Sunday, December 28, 2008

Blizzard in Louisville This Week?

Hello Weather Geeks,

I am in Louisville and need a critical forecast. I have two children I need to fly to Gulfport by "stand-by", but that is a long story. The NWS is putting out hints that they are expecting a "major winter weather event" before the weekend. This also appears to be a very dynamic scenario that may be hard to predict. What do you think about travel? Get out before Thursday (LOU to GPT), or wait until after the weekend?

Also, interesting weather trivia. We had 54 mph winds last night, and Louisville was under it's 5th "High Wind Warning", which was an all-time record for one month. Records here go way back to the Civil War, though I don't think the did "High Wind Warnings" then. Did they?

-HLG in LOUKY

TC "BILLY"


I thought this was a very nice image of a strong TC in the Indian Ocean.

No Tropical Cyclones here in Kentucky, but we did drop almost 40 degrees in temp since midnight. Brrrrrr.

- HLG

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Freakishly Low Tides in Ponchartrain and Surrounding Marshes

Atmospheric conditions leading to strange tide levels
Posted by Bob Marshall, The Times-Picayune December 15, 2008 3:21PM

One recent morning charter skipper Dudley Vandenborre was preparing for a fishing trip when he got a shock: Lake Pontchartrain was gone.

Well, not completely. But close enough to stun a man who has been fishing the lake for more than 50 years.


"I was lowering the boat (on the slings) at the dock, I really didn't think the boat would reach the water -- that's how low the tide was," Vandenborre recalled. "I had two or three turns of the pipe left before it finally began to float. We've been on this canal for 20 years, and that has never happened before. Ever.

"No one has ever seen the water this low. That's what everyone is talking about."

For three weeks extremely low tides have been the talk -- and complaint -- among anglers across the southeastern marsh. And these aren't your average weekend whiners, but men who make their living on the water. From Venice to Leeville, Lafitte to Delacroix, veteran marshmen are calling this the lowest water in memory.

So (to steal an expression from the late By HEK) "Who pulled the plug?"

"A combination of events happening at the same time -- or the wrong time, depending on your perspective," said Capt. Paul Titus, the man who compiles the Tides Tables for the Fishin' Fridays page in The Times-Picayune. Those events, in order of occurrence:

-- In mid-January we entered an annual period of extremely low tides in the northern Gulf of Mexico which runs roughly through mid-January. During these weeks, Titus said, the mean low tide averages almost a foot lower than normal which, in turn, makes the average high tide well below normal. (Conversely, annual periods of extremely high tides occur from mid-May through mid-June).

-- November also is the month when winter cool fronts begin blowing through, typically arriving on stiff northwesterly winds. Because our coast is a large, shallow bowl, these winds push even more water out of our marshes.

-- In a typical fall, cold fronts are preceded by stiff southerly winds pulled from the Gulf by the approaching pressure ridge, an event that can bring water back into the marsh. One such front came through Wednesday and Thursday and, sure enough, stiff southerly flow moved water in from the Gulf, and the tides shot up.

But most of this season has been a little different. A big norther the third week of November was followed by a series of smaller, dry cold fronts that produced little southerly flow.

"So, a few weeks back, we were already in this low-tidal period when we get that first big front," Titus said. "The water went out on that blow, but for a few weeks it never came back in because we never really had any thing coming from the south."

It was during that two-week period that anglers thought a historic natural event was under way.

How low did it get?

"I've seen the bottom of some ponds and bays that I've never seen before," said Mike Frenette of Venice-based Teaser Charters.

And in Hopedale, Capt. Glen Sanchez and friends were on a rescue mission for standard trout.

"That canal that follows the road down here was filled with baby trout that were trapped by the low water," Sanchez said. "Some guys went down there with landing nets and were scooping them up, crossing the road and dropping them into Bayou la Loutre. They saved hundreds of them.

"I can tell you I've never seen that happen before. "

And, of course, dozens of anglers were stuck on mud flats they never knew existed.

"Oh, we were getting calls," Sanchez said. "Guys were running across bays and lakes that always had enough water, and found themselves stuck. They just weren't prepared for this."

That lack of preparation, Titus said, rests partly with the systems available to present tide tables to the public. Unfortunately for anglers and other boaters, there is no official way to mark the arrival of the annual below-average tide period. That makes the range listings on the daily tide tables during the period a trap for anglers unaware of the event.

"When a guy sees the range is, say, 1.5 feet for a day during this period, he might be expecting the water to come up one-and-a-half feet -- but that won't happen because you're starting that 1.5 feet from a deficit," Titus said.

"So, before you go fishing during this period, you've got to take into account that everything is going to be lower. And that's before you even begin to factor in the effects wind will have on water levels in our shallow estuaries."

It also means you need to boat with caution even in familiar locations, carry a push pole and make sure your marine radio or cell phone is in good working order.

You might also carry a pair of chest-high waders, just in case stepping out of the boat to push becomes necessary.

That's what happens when someone pulls the plug in mid-November

Global Warming Causing Chaos in California! - HLG

Frigid Storm Closes California Freeways, Drops Snow in Malibu
Thursday, December 18, 2008

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AP/The Sun


Dec. 17: An ambulance rolls over and crashes in the snow in El Mirage, Calif.
Dec. 17: An ambulance rolls over and crashes in the snow in El Mirage, Calif.
LOS ANGELES — Snow snarled major mountain highways and even dusted Malibu on Wednesday as a cold storm hit parts of California. One person was killed by a wind-related helicopter crash, and an overflowing river on the U.S.-Mexico border led to the evacuation of nearly two dozen people, rescues of about 50 horses and the deaths of four others.

Styming thousands of commuters and travelers, snow shut Interstate 15 over 4,190-foot Cajon Pass east of Los Angeles and roads through the San Gabriel Mountains connecting metropolitan Los Angeles to the commuter suburbs of Palmdale and Lancaster in the high desert to the north.

Interstate 5, a major trucking and travel route connecting Southern California with the Central Valley and Northern California, stayed open over 4,144-foot Tejon Pass most of the day, with on-and-off Highway Patrol escorts, then finally was shut down in the afternoon as conditions deteriorated. Massive backups developed below all the passes.



Calen Weiss, 19, of Tarzana, his brother and two friends wanted to go snowboarding at Big Bear in the San Bernardino Mountains but instead got stuck on I-15 in Cajon Pass for an hour as visibility fell to about 40 yards.

"It looks like Whoville, all snowy, but with less joy and more extreme misery," he said by phone from the Summit Inn.

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Winter Storms Grip the Nation Heavy rain also fell in some parts of Southern California through the day.

Near the California-Mexico border, San Diego firefighters and lifeguards evacuated 21 people along the overflowing Tijuana River, said spokesman Maurice Luque. They included 12 to 15 people who were on high ground outside a home, surrounded by up to 4 feet of water.

Five people were taken out by helicopter, while others were escorted in Border Patrol all-terrain vehicles, Luque said. Three men were taken to a hospital for treatment of hypothermia.

About 50 horses also were evacuated, but three others drowned and one was euthanized after tripping on barbed wire, Luque said.

To the east, several vehicles collided and slid into ditches on Interstate 8's mountainous grades as heavy snow fell at the San Diego-Imperial County line. Other vehicles were stuck on the steep upgrade, their wheels spinning on the snow-packed surface, according to the California Highway Patrol.

Blowing snow, slush and ice prompted the Antelope Valley Transit Authority to cancel all its local buses, along with 18 commuter runs that usually carry some 650 people from the Palmdale-Lancaster area down to Los Angeles and back home.

The regional Metrolink rail system agreed to carry bus commuters who had already reached Los Angeles back home, spokesman Francisco Oaxaca said.

However, trains were ordered to proceed slowly because of the snow. Two trains also were delayed around 45 minutes at midday because engineers could not see the red, green and yellow track signals.

It was the first time in his 15 years with Metrolink that snow had caused such problems, Oaxaca said.

Transit agencies in the East have special equipment to clear tracks and otherwise handle snow but "we're not equipped for this kind of weather on a consistent basis in this part of the world," Oaxaca said.

In the Santa Clarita area north of Los Angeles, a wind gust caused a helicopter to crash, killing an electrical worker on the ground and leaving the pilot with minor injuries, county fire Inspector Frank Garrido said.

The helicopter was hired by Southern California Edison to string electrical lines between power poles in the Bouquet Canyon area.

"It was hovering above the ground. A gust of wind made the helicopter spiral," Garrido said.

Garrido said the accident report stated that the dead man was an Edison employee, but utility spokesman Steve Conroy said the victim was employed by the company operating the helicopter.

Late in the afternoon snow fell in the Malibu area.

"It's a combination of snow and rain, so none of the snow is sticking on the ground," said Craig Levy, director of a juvenile detention camp near Mulholland Highway. "It's kind of cool if you think about it. It's kind of unusual to see snow in Malibu."

More severe cold was on the way, the National Weather Service said.

Freeze warnings were issued for late Wednesday through Thursday morning for the Sacramento Valley, the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta region, among others.

"A freeze warning means subfreezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation," the NWS said.

Freeze warnings were also issued for north San Francisco Bay area valleys, and a combination of frost advisories and freeze warnings were issued for parts of southwestern California.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Politically In-Correct BB?


Although Dr BB has the feds investigating our site after making fun of a very common male name in Micronesia (Dolphin, or so I am told), the storm is certainly interesting from a meteorological viewpoint, as well as a xenophobic one!

- HLG

NOTE TO SELF...


... don't name Typhoons after cute marine mammals like dolphins. Might give people the wrong impression.

BB

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Sub-Polar Storm "LARRY" Causes Havoc


Global Warming as seen from space. - HLG

Global Warming Weirdness Update - HLG

Storm leaves at least 1 million without power in Northeast



NEW YORK (CNN) -- The governors of Massachusetts and New Hampshire declared states of emergency Friday after high winds, rain and snow swept through the Northeast, leaving at least a million homes and businesses without power.


iReporter Candy Novoa says she woke up Friday to find a tree branch lying across her neighbor's car.

The National Weather Service said sleet and snow, along with more than half an inch of ice that accumulated on roads in some areas, had made driving treacherous. In Massachusetts, work crews struggled to clear the debris because the powerful storm left roads and bridges covered in ice.

Gov. Deval Patrick told WCVB-TV in Boston it would be optimistic to think power would be restored by Monday.

"This is not going to be a couple of hours," Patrick said. "It's likely to be several days."

Patrick mobilized 500 National Guardsmen to help clear roads, WCVB-TV reported. Utility company National Grid reported that nearly 300,000 homes and businesses in Massachusetts were without power.

Schools were closed across the state, as authorities warned ice-laden branches could snap and down power lines

"This is a serious storm," John Maserjian, a spokesman for Central Hudson Gas & Electric in upstate New York, told CNN. "We have contended with worse storms in past years, but this is among the worst."

Don't Miss
WMUR: Governor declares state of emergency
WCVB: Ice knocks out power to thousands
In New Hampshire, more than 300,000 residents had no electricity, CNN affiliate WMUR in Manchester said, citing reports from four of the state's utility companies.

The station reported that fire departments across the state were scrambling to respond to reports of transformer explosions, downed power lines and utility poles, as well as burning and felled trees.

The New Hampshire state fire marshal's office told WMUR a 49-year-old man died during the ice storm. WMUR reported a 49-year-old man died from carbon monoxide poisoning while trying to heat his camper using a generator.

Gov. John Lynch declared a state of emergency and issued a statement, saying, "With rain expected to continue and temperatures expected to drop as the day progresses it is important that the state has all its resources available to manage this situation."

Amtrak train service between Albany, New York, and New York City was suspended Friday morning, as was service between Portland, Maine, and Boston, Massachusetts. Ice and wind caused tree limbs to clutter the tracks and work crews could not clear them.

Amtrak said it hoped to have service restored by Friday evening rush hour.

The National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning Friday morning, saying that increasing winds and significant amounts of snow and sleet were expected. The deteriorating conditions could result in further damage to trees and power lines, the weather service said.

Central Maine Power had 220,000 homes and businesses without electricity, spokesman John Carroll said Friday afternoon.

In upstate New York, two utility companies reported that more than 200,000 customers were without power

More than 50,000 Central Hudson Gas & Electric customers in the Hudson River Valley were without power early Friday afternoon, said Denise VanBuren, a spokeswoman for the utility.

Mutual aid crews in neighboring areas are spread thin, VanBuren said, so utility officials are requesting help from out-of-state crews, meaning power is not likely to be restored until Sunday or Monday.

National Grid in New York reported more than 185,000 customers lost power in 23 counties. The company also had 22,000 customers in New Hampshire and 6,000 in Rhode Island without power.

Residents also were having to contend with floods caused by excessive rainfall and blocked storm drains.

The power outages raised concerns about the health of senior citizens in Holden, Massachusetts, and Goffstown, New Hampshire.

Medical crews in Goffstown evacuated the Villager Nursing Home after the facility lost power. Residents were moved to a nearby middle school, WMUR reported.

In Holden, senior citizens requiring oxygen were transported to a local hospital or a makeshift shelter at the town's senior center, according to WCVB.

"Stay home if you live in Holden. Don't come to Holden if you work here," Holden Fire Chief Jack Chandler told WCVB.

Friday's weather service forecast called for continued snow showers and temperatures below freezing across the Northeast. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches were expected

Friday, December 12, 2008

Snow in NOLA


I remember the last accumulation in 1989. I can't remember another since then.

Amazing! Saints go to Chicago and it snows in New Orleans! Three years in a row the Bears ended the Saints season!

HLG

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Sub-Polar Storm "LARRY"


I think that in honor of the Larestar's outstanding forecast of this strong winter storm we should categorize this event.

Thus, I propose this storm as a sub-polar storm, since it obviously DID NOT originate in the polar regions, but it's cyclogenesis is along a polar air-mass which has intruded into the tropics in the latest manifestation of the on-coming Ice Age.

So, please take a look at Sub-Polar Storm (01-2008) "LARRY"

-HLG

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Nice image in China high valley


Cold air pooled in a high valley of Western China. Nice image of low clouds with surrounding terrain.

HLG

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

WHEW....

I thought we had a shot at making this list....

http://tech.msn.com/products/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=13523062&GT1=40000

BB

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

RE: [Four Weather Studs and a Babe!] New comment on Winter Storm?.

Yep BB, I noticed that (I was going by the 06Z run early this AM, which was similar to several previous runs).  The 12Z GFS has dramatically changed from 06Z by pulling the cold core further north and delayed the development of the system by several days--may be a trend or an anomalous run.  For several days has been consistently showing some sort of major southern system around mid-month.......................have to see where (and when) (and if) it eventually settles.
 
larster

Winter Storm?

Anyone notice the big southern winter storm weekend after next (~12-13th)?  540 thickness is north of the coast (snowline for the non-meteorologists) while precipitating, but freeze line is south offshore (icestorm/sleet?).  Have to keep an eye on this one to see if it pans out.
 
larster

Monday, December 1, 2008

2008 Atlantice Hurricane Season Set Multiple Records


- The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season officially came to an end Sunday.

It was the fourth busiest storm season on record, tied with 1944.

This year's season saw 16 named storms. Eight storms became hurricanes, three of which reached category-3 strength or higher.

This year was the first time on record that six consecutive storms struck the U.S. mainland. A record three category-3 storms hit Cuba.

Bertha, in July, was the longest lived July storm on record in the Atlantic. It lasted 17 days.

Fay, in August, became the only storm on record to make landfall in Florida four times. And Paloma reached category-4 strength, the second-strongest November hurricane on record.

- HLG (IMage is from TC 06 B (B is for Bay of Bengal after all from last week)