"IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDOUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICALSTORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM." - NHC
The fact that "IKE" has such a large hurricane-force windfield is a key similarity with that "K" storm. This was the single most important factor in the massive storm surge. The peculiar track that is forecast, with a sharp right-turn at landfall could trap a massive surge in the general Galveston Bay area. It doesn't matter much to the SLOSH model if the storm is a 3 or 4 at this point, with that massive windfield that is unlikely to change before landfall. As we get closer to 24 hours from landfall they will be publishing the results of the "single-track" runs of SLOSH to get the warnings of the details of this surge out. What I don't see now, looking at the Houston Chronicle web-site, and others, is that they aren't focused on this deadly threat. Surge is the biggest killer in hurricanes, especially in the physcial geography of the Gulf of Mexico states. I think it is criminal that the NFL and MLB hasn't decided to move their games at this late hour. Very bad messages are being sent.
HLG
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