Not good, if you live in the northern Gulf Coast.
"IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELCONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWESTOF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED" -NHC (after four consecutive forecasts further south and west than the previous)
also ....
"BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHTAND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LANDINTERACTION. " - NHC (land in question would be western Cuba!)
This could also be the fourth week in a row that Haiti gets flooding rains from a tropical system, Fay three weeks ago, Gustav two weeks ago, Hanna last week, and now Ike! YIKES!!
HLG
1 comment:
It should also be noted that Ike could be the 6th consecutive storm to make a US landfall, which I believe would be a new record.
BTW, Dr. Jeff Master's Wunderground blog the other day noted the same thing you did about Hanna questioning whether or not it was a warm core system.
Sooner or later, the south of west trend will flatten out and when that happens, I think we will have a better idea about landfall on the Gulf Coast. There is still some question wrt which trough will pick him up too. However, if the southerly trend continues, it will be difficult for the 1st one to pick him up. Timing, timing, timing. Guess I need to get the map out this weekend and scout out some potential evac locations for the wife and kids, just to be safe.
Apparently, there are still widespread outages from Gustav in Central and Northern LA that could take WEEKS to fix. Seem to recall ol' Gus was a Cat 2. Jindal is pissed and Bush is looking in the Yellow Pages for a few good electricians. Maybe he should ask Daddy if he can borrow the 1000 points of light ... wouldn't be prudent, at this juncture ...
So, have they started returning the evacuees that they bused / trained out or will they shleter them in place until after any potential threat from Ike passes. Decisions, decisions. Can't evac the city ofr all of hurricane season though.
KF
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