It appears SLOSH may be overestimating the surge. Not sure yet, but the USGS deployed a bunch of portable/disposable automated tide guages just before the storm. Highest reports so far are around 12 feet. High, but certainly not 20. They are still sticking with 20, so SLOSH runs must be showing that. Oddly (and this is and odd storm) they are predicting highest surge may be AFTER the eye. Hmmm. (please ignore NHC mis-spelled "gage")
HLG
"COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGEAND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPERTEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS AGREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZEOF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COASTARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS" - NHC
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