Tuesday, September 30, 2008

WHERE ART THOU SOLAR WIND?



"The average pressure of the solar wind has dropped more than 20% since the mid-1990s," says Dave McComas of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. "This is the weakest it's been since we began monitoring solar wind almost 50 years ago."

I'm sure humans had something to do with this as well, and for that, I am sorry.

BB

Monday, September 29, 2008

Supertyphoon "JANGMI" Beauty Shot


Just before it trashed Taiwan.


HLG

Never ending debate: "Evacuate or Not Evacuate"

I am just amazed that three short years after Katrina, the debate rages in NOLA, of all places!

Storm rages over city's Gustav response

by Gordon Russell, The Times-Picayune
Saturday September 27, 2008, 10:45 PM

Six days after Hurricane Gustav's winds died down, dozens of regulars bellied up to the bar at Bruno's in Uptown New Orleans, enjoying air conditioning, football and the feel of normal life returning.
For many, it had been a rough week, starting with the stress of a killer storm gathering in the Gulf and growing with endless hours spent on clogged highways and the expense and hardships of evacuation. Then, once the storm passed, many grew angry at being asked to stay away a few more days.
Shortly after night fell, the patrons found a new reason for annoyance: Police entered and ordered everyone to go home. The reason? A 10 p.m. curfew still in effect in many neighborhoods across the city included the Riverbend area. Similar scenes played out in barrooms and eateries all over town after Gustav, in many cases well after power had been restored to surrounding blocks.
The curfew, an anti-looting measure, is just one of several aspects of a government response to Gustav that critics have faulted for heavy-handedness. Roadblocks at the parish lines and the tiered plan for re-entry, though short-lived, have come under fire for similar reasons.
Critiques have come from the other end of the philosophical spectrum, too. Some believe the government didn't do enough in the evacuation push -- arguing, for instance, that some northern Louisiana shelters were poorly outfitted or that evacuees should have gotten cash aid to offset expenses.
In short, Gustav seems to have forged an odd alliance of liberals and libertarians, who between them raise a gamut of thorny philosophical questions. What is the government's obligation, if any, to people it has ordered out of their homes? And is keeping people away from their property for their own safety the mark of enlightened leadership -- or another example of government trampling personal freedoms in a democracy?
David Melius, Bruno's owner, didn't see the sense in the curfew. How is the public good harmed, he wondered, by 50 people spending money at a business whose employees are hungry for tips after being out of work for almost a week? Does someone think patrons are stopping for a beer and a burger en route to a looting rampage?
"I think it's very dangerous for our streets to go dark at 10 p.m.," Melius said. "After a storm, especially, people need to eat and drink, and many people maybe still didn't have their fridges stocked.
"Seventy percent of our business happens after 10 o'clock. We've got 35 employees, and for many of them, this is their livelihood."
Looking back
Citizen and government reaction to storms is often driven by their experience with the last one. Clearly, some of the anger over Gustav owes to the gap between the storm's early reputation and its reality.
In 2004, Hurricane Ivan -- which was predicted to flatten New Orleans and instead created only massive traffic jams -- in a sense begat the complacency seen the next August, when some residents ignored the approach of Katrina.
The horrors of Katrina, in turn, led to the frenetic response to Gustav. Every level of government went on high alert; buses were at the ready; and most residents heeded Mayor Ray Nagin's call to flee the "mother of all storms."
It worked: Almost everyone left, and almost no one died. Thousands of National Guardsmen and cops patrolled the streets, holding looting to a relative minimum.
Still, after the storm passed without major damage to the New Orleans area, thousands of people complained of slow contraflow traffic and wretched conditions at shelters. And many people were hard-hit in the wallet: More than 400,000 households across the state signed up for subsidized emergency food debit cards.
Against that backdrop, some leaders and opinion-makers are starting to talk about a hurricane plan that relies less on evacuation -- which may strike some people as blasphemous just three years after Katrina killed more than 1,800 people.
Even Nagin, who pronounced himself generally satisfied with the response to Gustav, said the relative lack of damage may call for some rethinking.
"The fact that the levees held calls for us to re-examine just about everything we have done in the past," Nagin said Sept. 8, as he ended the curfew.
Nagin later said he would call another mandatory evacuation in the event of a threat similar to Gustav. And he urged the federal government to make leaving unnecessary.
"Our community deserves a flood-protection system that allows us to feel secure in the face of storms, rather than dealing with frequent evacuations," he wrote in a recent column published in The Times-Picayune.
Economic burden
The effect of a weeklong shutdown on the city's economy, and on its working class in particular, was put into high relief by the hours-long lines for food stamps.
"There are thousands and thousands of people in this town who don't have two weeks' worth of money," said Bill Quigley, head of the Poverty Law Center at Loyola University.
Some politicians believe government -- preferably the federal branch -- should pay for evacuation expenses, at least in part. City Councilman James Carter, for instance, a candidate for Congress, would like to see the federal government give out cash cards that could be activated in a mandatory evacuation.
"We need a front-end system, whereby before residents hit the road, they know that have resources to sustain themselves," he said.
While such an idea would likely get support from New Orleanians, it's not clear what kind of reception it would get in Washington, where disaster fatigue seems to be creeping in.
So far, FEMA has been unwilling to cover many of the costs borne by residents who evacuated for Gustav, saying, for instance, that free shelters were available to those who couldn't find or afford hotels.
Regardless of available government aid, some locals think it's time to stop running from storms.
Brobson Lutz, who was the city's health director under Mayor Marc Morial, thinks leaders should rethink mandatory evacuations. He's never heeded one.
"We have public buildings, substantial buildings in the nonflood zones, that people could go to if they didn't feel safe in their own homes," Lutz said. "If the city totally disintegrates, like it's done once in 300 years, then people are already in groups where, with a good government effort, you could get them out of town."
Trying to get home
Even if people are told unequivocally to leave, many believe they should be allowed back whenever they want.
After all, evacuees are the ones who obeyed their government, which raises a basic question of fairness: How can the government punish the compliant by keeping them out, even as those who ignored orders to leave move about town freely -- and in some cases get their businesses restarted to capitalize on the return?
Officially, New Orleanians weren't welcomed back until Sept. 4, more than 48 hours after the storm ended, though some came back sooner.
In Jefferson Parish, families waited at a roadblock in Avondale a day after the storm passed -- frustrated, broke, out of food and water, and unable to get to their nearby homes. A tiered re-entry system, designed to allow people providing essential services back in first, added to the heartache, as many would-be returnees were unaware of the system.
Citizens returning home shouldn't be considered a burden, said criminal defense attorney John Reed. "I believe people coming back contributes to the speedy recovery of the city. Citizens shouldn't be viewed as a hindrance," he said. "This notion that we have to turn to somebody to take care of things for us is, I think, mistaken."
Lutz agreed. "You tell people, 'This is a miserable place, it's hot and humid and you're probably not going to have electricity when you come back,'¤" he said. "But if you want to come back, come.
"Anyone who has been on a Girl Scout camping trip and is more or less physically able can handle themselves in a post-storm situation with no power," he said.
'A delicate balance'
If anger over re-entry policy was exemplified by motorists stuck at roadblocks, those who depended on public transportation -- many of whom spent a week outside the city -- felt even more cut off, said the Poverty Law Center's Quigley.
"People in the shelters felt they lost their citizenship," he said. "A hurricane doesn't erase the rights of being a United States citizen."
Even after people were allowed back, a curfew lingered for four more nights in parts of town, another decision that, in the eyes of critics, further delayed the return to normalcy.
Local officials defended both the re-entry policy and the curfews. Col. Jerry Sneed, New Orleans director of homeland security, said city officials share the goal of quick repopulation, "but not at the expense of public safety."
But Melius, the bar owner, saw irony in the city asking business owners on Wednesday to come back and reopen on the one hand -- and keeping a curfew in place on the other.
City Councilman-at-large Arnie Fielkow praised the smooth evacuation but criticized the re-entry policy as unduly harmful to businesses. He has convened a "working group" of business leaders and officials to make recommendations on ways to minimize the economic hardships.
City Councilwoman Cynthia Hedge-Morrell said it's important to learn from Gustav, but noted that in stressful times people often react with emotion rather than logic.
"To me, there is a delicate balance that has to happen between the needs of people who are healthy enough to come back and rough it, versus those people who hear what they want to hear," Hedge-Morrell said. "Some of them didn't hear there's no electricity, there's no pharmacies.
"We have to make sure people understand that. I don't see anything wrong with it if you clearly state that if you come back, you're on your own."
Gordon Russell can be reached at grussell@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3347.

STS "LAURA"


Well we have our first Sub-Tropical Storm of the season. This is an odd storm, but the scatterometry is a beautiful, extremely large, nearly perfectly concentric windfield.
It still begs the question about the earlier low that went into Carolinas. All the science pointed at at least a TD or STD, but nothing. Was this just political since they didn't think it had time to develop so close to coast?


HLG

Notta TD/TS


Let's review.


The storm in this picture was clearly warm-cored, had teh requisite winds, and convection was building around a central core. This was somehow, not a TD, TS, or EVEN a STD.


Why?

HLG

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Hurricane Watch for Maine?

OK all you weather geeks.

When was the last hurricane to strike Maine?

I don't even remember the last hurricane watch for Maine!

HLG

Friday, September 26, 2008

No Matter How Far I Go ....

I am still surrounded by weather geeks!

THIRTY-FIFTH ANNUAL
MDA FEDERAL SNOW POOL




Guess when one-half inch or more of snow will first be officially measured on the ground at National Airport this season.

The signup list is posted in the hall outside the Weather room (Room 423). Deadline for signing up is 4:00 PM on Friday, October 24. Payment must be made by that time. The pot is usually over $100. Pick as many date-time combinations as you want at 75 CENTS PER PICK or 3 PICKS FOR TWO DOLLARS. There is a two-pick minimum. Payment should be made to me (Jason Setree -Weather Group). A special category is available to all who want to guess that NO half-inch or greater measurements will occur prior to April 1. (This has occurred three times in the past 35 years.) If no one picks the correct time, the nearest pick will win. In the event of a nearest-pick tie or multiple winners in the "no snow" category, pot will be divided. If "no snow" wins but no one selected it, latest pick gets pot. If the first half-inch event occurs before November 1 or after March 31, it is ignored.

Official measurements are taken four times daily: at 1:00 and 7:00 AM and 1:00 and 7:00 PM EST and are reported in the NWS METAR reports which are automatically collected and archived at MDA Federal. These reports round the measurement to the nearest whole inch, so if the actual amount was 0.5 inch, it will be reported as one inch and used for purposes of this pool. Unofficial measurements are taken at intermediate hours and may be reported in the media – we do not use them.


3 PICKS FOR $2.00 or 75 CENTS PER PICK
SIGN UP NOW -- PAY BY OCT. 24
Payment to Jason Setree

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Still NOT Tropical?


Radar and satellite sure are suggesting otherwise.


HLG

LONG ISLAND STORM?


The models have consistently shown sub-par-tropical thingy 93L becoming better organized and "slamming" into Long Island. Clearly this is a sign from above that the financial crisis will soon doom us all.

So, until this subtropical financial crisis is over, I will suspend all blogging from this site, science gal's site, and the Hooters Girls I Love to Stalk site. God Bless America.

BB

Tune in Weather Channel this Evening

They promise to have an explanation of what a "Sub-Tropical" Storm is. I can't wait! I have no idea what one is!

HLG

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

CIMMS WEB SITE


CIMMS has some very interesting satellite images on their website. This one is fascinating to watch - if you are a weather geek...

The satellite loop shows a gravity wave propagating against the ambient flow, towards the northwest (over the Indiana, Ohio, Michigan region).

BB

NOT a LPTF?


There is a surface low and convection in the NW quad. Doesn't even rate a Low Prob of Trop Formation?

HLG

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Hail Cannons Making a Comeback!

You gotta love it when "real" science and doing something about the weather collide.

Is this technology NOAA approved??

HLG

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/09/22/hail.cannon.ap/index.html

Monday, September 22, 2008

Very bad for Haiti (Again!)

Puzzling behavior from the NHC. The surface low is now clearly visible just north of the DR. Haiti will be in tropical rainfall again soon. (fifth time this season). However, even though the second STDS (Special Tropical Disturbance Statement) on this one system (record?) came out, the High Probability Tropical Formation aleart went down to a MEDIUM! HUH?

HLG

MODIS Shows Flooding in LA/TX From "IKE"

Move your mouse over the image to see before and after coastal flooding in LA and TX. The amazing thing is how much water there was four days after "IKE".


http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2008-09-22


HLG

Hong Kong & "HAGUPIT"


Don't get to say that everyday!


Looks like Hong Kong will have another close typhoon pass. It has been a very busy year in the South China Sea.


HLG

"Best" Source of Quikscat Scatterometry

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/

If there is a better on, I don't know it. The mapping technology is crude, using fixed-box zooms, and the storms are rarely centered in those. Not much shnowing for "K", just yet.

HLG

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Saffir-Simpson Scale Flawed - Oh My

Check out this article about why the Saffir-Simpson scale is dangerous and even causes more deaths and how we need a better system for classifying hurricanes. Duh - ya think???

http://www.sunherald.com/editorials/story/829605.html

Let the discussion begin.

We all have obviously seen how simply categorizing based on the saffir-simpson scale is not accurate, at least not with today's freaky storms. Katrina, 31 feet, Cat 3 (maybe) on the scale but excess of Cat 5 water. It would be interesting to see, historically speaking, how the scale performed prior to MS K and oh yeah how bout Isadore in 2002, Tropical Storm - 8 foot surge.

What say ye from the brain trust?

gg

Looks like a TD SE of PR

Regardless of what the models are saying!

HLG

Thursday, September 18, 2008

"K" Storm of 2008 Forming?


Is this the "K" storm of 2008 forming in the NE Carib?

HLG

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

IKE's Missing Out to Sea?

Some of Ike's Missing May Have Been Swept Out to Sea

Wednesday, September 17, 2008




As the hurricane closed in, authorities estimated that 90,000 people ignored evacuation orders along the Gulf Coast. Post-storm rescuers in Galveston and the peninsula removed about 3,500 people, but another 6,000 refused to leave.
Nobody is suggesting that tens of thousands died, but determining what happened to those unaccounted for is a painstaking task that could leave survivors wondering for months or years to come.
Authorities concede that at least some of those who haven't turned up could have been washed out to sea, as at least one woman on the peninsula apparently was, and that other bodies might still be found.
"I'm not Pollyana. I think we will find some," said Galveston County Judge Jim Yarbrough, the county's highest-ranking elected official.
Pustilniks' office brought in two refrigerated tractor-trailers to store bodies until autopsies are performed. One sat in front of the medical examiner's office Wednesday morning with a sign on the side: "Jesus Christ is Lord not a cuss word."
By the afternoon, five deaths had been reported in Galveston County: one man who drowned in his pickup, another found inside a motel, two dialysis patients who could not get to their treatment, and a woman with cancer whose oxygen machine shut down.
The stench of rotting animals and livestock polluted the once-picturesque community of Crystal Beach, where about two dozen people stayed behind. One survivor told of seeing a friend wrenched from the rafters by the storm's fury and swept out to sea.
In evacuation shelters hundreds of miles from the coast, displaced residents — like the loved ones of victims of 2005's Hurricane Katrina — scrolled through address books and blog postings and anxiously dialed relatives, friends and neighbors not heard from.
On an Internet forum where survivors listed notes giving their whereabouts and asking for news of the missing, the messages revealed the growing anxiety and frustration of those desperate for some word about their loved ones.
"Anyone know Rosa who lived on the end towards the bay in gilchrist on Dolphin rd? She didnt have a vehicle and last we heard she was staying?"
And this message: "If ANYONE KNOWS WHERE MY FATHER IS OR KNOWS IF HE IS ALIVE AND WELL, PLEASE PLEASE LET ME KNOW. I AM HEARTBROKEN!!"
In Galveston County, where about 15,000 residents stayed behind, officials did not have an exact number of missing residents. The Red Cross is helping track down the missing by setting up registries at shelters and sending workers on welfare checks, Yarbrough said.
At Galveston's emergency management center, 12 phone lines rang constantly with calls from people trying to find relatives. As the calls came in, the city's beach patrol would go to the homes and check.
Sometimes, the searches end in relief. The Red Cross quickly found an elderly Galveston couple reported missing Wednesday morning by relatives in Wyoming, Yarbrough said.
The search echoes the chaos following Katrina in 2005, when bodies were turning up more than a year after the storm as ruined homes were dismantled and families returned after months away. Katrina killed more than 1,600 people.
In that storm, there was no way to track people who left the city. The situation worsened when more than 100,000 New Orleanians who took refuge in Houston had to scatter again a few weeks later for Hurricane Rita.
Authorities opened a center in Baton Rouge, La., to take reports of people who were missing. And just as Ike survivors are doing now, volunteers there turned into amateur detectives — digging through Web sites that sprouted for missing families and calling nursing homes and hospitals.
The center for the missing closed nearly a year after Katrina, when authorities said they had finally exhausted leads.
Brownsville resident Amy Woodside has posted several messages online trying to track down friends who may have succumbed to Ike.
"I'm worried about everybody who is still unaccounted for," she said. "We may never find some of them."

Hurricanes from Oribt

Very interesting web-article, with amazing photos of hurricanes from the shuttle, ISS, and other platforms.

HLG
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/hurricanes_as_seen_from_orbit.html?s_campaign=8315

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Most of Louisville out of Power for WEEKS from IKE



More than 250,000 lack power in Louisville area


By Jessie Halladay and Dan Klepal • The Courier-Journal • September 16, 2008



With residents warned that they may have no power for up to two weeks, Louisville requested help from the National Guard to patrol darkened neighborhoods, keep traffic flowing and aid utility crews. More than 100 guardsmen have been activated to help city officials with the recovery efforts in the wake of hurricane-force winds that battered the area Sunday. Across the area, three people were killed by trees or limbs that were knocked down by the gusts."I want every Kentuckian suffering from the effects of this storm to know that the state is going to do everything we can," said Gov. Steve Beshear, who has declared a state of emergency in Kentucky. "It's the biggest outage of record in our commonwealth," he said. "It is a widespread problem and obviously a serious problem here in Louisville." The problem was serious enough to prompt area schools to call off classes for a second straight day. Jefferson County Public Schools Superintendent Sheldon Berman was warning parents that they should plan for a week without classes. Long lines formed at several area gas stations, fueled by residents worried that supplies would run low. Many grocery stores and other businesses remained closed.And outages continued to plague the region. Last night, fewer than 215,000 Louisville Gas & Electric customers remained without power, with officials warning residents that it might be two weeks before everyone has electricity.In Southern Indiana, 45,873 Duke Energy customers in Clark, Floyd, Harrison and Jefferson counties lacked power last night."We know this is not the news you want to hear," said Chris Hermann of LG&E. "But we're working as fast as we possibly can." By this morning, 1,100 people from LG&E are expected to be working to restore service. That includes local crews who were sent to help other states hit by hurricanes Gustav and Ike. Their job is immense — LG&E has counted 5,350 downed lines, 277 snapped poles and several blown transformers. Hermann said there is no way to predict which areas will see power restored first, saying that hospitals, police and fire stations, and schools take priority.Then the company works to bring up residential areas that affect the most customers. "People should be planning for the extended period," Hermann said. Indiana utility officials warned that power outages might last until late this week or even this weekend because of the large numbers of lines broken by the storm.`Dangerous situation'While utility crews were out, Louisville public works and parks crews continued to try to clear roads of fallen trees that in many cases impeded traffic. Mayor Jerry Abramson said the main roads were cleared by early yesterday but it could take several days for all the side streets to be cleared. "This dangerous situation is not over," Abramson said. "It's not over when you have 3,000 power lines down in this community. It's not over when traffic signals are out. It's not over when kids are home from school and out playing" when there are power lines down.In Washington, Congress is expected to consider a relief bill for victims of Hurricane Ike and other recent natural disasters soon, and Rep. John Yarmuth, D-3rd District, has asked that the Louisville region be included.He did not request a specific amount because damage assessment is still being conducted in the Louisville area, according to his spokesman, Stuart Perelmuter.Residents clean upWhile government and utility crews busied themselves with cleanup, residents throughout the area continued straightening up their own messes. Today Louisville will open 10 sites for residents to dump their storm debris without charge. Early yesterday, Old Louisville neighbors Joseph Bianca and Jim Redmon started clearing up the many tree branches that had rained down on their yards. "It got a little scary," Redmon said. "I had no clue how bad it was going to get." It was the type of mess that Bianca had hoped he would not have to deal with again after moving to Louisville from Miami, where hurricane damage is more routine. "Part of why we moved here was to try to avoid this," he said. "It was certainly worse than we thought it was going to be." Yesterday, Susan Haile and her fiance, Brian Thomas, surveyed the damage at their rented house on Taylor Boulevard near Oleanda Avenue. A tree fell through their roof Sunday, pinning Haile inside her bathroom. Thomas had to pull her from the wreckage as the winds ripped through their neighborhood. "All I could do was scream," said Haile, 49. "Everything went black." She suffered two ruptured vertebrae in her neck and bruises all over her body. She had no money to fill her pain medicine prescription and no health insurance. Still, both were thankful that Haile was not more seriously injured. The couple moved here in May, and their belongings were unsalvageable, save for a pile of clothes and a family photo album. They got alternative housing with help from the American Red Cross. Because temperatures remain cool, the city hasn't opened any shelters, Abramson said. If the need arises, he said city officials will work with the Red Cross to come up with a plan. Trying to make doOthers found comfort in the face of no electricity by coping together — like the 100 or so women at The Healing Place at 16th Street and Broadway. "We were able to make fried bagels and coffee the old-fashioned way this morning," said Michelle Kraus, a peer mentor. "There are no lights or hot water, but the weather is OK, so we don't need the air conditioning right now. All in all, we're doing fine."Others weren't in quite as good a mood about the storm's aftermath.Dale and Ron Rein are tired of seeing trees fall around their house on Cannons Lane in St. Matthews. It's starting to feel like they're jinxed. Yesterday, a Ford truck owned by a tile contractor sat smashed in their driveway after a tree fell on it Sunday. The tree also damaged gutters at the house.The truck was in their driveway because nine months earlier a tornado uprooted a large tree, smashing the house into splinters and forcing the Reins to rebuild."We are down" and "running out of patience," Dale Rein said. Reporter Jessie Halladay can be reached at (502) 582-4081. Reporter Dan Klepal can be reached at (502) 582-4475. Reporters Jim Carroll, Martha Elson, Sara Cunningham, Grace Schneider and Alex Davis contributed to this report.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Interesting Quote from Mayor of Galveston

"We want our citizens to stay where they are," said a weary Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas. "Do not come back to Galveston. You cannot live here at this time" = FNC


This is the lady who two days before the storm wasn't willing to order a mandatory evacuation!

With over 2,000 who stayed on the island it is just lucky the surge forecast busted, because if it had been over 20 feet of water there would most likely be many hundreds dead.

HLG

OOPs. Sorry we didn't forecat hurricane-force wind!

Winds' strength more intense than expected
By Gregory A. Hall • ghall@courier-journal.com • September 15, 2008

The National Weather Service in Louisville had forecast a wind advisory for the area yesterday -- with sustained winds of 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph.

The reality was far more intense, with reports of winds between 60 and 70 mph.
The surprise came because the remnants of Hurricane Ike intensified as they headed northeast from southern Illinois, and a cold front behind the storm accelerated, said Angela Lese, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Louisville.
"Whatever was left of Hurricane Ike just really accelerated to the northeast a lot quicker than expected," she said, noting the storm travelled from southern Illinois past Cleveland in about four hours. While the storm passed to the north of Louisville, "it drug that cold front through us," Lese said, which increased the winds ahead of it.
The changes from the forecast also meant the only rainfall received in the region was spotty and short lived, she said.
"Most of the rain went north," Lese said. "We just kind of ended up in a lull between thunderstorms along a squall line to our south (in Tennessee and farther south) and then the heavy rain associated with Ike to our north."

1400 Weather Ob at LOU KY on 9-14-8

13:56

SW 38 G 75

5.00
Fair with Haze and Windy
CLR
86
62
87
78
29.55
999.9

Sunday, September 14, 2008

"IKE" Causes Chaos in Kentucky!

Tropical dpression with 35 kt winds + movement of 30 kts = winds over 70 mph!



"A significant amount of time" to restore power, LG&E says


Residents can expect to be without power for as long as a week after the remnants of Hurricane Ike blew through the Ohio Valley, downing more than 1,100 power lines in Jefferson County area alone.More than 300,000 homes and businesses across Kentuckiana were without power because of strong winds that reached 75 mph. The storms temporarily shut down the interstates and Louisville airports, and it prompted Jefferson County Public Schools and Archdiocese of Louisville school to close Monday."We have activated the state's emergency operation center and transportation operation center, which have the capacity to operate around the clock to coordinate all the Commonwealth's emergency agencies, if necessary," Gov. Steve Beshear said. "Our emergency management personnel are monitoring the situation closely. We are working to support local first responders to ensure a quick response to damage created by the storm."Chip Keeling, a spokesman for LG&E, said people should start thinking about “making arrangements” to stay with family or friends who have power. It was the worst power outage in 30 years, he said.Only 115,000 customers were without power during an ice and snow storm in 2004 and only 84,000 were without power as a result of the 1974 tornado.“It will take a significant amount of time to restore power,” Keeling said.In Southern Indiana, Duke Energy reported 21,647 customers without power in Clark County, 21,538 in Floyd County, about 5,300 in Harrison County and about 3,600 in Washington County. Harrison REMC reported about 90 percent of its customers without power, or 20,000 customers in Harrison, Floyd, Clark, Washington and Crawford counties.So far, no deaths or serious injuries have been reported in the Louisville area, according to the Louisville mayor’s office.Mayor Jerry Abramson has called in public works employees, and LG&E is calling in extra staff to deal with all the downed trees and lines

Saturday, September 13, 2008

SLOSH Showing it's Limits

The model was just not showing this magnitude of flooding, this far east of landfall. Probably never will. - HLG

"There is extensive flooding in Terrebonne Parish due to Hurricane Ike.
"We could have as many as 10,000 homes and / or structures flooded inTerrebonne Parish," said Public Information Officer Bill Dodd.
"We're taking people out of the high water area and making them safe,"said Sheriff Vernon Bourgeois. "By boat, by deuce and a half and otherhigh water vehicle."

MORE>http://wwl.com/Thousands-of-homes-flooded-in-Terrebonne/2961001

New Automated Tide Gauges

It appears SLOSH may be overestimating the surge. Not sure yet, but the USGS deployed a bunch of portable/disposable automated tide guages just before the storm. Highest reports so far are around 12 feet. High, but certainly not 20. They are still sticking with 20, so SLOSH runs must be showing that. Oddly (and this is and odd storm) they are predicting highest surge may be AFTER the eye. Hmmm. (please ignore NHC mis-spelled "gage")

HLG


"COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGEAND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPERTEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS AGREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZEOF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COASTARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS" - NHC

It's getting grim in Galveston

20,000 stayed in Galveston. Could be very, very, bad.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/post_50.html

Friday, September 12, 2008

HOUSTON RADAR


Eye of the hurricane is around 80 miles (from radar). I think the eyewall will be over Galveston/Houston much sooner than midnight tonight. Could it be in a few hours?

Quote from a reporter "I don't think anyone saw this coming..."

Really?

BB

SHELL PLATFORM - AUGER



Either the platform is in the eye - or suffering major damage. NOAA just published storm surge plots for Galveston Bay - looks to be over 20ft surge (at least).

BB

NWS Houston Statement

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONSNOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORYHOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGECONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREADAND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADSWILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIREFLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAYEXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS INMULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BEWORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVESWILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OFHOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROMBEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

Maybe LHC Is Causing Strange Behavior of "IKE"?

If not, the video of the CERN Rap is still very entertaining, and strangely informative.

HLG

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wwozHsmVQI

Thursday, September 11, 2008

JUST BECAUSE IT BUGS ME

I saw the following link on CNN - "Keeping Palin Honest." I thought that was a strange post since I didn't remember seeing a "Keeping Biden Honest" link. So I did a Google Search for "Keeping Palin Honest" (with quotes!) and came up with 1,970 search hits. When I typed "Keeping Biden Honest" (with quotes!) I didn't get any hits - but I did get links like "Joe Biden is a Decent, Honest Man."

Which leads me to believe that no one wants to keep Biden honest - just Palin.

Just bugs me... But I'm sure the Webmistress will delete my post since it might offend.

BB

"IKE"s Windfield BIGGER than "K"

Ike's wind field is now larger than that of Katrina, the storm that devastated New Orleans in 2005, said Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc.
``The total amount of energy is more powerful than Katrina, so we could be seeing a storm surge that could rival Katrina,'' Masters said. The storm is so large ``the location doesn't matter much; it is going to inundate a huge part of the Texas coast.''

Inland Winds from "IKE"


This graphic from WSE is one of the best I have seen mapping the inland winds to be expected from "IKE". I think we focus too much on the coast-line with our watches/warnings, but this shows the vast area (> 30 million people) that will effected by major winds. Poor Louisiana. Most of SW/NW LA was relatively spared the power outages from"GUSTAV". Not this time. GEAUX TIGRES! (Can't cancel that big game against North Texas, no way!)



HLG

Integrated Kinetic Engergy (IKE) YIKES!


Very interesting post by BB on total Integrated Kinetic Energy. Everyone knows the surge from "K" was anomolously high, but our research community has been rather quiet the past few years offering a better system to explain this. The scatterometry continues to show that very large area of moving water from the windfield. The latest forecast is finally stating 20 foot surge. The single track runs must all be showing that now. Could be significantly higher in localized areas, but once you get to 2-3 STORIES high, what the heck!


HLG


BUOY 42001



Hurricane Ike is going to drive over Buoy 42001. I am absolutely confident that it will "weather the storm."

BB

Remnants of "JOSEPHINE"? "K" Storm?


If you look at your high-res visible loops north of Puerto Rico there is something spinning at the surface with a little convection. Is this the remnants of "Josephine"? Will this be the "K" storm of 2008? Will it be the fifth storm in five consecutive weeks to flood Haiti? Meanwhile NHC doesn't even have it as "LPTF" area.

HLG

Galveston Decides Against Mandatory Evacuation?

Better to "shelter in place"? Huh?

"In Galveston, city officials ordered mandatory evacuations for part of the island town beginning at 7 a.m. CT (8 a.m. ET) Thursday. The rest of the town will be under a voluntary evacuation order. Only residents will be required to evacuate on the western end of the island.
Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas defended this decision, saying current models call for Galveston to be hit with winds and rain only equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane.
"We do not intend to evacuate Galveston Island," she said. "It's the last thing we want to do. Our job is to protect lives and property, [and] right now we feel that sheltering in place is the best action for our citizens to take" - CNN.com

Strange Oceanographic Analysis by the NHC


When you look at this recent MCCST/Altimetry composite image, and the following NHC observation in the most recent discussion, do you agree???



"OCEANICCONDITIONS APPEAR NEUTRAL ALONG THE PATH OF IKE AS IT WILL LIKELYTRAVERSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES OVER THEWESTERN GULF. " ??? Huh??


HLG

"LARGE HURRICANE IKE"

Anyone notice the NHC is using a new description for this storm? They tend to reserve "DANGEROUS HURRICANE" for Cat 3 and above. This storm is like Katrina in it's size, so now it appear it is officially a "LARGE HURRICANE". The surge event for the Galveston Bay area is looking worse with each forecast. Also, is there such a thing as a "SAFE HURRICANE"? Can't miss that they have added Coastal MS into the TS Warning area now, and I guess all of Lake Pontchartrain must be included, although they didn't say. GEAUX TIGRES!!! (can't cancel the game, oh no, coach says we gotta play DUH!)

HLG

Puzzling Decision of LSU to Host Home Football Game

Critical game, of course, against might North Texas. This is really strange since the mayor did not want them to do it, nor the police, council, etc. (see article). They also had reserved Texas Stadium, and Shreveport Stadium as perfectly reasonable alternatives. Of course putting fans on the road in evacuation zones would be stupid as well. Why not CANCEL THE STUPID GAME!?

Football games criticized

Officials say they’ll try to handle traffic
By SCOTT DYER
Advocate staff writer
Published: Sep 11, 2008 - Page: 1B - UPDATED: 12:05 a.m.

With widespread power outages, piles of storm debris and inoperable traffic signals in the wake of Hurricane Gustav, city-parish officials said it was not their idea for LSU and Southern University to play home football games Saturday in Baton Rouge.
But city-parish staffers told the Metro Council on Wednesday that they plan to respond as best they can to make the games as safe as possible for the thousands of fans who will converge on the capital city to cheer on their teams.
The seating capacity at Tiger Stadium is 92,500 while the seating capacity at Southern’s A.W. Mumford Stadium is 25,500. Those numbers do not include tailgaters.
The city-parish’s plans call for debris-clearing crews to focus on Highland Road, a narrow two-lane road that is a main artery to Tiger Stadium, before LSU is slated to play the University of North Texas.
Metro Councilman Byron Sharper questioned the wisdom of making Highland Road a priority when thousands of East Baton Rouge Parish residents are waiting for huge piles of storm debris to be picked up from their front yards.
“It doesn’t sound right or look right for us to be talking about a football game at a time like this,” Sharper said.
The mayor’s chief administrative officer, Walter Monsour, said city-parish is merely trying to remove debris not only on main routes to the LSU game, but also to the Southern University-Mississippi Valley State game.
The debris poses a traffic hazard and needs to be dealt with, Monsour said, noting that debris pickup efforts are continuing in other parts of the parish.
The decision to play those games was made by the schools, Monsour said.
“It will put a cramp in our style to have 140 officers working both of those games,” Monsour said.
Metro Councilman Ulysses “Bones” Addison said the games will likely mean “total chaos” for the parish, not only because of the debris but also because of the widespread power outages and the fact that more than 100 traffic signals still aren’t functioning.
“Shame on us all,” Addison said.

"IKE" windfield from Scatterometry on 9-10-8


Very impressive signature from radar-scat.


HLG

"IKE" Windfield Forecast


This graphic, from the outstanding Stormpulse.com tool shows the current NHC forecasted windfield, just prior to landfall on Sat/Sun. The hurricane winds will stretch from east of Port Arthur , TX on the Louisiana border, to near Corpus Christi! This is simply unprecedented in modern times for Texas. You have to go back to pre-modern measurement storms, most-likely The Great Galveston Storm, or before, to find this kind of wind event! Yikes!

HLG

Key Similarity of "IKE" to "KATRINA"

"IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDOUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICALSTORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM." - NHC

The fact that "IKE" has such a large hurricane-force windfield is a key similarity with that "K" storm. This was the single most important factor in the massive storm surge. The peculiar track that is forecast, with a sharp right-turn at landfall could trap a massive surge in the general Galveston Bay area. It doesn't matter much to the SLOSH model if the storm is a 3 or 4 at this point, with that massive windfield that is unlikely to change before landfall. As we get closer to 24 hours from landfall they will be publishing the results of the "single-track" runs of SLOSH to get the warnings of the details of this surge out. What I don't see now, looking at the Houston Chronicle web-site, and others, is that they aren't focused on this deadly threat. Surge is the biggest killer in hurricanes, especially in the physcial geography of the Gulf of Mexico states. I think it is criminal that the NFL and MLB hasn't decided to move their games at this late hour. Very bad messages are being sent.

HLG

Climatological Surge Potential for Texas

The current NHC forecast track, and historical runs of the SLOSH model currently warn that somewhere between Freeport and Galveston, TX, if the track/intensity are good, there will be a surge between 15-20 feet over a large area. This is a deadly surge scenario, and hopefully people in that very low area (remember Galveson has over 50,000 people living on a sandbar) get out early!

HLG

Houston, "IKE" and Bad Evacuation Scenario

In a previous post, BB astutely observed that the situation with "IKE" and evacuation of Houston/Galveston is getting to the critical phase. Luckily the storm is moving slowly, and giving a little more time to plan. Notice the Houston Texans haven't even post-poned/moved their home game Sunday, and it is now Thursday. Bad signal there. The Housont metro area is over 6.5 million people. The storm is forecast to make a sharp right turn at land-fall, this complicating which direction the individual evacuee decides to go (right of left on I-10?) Wrong turn and you could drive into the direction of a strengthening hurricane. Ouch! The evacuation for Rita was handled very poorly, and the upper Texas Coast hasn't been hit by a category 4 storm since the Great Galveston Hurricane. Very tough situation for emergency managers, not to mention the citizens of the country's fourth largest metropolis.

HLG

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

BRECK CENSORS CAVEMAN!!!!

What has happened to freedom of speech? Where will "Caveman" go to air his horrible predictions? Who else will feel the wrath of Caveman - besides GG?

Where does this leave us an a nation of bloggers? I, for one, am distressed....

"Father of All Storms"

If "Gustav" was the Mother-of-all-Storms, it certainly appears the "Ike" may become the Father-of-all-Storms. Maybe NOLA should evacuate just because? What does Ray say???

Last Cat-4 landfall in mainland US was Hurricane Andrews, in 1992? When was the last in Texas???

HLG

Latest FUNKTOP Enhancement of "IKE"


I was just looking at the latest imagery, including the Funktop curve (anyone know what the heck that is?), and it does appear that Ike's center has reformed a bit to the north/right of the track. Hmmmm.

HLG

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

"IKE" Pinpoint Eye Night-time Visible


Cat 1? Can we get a plane out there please!

Looks like a strengthening Cat 2 from here.

Latest track looks like Ike will be over Texas a long time. Could be a major flooding event in the Hill Country if this track holds.

HLG

"IKE" Emerges from Cuba with Pinpoint Eye

Anyone else get the feeling that the intensity models are going low on this one? I stick by my Corpus Christi forecast, but feel the strength will be higher. A "strong" Cat 4 is to be expected.

HLG

Excellent Surge Explanation Map from NOLA.com


I thought this was an unusually good analysis of the details of the surge from "Gustav".

Also, the Cuban Meteorological Service had interesting observations on the recent hurricanes:

""In all of Cuba's history, we have never had two hurricanes this close together," said Jose Rubiera, head of Cuba's meteorological service"

HLG

Monday, September 8, 2008

Five Story High Breaking Waves in Cuba

Beauty Shot of "IKE" Just Before Cuba Landfall


Has anyone noticed that the forecast point where "IKE" should leave Cuba is almost EXACTLY where Gustav was when he crossed Cuba?

Weird.


HLG

LARGE HADRON COLLIDER

Slated to flip the switch in two days. I wonder how many black holes it will create... and to think we are worried about Ike.

http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2008/09/08/all_eyes_on_collider_as_it_comes_to_life/

BB

Who Needs a Hurricane (Record Flooding in Northern England

http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/09/07/rush.ithaca.mystery.itn

Sunday, September 7, 2008

It's About That Time

Well fellow Wx Geeks, it's about time to play our little guessing game again. Let's say that all "predictions" for Ike's landfall must be posted to the site, under this thread by 11:59pm CDT on Sunday, September 7, 2008. You must predict both the landfall location and intensity. Winner gets a Coke. Damn, we forgot to play our game for Hanna ... must have been burned out from G-man.

Did anyone announce the winner for Gustav???

Wonder where HLG is this morning?? I was disappointed to not see any posts.

Feelin sorry for the folks in the Turks & Caicos Islands this morning ... taking a direct hit from Ike @ 115kts.

Later,

KF

Saturday, September 6, 2008

GARY ENGLAND RULES!

I'm tired of the Bob Breck crap. He can't even touch the world's only weather expert - Gary England in Oklahoma City. See for yourself.

BB

He's At It Again

Now, our good friend at WVUE is dissing Dr. Master's for what he perceives to be a predicition that Ike will hit anywhere from Texas to the FL Panhandle. I think Dr. Master's is a little smarter than that ... in fact, I had read his blog last night and what I read was an excellent analysis of the different synoptic patterns and how the different scenarios could effect the future track of IKE. That is a helluva lot more than I have ever seen from Breck's blog. Seems to me that Bob has taken Dr. Master's analysis out of context and is smearing (probably a little harsh) his name to perpetuate his as the voice of reason.

You can also tell that some of the more knowledgeable people who read Breck's blog are getting tired of the fact that he spends more time trying to manipulate his image and not enough time on meteorological analysis. I agree that trying to predict a landfall for a storm this early in the game is not only IMPOSSIBLE, but IRRESPONSIBLE. However, there is absolutely nothing wrong with discussing the potential scenarios for a tropical system and keeping people informed as long as you keep things in context. Seems to me that Mr. Breck wants people to be concerned on his timeline and I think this is a disservice to his viewers. I wonder if he ever admitted that the NHC nailed Gustav ... I know that I did.

KF

Outage Map for LA


Gustav Power Outages

I have been asked several times what I did for the NOLA Emergency Management Office. I made many, many, maps like these. They are somewhat useful.

HLG

Friday, September 5, 2008

"IKE" Keeps Digging South and West

Not good, if you live in the northern Gulf Coast.

"IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELCONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWESTOF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED" -NHC (after four consecutive forecasts further south and west than the previous)

also ....

"BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHTAND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LANDINTERACTION. " - NHC (land in question would be western Cuba!)

This could also be the fourth week in a row that Haiti gets flooding rains from a tropical system, Fay three weeks ago, Gustav two weeks ago, Hanna last week, and now Ike! YIKES!!

HLG

Gustav Muddies Cuban Waters


This image from MODIS shows the normally crystal clear waters off Cuba are still extremely turbid a week after Gustav passed.


HLG

Thursday, September 4, 2008

New and Improved NHC Satellite Page


Has anyone notice all the new choices on the NHC satellite page? You can now pick from:


AVN


DVORAK


JSL


RGB


FUNKTOP (whatever THAT is!)


and my favorite RAINBOW (ahhh)


This was the latest rainbow enhancement of "IKE" Beware of "IKE"!


HLG (not the latest NHC IR enhancement!)


Surviving After a Storm


Everyone who goes through a hurricane needs one of these. It serves two purposes:
1. Cooking meals
2. Taking care of looters
just a little levity as we regroup our fried brains and look ahead to H, I, and J.
gg

Tropical Cyclone?


Or Political Storm?

They just can't drop this one, but how is it any more tropical that Gustav's remnants were for days in LA?

This does not appear to be a warm cored system!


HLG

French Curve Not Good


Anyone notice that if you take out your NHC French Curves and lay them on the four storms being tracked, that the overall best fit is somewhere in the Northen Gulf of Mexico?

Not good if you are a trend modeler.


HLG

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Please explain "HANNA"

I need a modeling expert to explain TS Hanna. The models have been chaotic with this storm, and I can't even find the thing in stallite images. What do the buoys say?

The models are persistant that a strong hurricane is going to suddenly jump out of the mess in the southern Bahamas and hit GA/SC by Saturday. HUH?

HLG

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Big Bad "IKE"


Time to get over that gustav hang-over. Ike has one very large, symmetrical wind-field. Not a lot of convection around the center yet, but the the scatterometry signature is quite impressive.


HLG

Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine? OH MY!

I have a question for the brain-trust out there. Both "FAY" and "GUSTAV" were widely forecasted to stall, and neither did. What is wrong with this part of the forecast? How did they get it so good up to the coast, then can't predict a stall correctly?

Is "IKE" going to get into the Gulf? Looks like "HANNA" will be an East Coast problem, not that I am praying for that or anything.

Latest images of "IKE" show a really wound up little goober (technical term).

HLG

Monday, September 1, 2008

Get Over "GUSTAV" (Is the 2008 season peaking or just warming up?)




TD 9, soon to be "TS/Hurricane Ike" heading for the Gulf next week?




I don't like the name of this one at all.




HLG


Potentially Tornadic Band About to Roll Over NOLA

Looks like the next band that rolls into the City of New Orleans could be the worst yet.

Gustav Welcomed in Carriere, MS

A quiet night here in Carriere. Looks like Gustav is limping ashore this morning as a CAT 2. Just had our strongest gust, at least since I've been up. Hard to gauge the sustained winds because I'm pretty well sheltered here at my house, but I would guess 15 MPH with gusts to 20 -25MPH. Raining in waves with a couple o fheavy downpours so far. Think I'll invest in a Wx Station next so I can get some real obs ;-)

Snapped some pictures to post, but nothing of significance to report at this time. The power has flashed a couple of times, but no reason to start up the generator yet, although I'm itching to feel the 16kW of raw power.

Although I hate to, I will bow down to the Gods at the NHC for their forecast. Even through yesterday, I didn't think Gustav would turn as much as he did as he approached the coast. Guess that's why I'm an IT weenie, er Manager ... Has anyone seen a landfall location yet, or haven't they made the call. Vermillion Bay may be pretty close.

KF

Checking in from Cyprus


We have power, and water since today is Monday. If it was Tuesday we would have no water. If I was in the Turkish side there would be a brownout due to the heat, but it is Labor Day, so I am in Greece.

HLG

Good Morning Gustav!

video

1 Sep 2008 - 0800 - Got light enough to get some video- Heavy rain squalls and gusting to 55 or 60 here. Haven't lost power yet but it has been going on and off all night. Expect we will be dark at some time soon. The power can't hold out much longer. We just made a fresh pot of coffee and about to make some eggs and bacon while we can. Waiting for reports from the other weathergeeks at their locations but not sure if they have power. gg

Let's here some love for the NHC!

Look back at the forecast. The track and landfall in Louisiana were amazingly accurate form roughly the time the storm was over Jamaica last week! The were some intensity fluctuations which were underestimated before Cuba landfall, and overestimated in the Gulf, but the track it amazingly accurate!

HLG