Look back at the forecast. The track and landfall in Louisiana were amazingly accurate form roughly the time the storm was over Jamaica last week! The were some intensity fluctuations which were underestimated before Cuba landfall, and overestimated in the Gulf, but the track it amazingly accurate!
HLG
4 comments:
Looks like we will have power outages pretty soon - if not now for some... CPA is about now. Pretty good gusts of wind and some severe storms. Will check in once power comes back. Shout out to NHC and the models. Their 72 hr forecast errors should be in the tens.
BB
Looks like tides are running 5 ft above normal. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8747437%20Bay%20Waveland%20Yacht%20Club,%20MS&type=Tide+Data
Storm surge arrived.
BB
Ok, one more comment while the lights are blinking on and off... what model performed the best? It is hard to say. The UKMET, ECMWF and (gulp) NOGAPS actually showed the Louisiana/Texas landfall while GFS, GFDL and HWRF had Mississippi. They eventually came into line - but the NHC acted smartly by splitting the difference early in the forecasts.
BB
Still have power... but the squall lines keep coming in. Is it me or is Mobile under a perpetual tornado warning? They have been under some sort of tornado warning for at least an hour. Are there really tornadoes dancing all around the Mobile area? Pressure tendency is stable - so we might have had CPA. Buoy 42040 is still reporting - woo hoo!
BB
Post a Comment