Correction, this is a Tropical Storm. With all the data at their fingertips, our friends at the NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC/XYZ once again blew the call on formation of a tropical cyclone ... this time, it's right on our doorstep. Do they really think that we're going to believe that the storm mystically, and rapidly intensified in the matter of an hour from TD #5 to TS Edouard? Who do they think they're fooling?
I looked at the radar out of New Orleans, the latest Scatt pass, satellite imagery, buoy obs, etc. etc. etc. and concluded that it was at least a depression and maybe a storm and I'm a rank amateur.
The forecaster in the initial advisory didn't think that the storm would reach Hurricane strength before landfall, now they're running around with their hair on fire trying to hoist the hurricane warning flags along the Gulf Coast. What a bunch of buffoons. Asleep at the wheel again, afraid to pull the trigger, and too dependent on Recon data.
Models have been wprking on developing this feature for 3 or 4 days and have consistently pushed it west into the TX bend or TX /LA border. Let's hope the models perform as admirably as they did for Dolly. Always a little nerve racking when a storm pops up and the models just get warmed up. Good chance for larger errors.
Oh, by the way, this thing ain't movin much at all. Don't have a warm, fuzzy feeling about this.
Klingfree
P.S. Your feature off of Africa isn't a TD yet because the experts at the NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC/XYZ haven't seen any recon data yet and are afraid to make the call.
I said it before, and I'll say it again ... this thing ain't movin much. Someone east of the projected landfall could be in for a surprise come morning.
OK, something is sitting right with mehe Wat on this one. Look at the Water Vapor Loop (if you're still up). Specifically, the spin in the Western Caribbean which appears to be pinching off Eduoard (for lack of a better term. It doesn't appear to me that there is sufficient forcing mechanism in the atmosphere to push this storm West. Are we being misled by the models? Sorry, but I just don't see what is going to kick this storm West.
5 comments:
Warning! Warning! Warning!
Correction, this is a Tropical Storm. With all the data at their fingertips, our friends at the NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC/XYZ once again blew the call on formation of a tropical cyclone ... this time, it's right on our doorstep. Do they really think that we're going to believe that the storm mystically, and rapidly intensified in the matter of an hour from TD #5 to TS Edouard? Who do they think they're fooling?
I looked at the radar out of New Orleans, the latest Scatt pass, satellite imagery, buoy obs, etc. etc. etc. and concluded that it was at least a depression and maybe a storm and I'm a rank amateur.
The forecaster in the initial advisory didn't think that the storm would reach Hurricane strength before landfall, now they're running around with their hair on fire trying to hoist the hurricane warning flags along the Gulf Coast. What a bunch of buffoons. Asleep at the wheel again, afraid to pull the trigger, and too dependent on Recon data.
Models have been wprking on developing this feature for 3 or 4 days and have consistently pushed it west into the TX bend or TX /LA border. Let's hope the models perform as admirably as they did for Dolly. Always a little nerve racking when a storm pops up and the models just get warmed up. Good chance for larger errors.
Time to go tes the generator.
Warning! Warning! Warning!
Klingfree out.
Oh, by the way, this thing ain't movin much at all. Don't have a warm, fuzzy feeling about this.
Klingfree
P.S. Your feature off of Africa isn't a TD yet because the experts at the NOAA/NWS/NHC/TPC/XYZ haven't seen any recon data yet and are afraid to make the call.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=wdel1&meas=pres&uom=E&time_diff=5&time_label=CDT
Pressure is crashing at Station WDEL1 - Shell West Delta 143 - just south of the mouth.
The tropical discussion mentioned a 5 mb drop in - an hour??? - ugghhh.
BB
I said it before, and I'll say it again ... this thing ain't movin much. Someone east of the projected landfall could be in for a surprise come morning.
OK, something is sitting right with mehe Wat on this one. Look at the Water Vapor Loop (if you're still up). Specifically, the spin in the Western Caribbean which appears to be pinching off Eduoard (for lack of a better term. It doesn't appear to me that there is sufficient forcing mechanism in the atmosphere to push this storm West. Are we being misled by the models? Sorry, but I just don't see what is going to kick this storm West.
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