it, issue one TD forecast, then follow with a 1A forecast as TS/Hurricane?
HLG
1 comment:
I think all the models have lost their ability to forecast tropical systems. The GFDL model went from Cat 5 in the Gulf to showers over Cuba. GFS doesn't even see a storm in the Caribbean. The Canadian sees a Cat 2 system off of Florida. The NOGAPS ... well, nuff said.
As HLG points out - there is something there... just call it a HPTCF with great outflow and nice rotation. Thank goodness for the sentinels of the seas - the buoys - they aren't afraid to take an ob.
BB
Post a Comment